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Friday, July 20, 2012

The Gold Price Seasonal Weakness and Correction Rapidly Coming to an End Stay Calm and Buy on Retreats

Gold Price Close Today : 1,582.50
Gold Price Close 13-Jul : 1,591.60
Change : -9.10 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 2727.9
Silver Price Close 13-Jul : 2734.4
Change : -6.50 or -0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.012
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Jul : 58.207
Change : -0.19 or -0.3%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01724
Silver Gold Ratio 13-Jul : 0.01718
Change : 0.00006 or 0.3%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 167.50
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Jul : $ 165.95
Change : $ 1.55 or 0.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.103
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Jul : 8.028
Change : 0.07 or 0.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 470.05
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Jul : 467.27
Change : 2.78 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,822.57
Dow Industrial 13-Jul : 12,777.09
Change : 45.48 or 0.4%

S&P 500 : 1,362.66
S&P 500 13-Jul : 1,356.28
Change : 6.38 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index : 83.462
US Dollar Index 13-Jul : 83.384
Change : 0.078 or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,412.10
Platinum Price Close 13-Jul : 1,432.50
Change : -20.40 or -1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 574.85
Palladium Price Close 13-Jul : 584.50
Change : -9.65 or -1.7%

The GOLD PRICE mounted by $2.40 today to rest at $1,582.50. Silver waxed 8.5 cents to 2727.9 when the closing bell rang at Comex.

GOLD PRICE was beaten up but not dismayed this week. On the 5 day chart it scratched out a kind of rounding bottom, with a low at $1,568. Clearly at $1,575 lurk plenteous buyers. But that only offers us a floor. Up above, gold must break out of this jail by closing above $1,600.

GOLD tradeth still within an ambiguous even-sided triangle. Next week the bottom of that triangle stands about $1,560 and rising, the top boundary at $1,610 and falling. Today's close left gold below its 20 day moving average ($1,583.10) and its 50 DMA ($1,586.94), but barely. It's trading sideways into a tighter and tighter range, but we'll see some fun if it breaks $1,600 or $1,560.

This is not failure, only gold working out the last of its correction from last August's $1,927 high. Be patient, and buy gold whenever it has a bad day and falls. Autumn will reveal that all this sidewise trading amounted to no more than base building for a rally.

In the last fortnight's trading the SILVER PRICE has built a flat topped rising triangle within a falling wedge. These patterns usually break out upside.

Until SILVER punches through 2760c, nothing much will happen. Down below it needs to hold 2610c. As with gold, buy on any retreats.

Premiums on silver and gold physicals still indicate strong physical demand.

If you haven't yet traded gold for silver, now's about your time. Ratio stands at 58.012 today, and surely won't linger there for long.

I sing the same song as last week: summer seasonal weakness for silver and gold and a correction rapidly coming to its end. Be calm, keep your eyes on the horizon, not the bumpy ground in front of you, and don't listen to anybody who works on Wall Street or in Washington or the mainstream media..

If markets get any flatter, we'll need to hold a mirror under their nose to see if they're still breathing.

This week silver gave up a empty 6.5 cents, dollar a piddlin' $9.10, Dow escalated a nugatory 0.4%, S&P500 a hollow 0.5%, while the almighty US dollar (index) levitated a feckless 0.1%.

Look at that US Dollar index 5 day chart. (You can view it yourself at www.ino.com, using symbol "NYBOT:DX".) These tea leaves present two warring interpretations. First, the dollar made a correction this week with a rounding bottom and next week will burst through 83.60 to greater highs. On the other hand, the dollar may have broken and today jumped up for a final kiss good bye before falling through 82.75 next week headed for the earth's core.

My outlook for the dollar is strongly colored by central bankers' needs. Those needy fellers right now need stability more than anything else, and neither the European criminals (ECB) nor the US racketeers (Fed) want the dollar to run moonward while the euro plumbs the Marianas trench. They want to keep the whole system together, not preside over its demise. Therefore expect the dollar to remain BELOW the last 83.83 high, but above the 81.52 last low.

But the stability plan isn't panning out. Surprise. Euro gapped down and made another new low for the move today -- $1.2144, lowest since May, 2010. None of that is liable to make Mario Draghi or Angela Ferkel or Bloviating Ben sleep well tonight. Closed down 0.94% at $1.2164. As grounds for this tumble media tout a request from the heavily indebted Valencia region asking Madrid for financial aid. That hints that Spain itself needs rescuing. That sucked all optimism out of stocks and the euro and sent it hurtling into the black hole of outer space.

Note, dear readers, how the Central Bank criminals have been applying the "slow burn" technique to European problems. In their book, if it doesn’t flare up into a full-blown panic with lines outside the banks and blood running by gallons in the street, they are still winning. If they get to 5:00 p.m. and the financial system hasn't exploded, they win. Today. I could almost guarantee that they already have a target for the new $/Euro exchange rate, somewhere around $1.1800 - $1.2000, and when it reaches that level they'll all start intervening to set a new rate. In other words, they are devaluing the euro like a kid slowly hissing the air out of a balloon.

I'm telling y'all, as I have told y'all, this is past saving, past reforming, and you are smoking meth if you believe the measures tried so far will resuscitate severely debt-poisoned and debt-addicted economies.

Ain't no central bankers going to let that yen run away, either. Today it gained 0.11% to end at 127.36c (Y78.47), but that just edged it sidewise and didn't rise through the downtrend line. Remains, however, above the 200 DMA (126.68), a sure botheration for the Japanese Nice Government Men.

Stocks this week hit their top Bollinger Band (a measure of current range) and, unable to penetrate, bounced down, losing most of the weeks' gains today.

S&P 500 dipped 1.01% today (13.85) to close 1,362.66. Dow slipped 0.93% (120.79) and ended 12,822.57.

A bear market likes to lure investors into its den where it can maul them and gnaw their bones at leisure. 'Twouldn't surprise me to see the Dow reach 13,000 to universal jubilation before it plunges again. Y'all just remember that when the jubilation breaks out, so you don't get mangled in the bear's cave.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.