Tuesday, June 22, 2010

As Long As The Gold Price Remains Above $1,190 It Stays In An Uptrend.

Gold Price Close Today : 1239.90
Change: -0.20 or -0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.896
Change 9.4 cents or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1583.00
Change: -6.05 or -0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 484.50
Change: -10.45 or -2.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.62
Change: -0.339 or -0.5%

Dow Industrial: 10,293.52
Change: -148.89 or -1.4%

US Dollar Index: 86.10
Change: 0.17 or 0.2%

Following up on yesterdays comments about options expiry on this Thursday, here are the strike prices where options are clustered:
$19.00 strike, 2,000 each
$18.50 725 each
$18.00 1,400 each

$1,250 strike, 8,188 ea.
$1,230, 1,230 ea
$1,220, 4,000 ea.
$1,210, 2,500 ea.
$1,200, 8,700 ea.

Looking at that, expect to see efforts (1) to keep the GOLD PRICE from topping $1,250, and (2) to drive the gold price below $1,220 and $1,200, if even only to $1,198 on Thursday's close.

In silver, expect a fight to keep the SILVER PRICE away from $19.00, and to drive it down below $18.50.

Nothing says that the manipulators will win, only that they will surely try.

Face it: as long as the gold price remains below $1,250 doubt hangs over the market. Was that $1,250+ close only a tease, a fake-out, a false breakout, or was it real? This week options expiry clouds things with a transitory force. As long as the gold price remains above $1,190 it stays in an uptrend.

Today the gold price closed on Comex at $1,239.90, up a meager 20c. For my purposes that's a portentous double close with yesterday, & may presage a change of trend, up or down. Today's trading resolves nothing, says nothing.

Here's a tasty morsel: the Gold/Silver ratio closed 65.56 on Friday, 65.93 yesterday, and 65.62 today. Although it rose yesterday, today it fell. If the uptrend for silver and gold were turning, that ratio would be rising, probably sharply.

The silver price today rose 9.4c to close $18.896. It pleases me that it remains above $18.80. Today's trading essentially continued sideways from yesterday. Oh, it rose to $19.00 but then backed off. Low was $18.57. This gives us a range to gauge tomorrow's performance: a move below $18.50 takes silver down, a move above $19.00 turns it up.

Lift up your eyes to the hills, and look at the far horizon! Long term SILVER and GOLD PRICES remain in a primary uptrend (bull market). Today's struggles are only to determine how much faster they will rise, not whether they will rise. Keep your eyes on the long term, buy more whenever
the price dips.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.