Thursday, November 19, 2009

Once the Gold Price Clears $1,150, it Will Jump Again

Gold Price Close Today : 1141.40
Change: 0.70 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.447
Change: 0.40 cents or 0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1441.50
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 369.65
Change: 0.00 or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.87
Change: 0.037 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,332.44
Change: -93.87 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index: 75.28
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

Over the last five days the GOLD PRICE has left behind an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. Looks like $1123.55 - $1127 was resistance, then gold broke through that and jumped to $1,144, touched back to $1,27.70 to make sure, and yesterday whacked hard on $1,150's door. Today it bounced off $1,150 and retraced to $1,130, but closed on Comex at $1,141.40 (up 70 cents) but traded higher in the aftermarket to $1,145.30. Present blockade lies at $1,150. Once gold clears that, it will jump again, another $30 - $50.

Since September the SILVER PRICE has made a series of gains solidified and confirmed by successful reaction tests. It leapt from $13.50 in August to $17.60, successfully proved that gain in a reaction to $15.80. Then came another jump to $18.00, reaction and defense at $16.06, followed by a leap to $17.50, test of $17.00, and surge to $18.80 yesterday. Today it backed off to $18.13, but closed on Comex up 4 cents at $18.447. Right now its trading at $18.57.

Do y'all perceive a pattern?

Silver must close below $18.00 to threaten its uptrend. Very little resistance stands between here and the old high at $20.68. Short, shallow corrections may come at any time, but the Big Rally has by no means ended yet. Keep buying.

Over the past three days the US $ Index has made higher lows (slightly) but been blocked at highs of 75.60. That forms a rising flat-topped triangle. Generally, but not always by any means, that formation breaks out to the upside. Meanwhile the dollar is staging a lousy performance. Up a few basis points one day, down 30 or more the next, and never quite able to put distance between itself and dangerous support at 74.90. Must either break through 75.60 above or will fall clean through 74.90 and further. My money's on that latter outcome. Scrofulous dollar closed today at 75.284, up 10 basis points. Situation deteriorating but still undecided.

STOCKS have formed an island top in the last five days. Friday the Dow topped at 10,300, then Monday jumped clean to 10,360 - 10,440, traded there Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, then dropped to 10,300 today and rallied up to 10,350. Still looks like an island top to me, although technically an island top has gaps on either side. Stocks must now close above 10,450 to disprove a top in place. Any close below 10,200 leads speedily to 9,700. Get out of stocks. Get. Out. Now.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.