Monday, March 24, 2014

The Gold Price Closed at $1,311.20, Get Ready for Exceptionally Favorable Buying Opportunities

Gold Price Close Today : 1311.20
Change : -24.80 or -1.86%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.043
Change : -0.243 or -1.20%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.419
Change : -0.439 or -0.67%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01529
Change : 0.000102 or 0.67%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1430.70
Change : 4.80 or 0.34%

Palladium Price Close Today : 795.35
Change : 6.60 or 0.84%

S&P 500 : 1,857.64
Change : -9.08 or -0.49%

Dow In GOLD$ : $256.61
Change : $ 4.36 or 1.73%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.414
Change : 0.211 or 1.73%

Dow in SILVER oz : 812.09
Change : 8.44 or 1.05%

Dow Industrial : 16,276.69
Change : -26.08 or -0.16%

US Dollar Index : 80.060
Change : -0.190 or -0.24%

The GOLD PRICE caught an updraught on Friday but hit the skids today, losing $24.80 to close Comex at $1,311.20.

Until about 9:30 EST the gold price was fine if lower, trading about $1,325. Then it dropped to $1,315, traded sideways, and fell as low as $1,308.50. Tomorrow and the next day might see the GOLD PRICE climb, but the ultimate target here is [likely] either the meeting of lateral support and the 50 and 200 DMAs around $1,300, or the 50% correction of the December - March rally at $1,287, coinciding with the neckline of gold's upside down head and shoulders traced out November - January.

Lo, this is not grist for y'all's panic mill. It's a correction. Normal, after a long rally. Take a deep breath.

The SILVER PRICE today lost 24.3 cents and closed Comex at 2004.3c. Like gold, silver was rocking along smoothly between 2010c and 2025c until about 9:30 when the selling struck, taking it down to 2003c. Silver fought back with a rally to 2020c, but the rest of the day wore it down. In the aftermarket it fell even lower than the Comex 1997c low.

In silver look for an ultimate (by month's end) target from 1975c to 1945c. More likely is something around 1950c - 1960c, where the downtrend line from April 2013 now intersects. Recall that silver burst through that line on 14 February, so it would be typical for it to kiss back to that breakaway line before it resumes rallying. Another nested target is the 75% correction of the Dec - February rally at 1958.5c. It has already fulfilled a 61.8% correction at 2004c.

Silver and gold prices will probably spend most of the rest of March correcting. Soon will come an exceptionally favorable buying opportunity. Watch. Get ready.

Markets are teetering back and forth and not even blizzard of new bucks from the Fed can give them rest and direction.

Sorta spooky in stocks. On Friday the S&P500 made a double top intraday at 1,883.97 with the 1,883.57 March high. That also flashed the first half of a key reversal (new intraday high for the move with a lower close for the day) and confirmed that as a key reversal today with a lower close. That 1,857.64 close, down 9.08 or 0.49% also fell below the old uptrend line I've been writing about.

That ain't all. Since that earlier March top the S&P500 has formed an even-sided triangle -- Friday's high punched above it but Friday's close fell back within it). Today it closed near the bottom boundary of that even-sided triangle.

I remind y'all that even-sided triangle formations do not hint which way they will break out, only that they will soon. With that spooky double top and an MACD pointing downward, odds lean to a downward breakout. However, volume fell so maybe 'twill teeter back the other way. See Chart:

Dow closed at 16,276.69, lower by 26.08 (0.16%). It has also painted both halves of a key reversal Friday and today, and closed below its 20 day moving average (as did the S&P500).

I am biased to expect another peak between now and June, but I can't argue with a chart. This one looks heavy, like a cast-iron kite.

Zut alors! The Dow in Metals jumped up today, but struck some provocative points. Dow in gold rose 1.61% to 12.41 oz (G$256.54 gold dollars) and stopped on the 50 DMA (12.41 oz). Could market the upward correction's limit, but no other indicators argue for that outcome except the full stochastics.

As we always expect from more volatile silver, the Dow in Silver has moved further, up today by 0.95% to 811.12 oz (S$1,048.72 silver dollars). That's well above its 50 DMA (784.40 oz) and at an old internal resistance line whose lineage would be too complicated to explain. Momentum is up for the nonce, but those who swapped stocks for silver back in June 2001 when the Dow cost 2,562 oz are not much bothered.

US dollar index has once again proven true to character and stabbed its friends in the back. Last week it broke bravely upside out of a bullish falling wedge, slammed into its 50 DMA at 80.50, then fell back as fast as it paper legs cloud carry it. Closed today at 80.06, 19 basis points (0.24%) cheaper than Friday. Technically still in an uptrend, but to me remains esthetically and instinctually a piece by Bela Bartok or Marc Chagall. (Call me a Philistine, I don't care. Y'all expect a nacheral born fool from Tennessee would like music that don't muse and pichers that don't picher nothin'? Not likely.)

Euro meanwhile appeared to recover from its breakdown last week. It climbed 0.34% to $1.3840. Say what you will, it is a chart I would never buy.

Yen moved a giant 0.1% up to 97.82 cents/Y100. Range-bound, and sayeth naught until it closeth over 99.24 or beneath 96.38.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.