Gold Price Close Today : 1373.60
Change : 9.00 or 0.7%
Silver Price Close Today : 30.693
Change : 0.164 cents or 0.5%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 44.75
Change : 0.054 or 0.1%
Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02234
Change : -0.000027 or -0.1%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1830.10
Change : -1.40 or -0.1%
Palladium Price Close Today : 837.60
Change : 4.85 or 0.6%
S&P 500 : 1,328.01
Change : -4.31 or -0.3%
Dow In GOLD$ : $184.00
Change : $ (1.82) or -1.0%
Dow in GOLD oz : 8.901
Change : -0.088 or -1.0%
Dow in SILVER oz : 398.35
Change : -1.38 or -0.3%
Dow Industrial : 12,226.64
Change : -41.55 or -0.3%
US Dollar Index : 78.59
Change : -0.020 or 0.0%
The GOLD PRICE cleared its 50 DMA today ($1,372.27, my criterion yesterday) so I can't fight it any longer. Next fence lies at $1,380, and gold ought to move faster now. A failure here -- a sudden drop back to $1,340 -- would look bad, but there's no hint that might happen. Gold added $9.00 on Comex, closing at $1,373.60.
The SILVER PRICE smashed down the 3065c gate and rose 16.4c to 3069.3c on Comex.
Okay, I am not imagining this. Silver appears to have completed a move up from 2980c, so tomorrow ought to be a down day, but not below 3040c.
And ANOTHER thing that the Internet Silver Cheerleaders haven't noticed is that the buy-side wholesale premium for US 90% silver coin is a negative 75c. Whatever else that says, it surely screams that plenty of silver is ready for sale. In all fairness that premium can drop while silver is rising, but a higher premium would indicate more buyers, and more buyers bring more upward buying pressure.
And anent that "backwardation:" there remaineth no backwardation (although a very flat contango) in the silver futures through December 2011. However, the very distant months, out in 2013, 2014, and 2015, are backwardated to February 2011. What exactly does that say? Oftentimes trading in those very distant months is so thin that the price trails the closer months. I don't know whether that is happening or not, but it might explain it.
My doubts will continue to fester until SILVER and GOLD confirm each other and their rally with new highs in both metals. I'm trying hard not to be stubborn (a really TALL job for anyone who's Scotch-Irish), but truth is, I have a really strange way of learning: I learn by making mistakes. Yes, more expensive than a University education, but also more lasting. And I have too many times been taken in, fooled, and had my pockets picked by double tops. Thus even one as stubborn as I learneth over time to buy the bottom of a range, or the breakout above a range, but never the little area right up under the resistance.
Silver this week ought to challenge that 3109 high from 3 January. That will be fish or cut bait time.
Mercy! If y'all have never seen a Tennessee morning looking across the bare fields thru a blue haze to the trees with their limbs raised in halleluiahs you can almost hear, y'all have not yet lived.
Y'all probably ought to just listen to what I say and pay no attention to what I do. I can't shake this out of synch-ness. I don't know whether I am just committed to my own opinion and "talking my position", or whether my suspicions might have some ground. Today ought to have shredded them.
"Talking your position" happens when somebody takes a losing position and keeps talking it up in the face of events, or, in the case of stock brokers and financial salesmen, when they are selling you on the inventory they want to move like a dying man wants a drink of water.
The Dollar Index didn't move enough today to affect the price of anything. It lost 2 basis points (did you say TWO basis points?) to end at 78.594. That's okay, because all it needed to do was hold above 78.50. If the dollar has indeed traced out an upside-down head and shoulders, then tomorrow and rest of the week it shouldn't drop below 78.50.
Almost all stock indices fell today, the Dow for the second straight day. What? Well, look at the five-day chart. Friday shows a peak above 12,280, followed the next two days by lower lows and lower highs. Dow dropped 41.55 points to 12,226.64 and S&P lost 4.31 at 1,328.01. A Dow close below 12,160 could push the snow-ball downhill. 20 day moving average awaits at 12,051.86.
A kind reader wrote yesterday to fill up the hole in my vocabulary with the wonderful word METASTABILITY. That's the market condition I described yesterday, where an equilibrium seems to rule, but in truth it is only a delicate balance of fiercely opposing forces. When one side's foot is pushed back just a little, big change follows.
On this day in 1971 Great Britain switched to a decimal-based currency, abandoning the sensible and division-friendly system of 240 pence to the pound (20 shillings of 12 pence each) in effect since Anglo Saxon times, no, that's wrong, since ROMAN times. Think about it. You divide a 100 pence pound by 20 or 10 or 5 or 2, but not by 3 or 6 or 12. A 240 pence pound you can divide by 20, 12, 10, 8, 6, 5, 3, or 2 and never end up with 2.5 or 16-1/6 or 33-1/3.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.