Wednesday, May 27, 2009

If the Gold Price Can't Break Through US$965 in the Next Day or Two it will Fall Back

Gold Price Close Today : 953.30
Change: 0 or 0%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.856
Change: 26.5 cents or 1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 64.17
Change: -1.165 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial: 8,300.02
Change: -173.47 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.80
Change: 0.71 or 0.9%

Mmmmmm. . . Strange day.

The gold price closed on the Comex (1:30 EST) unchanged on the day at US$953.30, but 5 hours later is about $5.00 lower. Double closes leave me antsy, since they often (not always) lead to reversals.

What argues against the gold price reversing? The silver price, that climbed 26.5 cents today to 14.8560 at Comex close, and knocked on the door of fifteen bucks much of the day.

The metals' performance today becomes more respectable when you learn that the US $ Index rose a hefty 70.5 basis points to 80.80. Short term my mind is changing about the dollar, moving to neutral rather than bearish. A small rally is possible here before yet another BIG plunge downside.

The Dow today held on to a suspicious 8,300.02 while the S&P500 fell below 900, a bad blow to morale. Back and forth, back and forth burns up a market's ammunition (buying power) -- ammo stocks can ill afford to lose. No future here for a long time yet. Maybe your grandchildren will want to buy stocks.

As good as gold and silver price look here, brace yourself for a fall. If gold can't break through US$965 in the next day or so, it will fall back. If it breaks out over 965 and silver confirms with a higher close, buy both. If they fall back, wait a few days to see where it will settle.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.