Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Unless the Gold Price Turns Around Tomorrow and Clears $1,545, Lower Prices Lie in the Near Future

Gold Price Close Today : 1538.10
Change : (5.20) or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 36.619
Change : (0.421) or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.00
Change : 0.337 or 0.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02381
Change : -0.000193 or -0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1821.60
Change : -13.70 or -0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 804.05
Change : -3.95 or -0.5%

S&P 500 : 1,279.56
Change : -5.38 or -0.4%

Dow In GOLD$ : $161.94
Change : $ 0.27 or 0.2%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.834
Change : 0.013 or 0.2%

Dow in SILVER oz : 329.04
Change : 3.15 or 1.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,048.94
Change : -21.87 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 73.92
Change : 0.400 or 0.5%

When I say something looks "ragged" you think you know what I mean, but you have to look at today's Dow chart really to understand. See Looks likes a clothesline full of rags, hung out to dry on a windy day: down, up, down, up, down, DOWNNN, up, DOWNNN! Behold, a snapshot of a market breaking down, slapped back in every effort to rally. The close at 12,048.94, down only 21.87 (0.18%) simply can't tell the tale that chart tells. Notice, too, that the Dow edged closer to the fatal 12,000 level. Morale and what the gurus call "market psychology" will take a deep wound when the Dow sinks below that line. S&P500 today scored only a bit worse than the Dow, 1,279.56, down 5.38 or 0.42%.

Dow in Gold in Gold Dollars blew hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth today, up G$0.27 (0.013 oz) to G$161.94 (7.834 oz). Much like the Dow denominated in dollars, it has broken down already. Now it needs only to follow through.

Possible that stocks will reverse upward from here since they are very oversold, but if the Dow crosses 11,983, the rats will leave the ship so fast that it will tip over with their weight.

Somebody explain to me, please, what good the US dollar index is doing by closing down 40.1 basis points yesterday, and up 40 basis points today? Not much, but it sets up a chart pattern that might be an upside down head and shoulders. If so, the dollar will rally to 74.05 or so, drop again to 73.65-ish, then climb and pierce the neckline at 74.05 and rally a while. Otherwise, if it drops through 73.50, it will look like your last view of Ben Bernancubus or Little Timmy Geithner when you kick him out of the bay of a C47 over the Gulf of Mexico.

Mary Shelley's euro today fell in what resembles a little island reversal but might amount to nothing more than a blip. Closed down 0.51% at 1.4578.

Yen overcame its embarrassment and climbed over 125c/Y100 to 125.19c/Y100 (Y79.88/$). Yen has now reached its last high so bell is ringing for the Nice Japanese Government Men to step in and manipulate the yen lower. Otherwise nature might take over and make life tough for their export industry.

What a difference a day makes! That 5 day GOLD PRICE chart now clearly shows a spike peak to $1,553 on Monday and a rollover downward into today. The GOLD PRICE did not break support at $1,530 or $1,525, but neither could it climb higher than $1,542.78. Comex gold lost $5.20 by day's end, leaving it at $1,538.10. Gold's friends get noisy and itch to buy around $1,530. Unless gold turns around tomorrow and clears $1,545, lower prices lie in the near future, though. Keep looking ahead to the 20 day moving average at $1,519. Breaking that, since it coincides with $1,520 support, would occasion much pain and soul-searching.

Today the SILVER PRICE fell through the trap door of 3650c and slipped to 3605c before it stopped, grabbed traction, and reversed. Comex finished down 42.1c at 3661.9c, above 3600c. However, Monday through today silver has outlined a head and shoulders that measures a target of about 3500c. Downslanting neckline will be crossed tomorrow below 3600c, most likely.

But I could be wrong. The neckline might be straight across at 3650c.
Lift your eyes up off the ground and look at the horizon. Silver and gold prices remain in a long term upward primary trend (bull market) with another 3 - 10 years to run. Presently they are correcting from a 2-1/2 year run-up that peaked at end-April, falling into a seasonal low period. All this business will be finished by end-July (if that late), so you'd better get your buying done by then.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.