|Gold Price, $/oz.||1,201.50||1,171.50||-30.00||-2.5|
|Silver Price, $/oz.||16.148||15.808||0.34||-2.1|
|Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)||311.68||315.69||4.00||1.3|
|Dow in gold ounces||15.08||15.27||0.19||1.3|
|Dow in Silver ounces||1,121.86||1,131.73||9.87||0.9|
|US dollar index||94.24||95.39||1.15||1.2|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
Yes, it was a rotten week for the GOLD PRICE. It lost 2.5% or $30. Silver lost 34 cents or 2.1%. But most of that loss fell on Monday for the price of gold, and Tuesday for the silver price.
If the gold price closes below its last low, $1,162.10, then it will drop to someplace between there and $1,141.60. A lot of folks are expecting a big drop, say to $1,100 or lower. I don't see it. One reason is the buying support I suspect lurks just under this market. This week we have seen serious buyers come back with large orders. I don't solicit business, so this is spontaneous. So maybe the gold price sees a fast spike down, but not too long and not too far. Up above gold does nothing -- it's all meaningless noise -- until it climbs above $1,205.
What will a resolution in Greece do to the price of gold? If Greece doesn't leave the euro, nothing much. Oh, gold might drop a little on the news, but all that safe-haven demand has been beaten out of gold, no doubt by the Nice Government Men, scared to death the Greek crisis might precipitate a enlightenment of the Mushrooms and a stampede into gold. If Greek did leave the euro, the gold price would get a boost. How long that lasts depends on the knock on effects of the Grexit.
The SILVER PRICE keeps holding on above $15.50, where there's lateral support. Break that and silver might crumple to $14.50 in a sudden spike, as suddenly over. Overhead silver must climb over $16.40 to make any difference.
June and July are the time of the year for seasonal lows in silver and gold prices. I suspect those lows will be made by 15 July.
I'm closing the week early because I'm driving down to Alabama tomorrow with my son to look at Southpoll cows. God willing, I'll be back on Monday.
Dead and directionless markets. Silver and gold price rallies failed this week and metals tumbled. Stock market volatility continues, as stocks can't hold on to gains and rallies quickly become routs. End is near. US dollar index is undecided. Greek cloud still hangs over the market, blocking big moves.
Stocks had a plumb rotten day. Dow lost 75.71 (0.42%) and closed below its 20 DMA. Point to watch is 17,700, which roughly coincides with the 200 DMA at 17,670.34. Stocks right now are pointed down, but could still rally as high as 18,400. This shouldn't last much longer. A close below the 200 DMA could be the trigger an avalanche.
Dow gave up 6.27 (0.3%) to 2,102.31. It too, closed below the 20 DMA tripwire. A close below 2,075 will bring trouble. Rally as high as 2140 is possible, but next move will be down. Earlier in the week the Dow in gold peeked through the top gator jaw of that broadening top, but today closed again beneath it at 15.26 oz, down 0.27%.
Dow in silver never reached that top jaw before it turned down. Ended down 0.14% today at 1,131.94. This latest attempt by stocks to push up out of the gator jaws has failed, more evidence stocks are rolling over against metals.
I am inclined to expect that the Greeks will not exit the euro. Not that Greece itself is that big and important, but its exit is just the point of a needle that the European balloon can't stand. If Greece left, others might get ideas.
US dollar tried to rally but now has stalled at the 50 DMA. Again, market is waiting for Greece cloud to lift so they know which way to lean. Euro lost 0.01% to $1.1204. Yen gained 0.2% to 80.88. Meaningless for both.
The bond bubble may have begun to burst. The 10 year treasury yield is bumping against the downtrend from 2007 and has staged a SERIOUS rally since 1 February, from 1.651% to 2.393%. 30 year bond yield has risen from 2.226% to 3.156% and is way above the 200 DMA (2.836%). When those yields start rising in earnest, the Fed is going to have a basement flooded with sewage, and find out just how clever they are at pumping.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.