|Gold Price, $/oz||1,150.70||-9.40||-0.81%|
|Silver Price, $/oz||15.35||-0.27||-1.72%|
|Dow in GOLD $s||316.81||2.08||0.66%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||15.33||0.10||0.66%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||1,149.26||17.96||1.59%|
|US Dollar Index||99.75||1.15||1.17%|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
I won't repeat all I've said about Bollinger bands, but the SILVER PRICE closed below its 2 standard deviation BB today, not below 3 sigma. Clearly wants to break down & unless it turns up immediately, it will. Oddly enough, the 3-sigma BB today is at $15.04, the November low.
Gold's 3 sigma BB stands at $1,139. today, against a low of $1,146.50. Gold is heavily oversold (RSI at 25 today where 30 is oversold), but there is precious little other evidence it might turn around. We just have to watch and wait. Closing in on a bottom..
Rather than answer this question many times, why don't I economically tell everybody now why I believe the dollar is rising, some fact, some opinion.
Main determinant of currency exchange rates is relative interest rates. Other things being equal (OTBE), the currency paying the highest interest rate will have the highest exchange rate -- just a matter of equalizing prices.
But other things never are equal (OTNAE), because central banks depreciate ("inflate") their currencies at different speeds. Generally, the market discounts currencies they expect to depreciate.
Right now European & Japanese short term rates are actually negative. This is so stupid, so outlandish, that it could only arise from central banking. If a bond pays negative 4%, you give some government $1000 today & a year from now they give you $960. Right, they actually CHARGE you for holding your money.
Low as the Fed has screwed them down, US interest rates are still higher than negative, and higher also than long term rates in Europe or Japan. Therefore, folks dump euros & yen and buying dollars, i.e., dollar bonds.
More than that, the guaranteed low interest and erstwhile steady exchange rates for years gave speculators a green light on the carry trade: sell euros or yen for dollars to invest in the Wall Street Casino. Only problem there is you have "borrowed" dollars and must pay them back. When the dollar begins rising, your short dollar position goes against you fast, and hell hath no torment like a short squeezed in a rising market.
Now the loudly & publicly proclaimed intent of the Euros & Japanese to depreciate their currencies AND relatively higher US interest rates are driving the dollar higher, not to mention whatever crowd of losing dollar carry trade shorts remain.
One last thing: demand for dollars is rising because corporations want to finance in euros or yen to take advantage of lower rates there. But to do that without currency exchange rate risk, they have to find dollar swaps from somewhere to hedge that risk. More upward pressure on the dollar's price.
And who knows what other Central-Bank-spawned cancers are eating at the economy's vitals and working out as symptoms in the currency market.
Whoops! And the Mexican peso is falling out of bed. Dollar has risen from 13.65 pesos when November began to about 15.65 today, a 12.8% loss. And Mexican authorities are making noises about selling US$52 million a day to "stabilize" the peso. No surer sign of a crisis than that.
Fellow Mushrooms, as part of its propaganda campaign today the blackhearted Federal Reserve criminals announced they had administered a "stress test" to all ("31") of the large US banks (fellow criminals) and all passed. "I dunno about you, Margaret, but that cinches it fer me -- if them starchy examiners at the Fed say the big banks is good, I reckon they is good." Look at the propaganda: "stress test," to resonate with the test the doctor gives you to check your heart. Clean bill of health!
There's a word for this cheap propaganda, but it's too scatological for me to use and remain a gentleman.
Stocks inched lower today, pausing in their earthward trajectory. Looking at today's chart, www.nasdaq.com, you might spy the fingerprints of the Nice Government Men preventing the plunge.
Dow fell only 27.55 (0.16%0 to 17,635.39. S&P lost 3.92 (0.19%) to 2,040.24. No panic yet, no blood on the floor, but the rally is broken. Panic erupts when the Dow closes below 17,037.76, the 1 February low.
Soaring dollar & plummeting stocks make me feel like a goldfish at an otter convention. Makes me think of September 2008.
Drops in silver & gold today sent the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver back up to touch the top gator jaw again. Need confirmation before we can call an end to their upward travel.
Euro might as well go home. Lost another 1.26% to close at $1.0546, closing in on parity with the dollar. Ne'er a sign of turning up.
Yen lost 0.26% to end at 82.35. It has broken down out of its sidewise range, but the bottom line of that range might as well be 82.20.
WTIC remains in its range although it fell 1.21% to $48.17/barrel.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.