Gold Price Close Today : 1,213.50
Gold Price Close 6-Aug : 1,203.30
Change : 10.20 or 0.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 1810
Silver Price Close 6-Aug : 1845.9
Change : -35.90 or -1.9%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,522.00
Platinum Price Close 6-Aug : 1,570.90
Change : -48.90 or -3.1%
Palladium Price Close Today : 475.00
Palladium Price Close 6-Aug : 489.75
Change : -14.75 or -3.0%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 67.04
Gold Silver Ratio 6-Aug : 65.19
Change : 1.86 or 2.8%
Dow Industrial : 10,303.15
Dow Industrial 6-Aug : 10,653.56
Change : -350.41 or -3.3%
US Dollar Index : 82.927
US Dollar Index 6-Aug : 80.351
Change : 2.58 or 3.2%
Rough week for SILVER and GOLD PRICES, but rougher still for stocks, and a re-birth for the US Dollar.
The US DOLLAR hit its 200 day moving average and caught, swung round like a bull gibbon on a limb, and turned up. On Wednesday it rose a gargantuan 165 basis points to close at 82.457. The dollar spent the rest of the week making good its gains. Some time next week it may snooze and correct, but its intermediate trend has clearly turned up, as it stands above its 200 DMA (80.83) and 20 DMA (81.82). Since its bottom at 70.70 in March 2008, the dollar has made a series of higher lows and higher highs, with the exception of the last high in June. Now it has completed a 60% correction of the November 2009 to June 2010 correction caught on its 200 week moving average, and turned up like ready-to-eat catfish in boiling lard (floats up when done). The dollar is headed to 90 or higher, unless it scratches all that with a close below 80.
What is the chart telling us? That no matter what kind of scurvy, mangy dog the US dollar may be, the Euro, Yen, pound, and Yuan are scurvier and mangier still. Will a rising dollar stymie silver and gold? Nope. Certainly hasn't so far. Same day the dollar rose 165 basis points the stock market fell 265.42 points while gold added $1.30. Oh, a rising dollar may slow silver and gold down, but stop them? Hardly, not as long as Bouncin' Ben Bernanke and Bingo Obama are in charge, because spend and print they will.
That rising wedge in the DOW and S&P500 had been warning that a downside plunge awaited, and it struck this week. After the Fed Open Market Committee's announcement on Tuesday stocks fell 58.88, but were already struggling to keep a nose above 10,650. Wednesday somebody threw an anvil to the Dow, and it sank 265.42 points. Now the Dow's trend is firmly down, with support around 8900, then again around 8,100, then 6,500. If you are holding stocks, sell while you still can.
The difference between the GOLD PRICE and the Dow appears most sharply in the chart for the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$). Chart is identical to the Dow in Gold Ounces, except it's calibrated differently because a statutory "dollar" of gold equals 0.048375 troy ounce. This week the DiG$ collapsed fro G$184.19 (8.910 oz) to GS175.51 (8.49 OZ). THE The DiG$ stands at its 50 day moving average (G$175.41) but below its 200 DMA (G$187.54), which it lately revisited. Intermediate target lies somewhere below the 2009 low at G$145.00 (6.362 oz). Ultimate target is G$20.67 or one ounce of gold to buy the whole Dow.
From last Friday's heights the SILVER PRICE fell down to $17.80 on Wednesday, no doubt pulled down with stocks. However, that didn't last and the silver price began immediately working its way back up. Its performance yesterday and today (closed on Comex at 1810c up 4.7c) left me less than chest-beating, hair-pulling enthusiastic. Adding to that vexation, the Gold/Silver ratio peeked back above 67, although still within the big even-sided triangle.
Silver has been trapped beneath $18.60, and nothing exciting will happen until the silver price clears that mark. Above that hangs $20.00, the genuinely tough resistance. Once the silver price climbs over that, get out of the way. Until then, we will have to listen to bears croaking and whining that the bull market is over. Ignore them. Switch on some Mozart and drown them out.
From beneath the silver price must hold $17.00. I believe it has turned up. Falling stocks will keep dragging on silver.
With all the turmoil and back and forth, gold has merely bumped into the uptrend line from the November 2008 bottom. This week gold performed well, dropping back and handily defending $1,195 support and shooting up yesterday to $1,215. But today disappointed, with gold down $1.00 to $1,213.50. I don't like that. At the end of the week that selling resistance at $1,215 should not have prevailed.
But longer term gold remains on track for higher prices. Big resistance to beat now is $1,215 - 1,218, then $1,230, then $1,257, the last all-time high. Be patient, and continue to accumulate gold and silver.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentums et aurum comparanda sunt --
-- Silver and gold must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.