Friday, February 03, 2012

The Gold Price Broke Today After Rising all Week, Will it Wake Up on Monday?

Gold Price Close Today : 1,737.90
Gold Price Close 27-Jan : 1,732.20
Change : 5.70 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 3372.50
Silver Price Close 27-Jan : 3374.70
Change : -2.20 cents or -0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.532
Gold Silver Ratio 27-Jan : 51.329
Change : 0.20 or 0.4%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01941
Silver Gold Ratio 27-Jan : 0.01948
Change : -0.00008 or -0.4%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 152.99
Dow in Gold Dollars 27-Jan : $ 151.32
Change : $ 1.67 or 1.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.401
Dow in Gold Ounces 27-Jan : 7.320
Change : 0.08 or 1.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 381.39
Dow in Silver Ounces 27-Jan : 375.74
Change : 5.64 or 1.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,862.23
Dow Industrial 27-Jan : 12,680.14
Change : 182.09 or 1.4%

S&P 500 : 1,344.90
S&P 500 27-Jan : 1,318.01
Change : 26.89 or 2.0%

US Dollar Index : 78.959
US Dollar Index 27-Jan : 78.883
Change : 0.076 or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,621.50
Platinum Price Close 27-Jan : 1,621.80
Change : -0.30 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 705.90
Palladium Price Close 27-Jan : 688.50
Change : 17.40 or 2.5%

Appears that the SILVER and GOLD PRICE broke today, or at the very least, must back off for a running start at $1,750 and 3400c. The GOLD PRICE lost $18.90 to close Comex at $1,737.90, and in the aftermarket lost another $10 to $1,726.10. Silver lost 42.6c, closing at 3372.5c, but dropped nearly another 25c in the aftermarket, falling to 3349c.

"Twas a big tumble for both. Let's look closer.

GOLD PRICE wiped out all its gains since Monday down at $1,725 support/resistance. After rising all week, that's not terribly surprising, but come Monday gold had better wake up and dig its claws into the bark, or it might fall out of the tree. Support stretches out its limbs at $1,725 and $1,705. Breaking those takes gold down to $1,680.

Up above, the GOLD PRICE high close has been $1,756.80 (yesterday), but it hasn't been able to breach $1,760. Therefore, watch that level on the upside.

Today's break probably wasn't enough to correct the move up from $1,523.90, but a drop to $1705 might be. More likely target is $1,675. That would also mark a kiss-back to the downtrend line.

SILVER PRICE looks like gold, but the range is 3440c and 3290c. Always bear in mind that silver is much more volatile than gold, both upside and downside.

First, if silver's rally has not been stymied at the 300 day moving average (3448c) for a goodly correction, then it can't fall below 3300c.

Next, a routine and shallow correction would sweep silver to 3250c - 3200c. If things get pricklier, then 3100c. Lowest target expected would be 2950c. Of course, we have to patiently wait to see how the correction unfolds.

Meanwhile, another buying opportunity is coming y'all's way. Stop your ears now against all the Wall Street Sirens who will be shrieking the silver and gold bull market has died. By now you understand that those folks don't know no more than somebody who works as a spokesman for a government numbers office.

One glance at the chart tells you that silver and gold and platinum and palladium all trod water this week. On the other hand, stocks rose this week, mostly today. US dollar index flatlined, and today silver and gold broke.

Lo and Behold! The Dow exceeded 12,850 today, and fact of the business is, nearly reached the May intraday high (12,876). Dow today gained a respectable 156.82 points (1.23%) to close at 12,862.23, nearly on the 12,869.95 high. S&P500 was even happier, rising 19.36 points (1.46%) to 1,344.90. What has everybody clambering all over each other to buy stocks?

Well, if you can believe it, government numbers. Personally, I don't put nearly as much stock in government numbers as I do in astrology, and I couldn't even tell you what my birth sign is -- the Possum, or the Turkey Buzzard, maybe.

Yet in this age of Reason, High Technology, and Right Big Government Lies, people still suck up those government numbers like they were single malt scotch at a free bar.

All this big news was that the government's unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, nearly the low for the last three years. (On another note, if you believe unemployment is 8.3%, call me about some wooden Krugerrands I can sell you really cheap.)

Truth is, market was looking for some excuse to rise, that was the news today, so it took the bait.

Oh, and by the way, did I tell y'all that a Greek Debt Deal Is Near?

Y'all might wonder why I am so negative on stocks. Because they are in a primary down trend (bear market), and if I don't do much more than keep you out of stocks, five years from now you'll still think I was the brightest bulb in the box. Hide and watch.,

That US Dollar Index this week played Bait and Switch. Looked like it would break through 79.50 and fall off the face of the earth, but it stopped and rallied and even ended the week 7.6 basis points higher than last Friday.

Today the dollar index lost a tee-tiny 3.2 basis points (0.04%), leaving me wondering why the currency market has gone so quiet all of a sudden. It ended at 78.959, but climbed as high as 79.357. This currency thing isn't clear. Dollar may rally still and euro may sink to its intrinsic value -- zero -- before the dollar does.

The 1.3200 level seems to have blocked the euro this week. Closed 1.3155 today, up 0.06%. Also bumping up against its critical 62 day moving average, and can't punch through. Brace yourself for another stumble for the euro.,

Reason hath fled the yen market. Closed today down 0.50% at 130.56c/Y100 (76.59/US$1), giving back a third of its spectacular gains since 24 January. It gaps down, then bounces right back, gaps up, then waterfalls down. Why does that picture make me thing of Nice Government Men in their cubicles phoning their partners in manipulation on the market floor?

Well, I know election year has come because so many pious confessions are spontaneously erupting from politicians' lips. Yesterday it was Bernard O'Bama shaking out his Christianity before the National Prayer Breakfast, and even Newt Gingrich is claiming to have got religion. You may think I am harsh to say these things, but I say it's as sorry as gully dirt for politicians to trade on their faith. I never have thought much of them "talkin'" Christians, only the "walkin'" ones. They never need to tell you what they believe, because you already know from watching 'em.

All the This Day In History websites say that the 16th (income tax) amendment was ratified 3 February 1913, but that's a lie. Secretary of State Philander Knox fraudulently and knowingly certified it when it had never passed. The irregularities in the supposed state ratifications are too numerous to list, but you can read all about it in "The Law That Never Was" by Bill Benson and Red Beckman. Of course, if you don't pay the income tax, the government will try to jail or kill you.

Speaking of the IRS, tax time is fast approaching. My friend, Dan Pilla, Jr., at has over 25 years experience fighting with the IRS for taxpayers' rights. If you have bad tax problems, Dan's the man to call. One of the 11 books he has written is "How to Get Tax Amnesty." Check him out. I receive no remuneration whatever for recommending Dan.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.