Wednesday, April 20, 2011

The Gold Price Will Go Higher Before this Rally Ends

Gold Price Close Today : 1498.30
Change : 3.80 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 44.465
Change : 0.546 cents or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 33.70
Change : -0.332 or -1.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02968
Change : 0.000290 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1804.00
Change : 32.50 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 760.75
Change : 29.05 or 4.0%

S&P 500 : 1,330.36
Change : 17.75 or 1.4%

Dow In GOLD$ : $171.82
Change : $ 2.16 or 1.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.312
Change : 0.105 or 1.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 280.08
Change : 4.17 or 1.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,453.54
Change : 186.79 or 1.5%

US Dollar Index : 74.36
Change : -0.678 or -0.9%

The GOLD PRICE was stopped today by $1,505, but backstopped by $1,495. After all the back and forth, the gold price closed on Comex at $1,498.30 (Shades of the Nice Government Men, warding off the strong psychological mojo of a $1,500+ close!) up $3.80.

Not much point discussing this, since y'all already know what I'm thinking. The gold price will reach at least the target from its inverse Head and Shoulders or $1,525, maybe $1,600. It's overbought some, but not like baby ducks at Easter time. We might get a correction lasting a couple of days, but then it will take off again, assuming it doesn't hit $1,525 before that. $1,502 in the aftermarket.

The GOLD PRICE will go higher before this rally ends. Higher, I say.

Here's a sample of how Comex closes alone can confound you. On Comex the SILVER PRICE ended at 4446.5c, up 54.6c. Not bad, but it ignores the silver price trading in the aftermarket above 4500c at 4524c right now.

Nag, nag, nag! What nags me now is that those white metals, platinum prices, and palladium prices, have been lagging badly. They made highs for the move back in February, and lower highs in April. Today they rose a bit, but nothing like those February highs. If silver and gold prices are so garlicky, why aren't platinum and palladium, which appear to be markets that have rolled over and started down?

Another thing I don't like is that discount on the wholesale buy price of US 90% silver coin. It has now reached $1.15 BELOW spot. Of course, that makes US 90% silver coin ("junk coin" in coin-dealer jargon) the very cheapest way to buy silver now, nearly $2.00 cheaper than .999 fine one oz silver rounds, so that's the only way to buy silver. But that widening discount often accompanies market tops.

All this pokes me in the ribs to swap SILVER (the whitish one) for gold (the yellow one) right now, as this spikey action in silver is screaming that some sort of peak draweth night.

But silver still is reaching for the moon. It's more overbought than cheap loud ties at Christmastime (I'm running low on metaphors here) but believe me, it is offering no other sign of topping out, except its extreme height. That does sort of sound silly, doesn't it, using its success as the strongest argument against it?

It's possible the gold price can run on this rally to $1,600 and the silver price to $50.

US DOLLAR INDEX reversed today, to the downside again. Began to weaken overnight, then broke 74.80 and sank like your mama's wedding ring that time you dropped it down the bathroom sink. Dropped 67.8 basis points to trade now at 74.351.

What meaneth this moiling? Simply that the US dollar index has staged a strong reversal falling to a new low for the move, and pointing it prow toward 74.25 minimum, and much more likely, 71.25, maybe 70.70. 'Tain't good.

The dollar's tergiversation sent that scabrous monster, the euro, gapping up for a marginal new high at 1.4542, up 1.26%. Trading now at 1.4521. Clearly the Fed is intent on lowering the US dollar's exchange rate. No accidents in currency exchange rates.

The Japanese yen (as opposed, I supposed, to the FRENCH yen) closed at Y82.48/$ (121.24c/Y100). that's about flat with yesterday.

STOCKS sprang the big surprise today. They ran up to the same high as April's, roughly roughly 12,450. Dow closed at 12,453.54 up 186.79 (1.52%). S&P rose 17.75 to 1,330.36, up 1.35%.

So what if I have grabbed the wrong tail on this dog and stocks are not breaking down but have been making an inverse head and shoulders? Well, if that's so, stocks might hit 13,345 before this is over (height of head added to neckline).

Ask me if I'm whimpering? Y'all already know the answer. If stocks gain 900 points, silver will gain twice as much, gold about the same. I lust for stocks the way some people lust for a root canal or bypass surgery.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.