Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Price of Gold Broke Support Around $1,125 and Tumbled $11.60 Closing at $1,115.50

31-Aug-1530-Sep-15Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,131.601,115.50-16.10-1.4
Silver Price, $/oz.14.57714.5130.064-0.4
Gold/Silver Ratio77.62976.862-0.767-1.0
Silver/gold ratio0.01290.01300.00011.0
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)301.93301.78-0.15-0.1
Dow in gold ounces14.6114.60-0.01-0.1
Dow in Silver ounces1,133.841,122.08-11.77-1.0
Dow Industrials16,528.0316,284.70-243.33-1.5
S&P5001,972.181,920.03-52.15-2.6
US dollar index95.8096.480.680.7
Platinum Price1,010.10907.20-102.90-10.2
Palladium Price601.55651.0049.458.2

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The PRICE OF GOLD broke support around $1,125 and tumbled $11.60 (1.03%) to $1,115.50. Silver dropped only 5.6 cents (0.4%) to 1451.3 cents.

Gold Price
Silver Price
The PRICE OF GOLD traded in a tiny tight range just under $1,125, until 10:00 when it broke $1,120 and slid to a low at $1,110. Rest of the day slept. On the longer term chart, this brings gold to rest near the lower triangle boundary.

SILVER PRICE chart today is quite strange. It range-traded from $14.70 to $14.60 until a little before 10:00 a.m., when it dropped down to $14.50. But about 11:30 it went crazy and jumped straight up to $14.75, and just as quickly fell again below $14.60. Rest of the day flatlined, except for one more attempt to break down at 14.50, which silver fought off. On the longer term chart silver lodged right on the lower boundary of that even-sided triangle. Must hold there.

Nothing for it but to wait patiently. Large plunge still stands across stocks' future.

PAINTING THE TAPE: I saw the headline and immediately understood why stocks had to rise today: "Wall Street ends worst quarter in four years with a rally." The Nice Government Men have been of course, unable to stem the tidal wave smashing stocks, but they could paint the tape just a little to make it seem better somehow -- and to suck in more of the Main Street rubes in to their financial destruction.

It's okay. Those cheap tricks work at the margin, for a day, then they fade. King Canute never could command the sea to turn back. Neither can the NGM.

I thought it might instruct us to see how everything did over the last month. Silver barely moved, gold lost 1.45, but the Dow lost 243.33 or 1.5% while the S&P500 lost 52.15 or 2.6%. US dollar index gained 68 basis points or 0.7%. Platinum took a beating, down 10.2%, but palladium jumped up 8.2%.

Stocks today, as noted, rallied. Dow rose 235.37 or 1.47% to 16,284.70. S&P500 rose 35.94 (1.91%) to 1,920.03. On a chart this less than impressive performance doesn't even reach the 20 DMA, but for both it is a confirmed key reversal, so we will probably see higher stock prices tomorrow. I reckon the Big Fellers still had some stock they wanted to fob off on the turnipseeds.

US dollar index rose 49 basis points (0.51%) to 96.48. It is jumping back and forth over its 50 day moving average (96.32), but today was merely a lower high in a series of lower highs, i.e., more downtrend. Still following stocks day by day.

I am interested to note that WTIC (Light Crude Oil) has risen the past two days. It's in a long pennant which cold be a consolidation, but could also be a continuation. Copper Jumped 3.7% today and looks like it's made a double bottom. Wonder why these inflation markets would be trying to turn up?

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Gold Price Sank $4.90 or 0.4 Percent Closing at $1,127.10

29-Sep-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,127.10-4.90-0.43%
Silver Price, $/oz14.570.030.21%
Gold/Silver Ratio77.363-0.502-0.64%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01290.00010.65%
Platinum Price917.10-9.00-0.97%
Palladium Price657.406.150.94%
S&P 5001,884.092.320.12%
Dow16,049.1347.240.30%
Dow in GOLD $s294.352.140.73%
Dow in GOLD oz14.240.100.73%
Dow in SILVER oz1,101.590.900.08%
US Dollar Index96.04-0.14-0.15%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
SILVER and GOLD PRICES are confused. The gold price sank $4.90 (0.4%) to $1,127.10 while silver rose 3.1 cents (0.2%) to $14.569. Confusion's never positive.

Gold/Silver Ratio
Pondering the SILVER PRICE daily chart, I see that both Monday and today silver made lows at $14.50 -- a double bottom? It did move up sluggishly off the low. Silver today touched the bottom boundary of that even-sided triangle, but did absolutely nothing to distinguish itself. MACD indicator is close to turning down. RSI stands below 50 at 45.84.

Meanwhile the GOLD/SILVER RATIO gapped up yesterday, which bodes nothing much good for silver and gold prices rallying. Wouldn't want that to move higher. Chart on the right.

The PRICE OF GOLD sank to pierce its 20 Day Moving Average, but then closed above it. Neither silver nor gold prices are telling us a lot, but that may be telling us a lot, too. They're lethargic, weak, and slow with very small daily ranges. No trading. Not good.

I suspect most folks are waiting for the other shoe to drop with stocks, and so are afraid to jump one way or the other. I fear they will be longing for the tedium one day soon.

Sturgeon's Revelation says that 90% of everything is crap. I'm not sure 90% of the news is crap, but most of it is not worth bothering with, and some great percentage of the media and internet people who massage the news don't repay listening to, but now and then something important turns up. Here are a couple of those pieces.

Zero Hedge published an article yesterday, "UBS Is About To Blow The Cover On A Massive Gold-Rigging Scandal." Read it here, http://bit.ly/1KQ4HR3

Y'all have watched as giant banks have paid multi-zillion dollar settlements for rigging every kind of market, from interest rates to kumquats. Now -- surprise, surprise, after Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) has been exposing it for more than 15 years -- German and Swiss regulators are closing in on gold market manipulation.

What do all these settlements have in common? The same mega-banks are the perpetrators, they pay piddlin' fines compared to the prodigious pockets they've picked, and no perp ever goes to prison. Whoops, they also show that most markets in the world today are manipulated, either by the market makers or by governments.

Wait, wait, I've got to grab my wastebasket and puke. All this pus oozes out of the same people who plump for "free markets" and pose as Captains of Capitalism when they're simply Captains of Cronyism who know their government buddies will never indict them. There's a proverb in Ecclesiastes, "Because sentence against an evil work is not executed speedily, therefore the heart of the sons of men is fully set in them to do evil." Slow or speedy, a surprise awaits them.

Glencore Chart
Another article appeared on Zero Hedge yesterday, "Glencore Implodes," at http://bit.ly/1h8DyRx Glencore is an Anglo-Swiss corporation, tenth largest in the world, that trades and supplies commodities: 60% of the zinc market, 50% of copper, 9% of grains, and 3% of the oil market. It grew out of Marc Rich and Company in the 1990s -- y'all remember, the same Marc Rich indicted for tax evasion and illegal oil deals with Iran during the Iran Hostage Crisis. Yep, the same one Prexy Bill Clinton, moved only by his native compassion I'm sure, pardoned just as he was leaving office. Right, he pardoned Rich even before he stood trial. Neat deal, huh?

Rich's key to success was leverage, financing his purchases with bank credit. It appears his successors followed in his footsteps, raking in larger and larger market share, and piling debt higher and higher. The stock has collapsed from $227 in July to 77 today.

I mention Glencore because this is the kind of bankruptcy that can suck down the whole world into the maelstrom of "systemic collapse." Not saying it will, only that the scale, like Lehman Brothers, is sufficient.

With those cheery thoughts behind us, let's look at today's markets.

Stocks today went through six -- count 'em, six -- reversals. And after all that sound and fury, it signified only a Dow 47.24 (0.3%) higher at 16,049.13. S&P500 wasn't that peppy, either, up 2.32 (0.12%) to 1,884.09. Stocks are on the edge of a wet and slippery cliff, and they ain't Indiana Jones and have no whip handy. More blood and tears will flow, much more.

So stocks are falling, and the dollar is falling, too. Lost 0.14 (0.15%) today to end at 96.04. I see by the yield on 10 year Treasury notes (down yesterday and again today), that bond prices are rising, which makes sense for money fleeing stocks. But what does puzzle me is the dollar continuing to erode. Money running into dollars usually means "running into treasury securities," but the dollar is limp as freshly boiled vermicelli. Euro rose a nothing 0.04% to $1.1252 and the yen rose 0.11% to 83.51, but neither one of those charts shows money pouring into them. Finally, gold isn't rising, either, so where is that fleeing money going? Or maybe the panic hasn't quite begun yet.

On 29 September 2008 following bankruptcies of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual, the Dow fell 777.68 point, largest single day point loss in history. Y'all remember that number.

On 29 September 1979 gold hit a record $400.20 an ounce in Hong Kong.

On 29 September 1916 John D. Rockefeller became the first billionaire. The second billion came a lot easier.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Monday, September 28, 2015

Price of Gold Fell $14.00 or 1.22 Percent Ending the Day at $1,132.00

28-Sep-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,132.00-14.00-1.22%
Silver Price, $/oz14.54-0.57-3.76%
Gold/Silver Ratio77.8652.0012.64%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0128-0.0003-2.57%
Platinum Price926.10-25.10-2.64%
Palladium Price651.25-16.30-2.44%
S&P 5001,881.77-49.57-2.57%
Dow16,001.89-312.78-1.92%
Dow in GOLD $s292.22-2.07-0.70%
Dow in GOLD oz14.14-0.10-0.70%
Dow in SILVER oz1,100.6920.681.91%
US Dollar Index96.20-0.23-0.24%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
SILVER and GOLD PRICE were walking down the street doing fine, arm in arm, about 3:00 a.m. New York time when somebody dropped a piano on their heads. Between then and 10:00, the gold price fell as low at 1,127.30 and silver to $14.60. Silver later reached $14.47.

Gold Price
On Comex the PRICE OF GOLD dropped $14 or 1.2% and closed $1,132.00. Silver lost a mouth-lolling 56.8 cents (3.8%) to $14.538. What happened? (I will forbear spinning an answer out of "conspiracy to suppress," but that notion sure does pop quickly to mind.)

The dollar index was actually falling at 3:00 a.m., but after 6:00 began rising to its high for the day about 9:00 a.m. After that it fell as straight as silver and gold prices, dropping to an 11:30 low at 95.90. Oddly enough, that big dollar drop doesn't really damage the chart. It stopped above the 20 DMA, and it was, after all, at the downtrend line from the January high. Uptrend, however remains intact.

Silver Price
The SILVER PRICE doesn't look as nice. Today's big fall sliced through the 50 and 20 DMAs ($14.91 and $14.75), but stopped within the $14.25 - $14.95 range that has trapped silver since July. Believe it or not, silver has put in a series of higher highs and higher lows since the August low, and that still defines an uptrend. Today silver hit that uptrend line. Trouble for silver comes with a break below $14.25. Otherwise, it's okay.

Now step back from those charts and look. Both metals are coiling up in even-sided triangles, coiling for a breakout. Trouble is, and even-sided triangle doesn't tell us which way they will break out, only that they will.

You have to wonder what sort of lunacy the Federal Reserve is pursuing. They're firing the blarney cannon till it's glowing red hot. Yellen spoke last Thursday dribbling about raising interest rates later in the year, trying to re-capture the Fed's lost credibility, I reckon. Today New York Fed Chairman Wm Dudley spoke in the morning, Chicago Chairman Charles Evans this afternoon, and this evening John Williams of the San Francisco Fed will speak. Nine more are scheduled for this week, including Yellen again. It's a blarney blitzkrieg.

I'm having trouble graspin' what they are doing. At first I thought they might be trying to talk the dollar up, but if so it didn't work today. Are they determined to tank stocks? Two out of three who spoke today leaned toward raising rates. Are they trying to talk the rate rise graveyard dead, so everybody will get so plumb dog-tired of hearing them natter and drool about it they'll accept anything, just don't torture us anymore driveling about interest rates!

Well, I'm just a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, and can't imagine what them biggety central bankers might be thinking. But you know, you can sometimes overthink your enemy. I mean, you can puzzle and puzzle about what your enemy is plotting, and in the end he ain't plotting a durned thing: he's jes' stupid as a ball-peen hammer. Course, it's always unwise and perilous to assume your enemy's stupid until you have eliminated all other possibilities. In the Fed's case, that might be easy, though.

Dow Jones
Today's markets:

S&P500
US dollar index, as I suspected, fell back through its 50 day moving average. Lost 23 basis points (0.24%) today to 96.20. This beating doesn't satisfy me atall. I want to see it below 96 and the 20 DMA (now 95.81) again. Then if it sinks like a double-bitted axe in a cow pond, I won't care a bit. Dollar index is presently pointed up, but tenuously and indifferently.

Mercy, ain't y'all glad you didn't own stocks today! Dow fell 312.78 (1.92%) to 16,001.89, and it 'bout ruptured disks in the Nice Government Men's backs to get it to close that 1.89 above 16,000. What WILL they do tomorrow?

S&P500 fared worse than the Dow, vomiting up 49.57 (2.57%) to 1,881.77. It looks far sicker than the Dow. Below 1,867 panic take over.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Time To Buy Silver and Gold, The Long Winter of Correction Has Passed

18-Sep-1525-Sep-15Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,138.101,146.007.900.7
Silver Price, $/oz.15.15415.1060.048-0.3
Gold/Silver Ratio75.10275.8640.7621.0
Silver/gold ratio0.01330.0132-0.0001-1.0
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)297.60294.29-3.31-1.1
Dow in gold ounces14.4014.24-0.16-1.1
Dow in Silver ounces1,081.201,080.01-1.19-0.1
Dow Industrials16,384.5816,314.67-69.91-0.4
S&P5001,958.031,931.34-26.69-1.4
US dollar index95.0096.431.431.5
Platinum Price984.50951.20-33.30-3.4
Palladium Price610.35667.5557.209.4

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Today GOLD PRICE backed off $7.80 (0.6%) to $1,146.00 while SILVER through tight-clasped fingers gave up on 1.9 cents, closing at $15.106.

Gold Price
Ain't no cloudy sky here at the Moneychanger's. This is normal market action. Both silver and GOLD PRICES have rallied off July lows. Rallies, remember, go up and down, zig and zag, two steps up, one step back. Yesterday the gold price hit that downtrend line from the January high, and today backed off a smidge. Recall yesterday, when it rose $22.20, and be content. Recall the market proverb: bulls get rich, and bears get rich, but pigs get slaughtered.

Silver Price
Yesterday SILVER ran into the downtrend line from the April 2013 high. Again, at major resistance markets often have to take two or three runs at it to break through. Look, it's in an uptrend -- higher highs and higher lows -- from the July bottom. It's the early stages of a rally. Wait till the jet fuel kicks in.

Time to buy silver and gold. The long winter of correction has passed.

In the global scheme of gold and silver markets, we in the retail market are mere pissants. Yet last week one pissant retail dealer I know bought a big ($5 bn/yr +) dealer out of 100 oz bars (he refused to sell any more) AND thousand ounce bars. Deliveries of 100 oz bars and one ounce rounds have stretched out to 4 - 6 weeks, nobody knows when the US mint will deliver silver American Eagles, and the Canadian mint has fallen behind on delivering silver Maple Leaves. Those who have a few silver American Eagles are selling them north of $5/oz over spot, and US 90% silver coin, one of the very few actually in hand and shippable silver, costs $4.65/oz over spot at wholesale. Almost everything else carries a wait of 4 - 6 weeks.

Even given the American silver retail products industry's tinyness as opposed to the world market, doesn't it seem awfully curious that this little pissant corner of the market could run slap out of silver? I don't fancy those internet gurus who can leap to tall (unjustified) conclusions at a single bound, but this retail market silver shortage leaves me wondering just how much silver really exists in the world -- silver that can be brought to market immediately.

If our little footnote market indicates anything, it's that far less ready-for-market silver exists than people suspect. I've always called silver the Rodney Dangerfield of precious metals because it don't get no respect, but one of these days silver will avenge that contempt with soaring prices. Hide'n watch.

Demonstrating that the American public may in fact be as stupid as Our Masters believe, stocks rose today after Comrade Janet Yellen's drooling about higher interest rates to come later this year. In a pig's eye. Anyway, emboldened by Janet's silly blarney, stock buyers eager for punishment crowded in and ran the Dow up 264 points, but, whoops, after 2:00 the rats started leaping out of the ship and it closed up only 113.35 (0.7%) at 16,314.67. S&P500 fared not so well, ending down 0.9 (0.05%) at 1931.34.

Is this bad? Let me count the ways. First, stocks made the gains, but were too weak to hold on to them --- too many sellers waiting for just one more tick up. More, the S&P500 and the Dow gainsayed each other, not ever a rosy outcome for indices that kiss and hold hands. Finally, both indices ended the week lower, never a token of good times to come.

Speaking of sellers, y'all ought to take advantage of ANY stock rally to sell stocks. More weeping, wailing, and gnashing coming.

US DOLLAR INDEX followed stocks up, climbed over its 50 DMA, shot up to a 96.88 high, then fell back to close almost dead on the 50 DMA (96.42). Buyers and sellers evenly matched. Dollar will eventually resolve, downward. Ultimate target is a dollar index below 50.

The UN has published its Global Goals which promise to end extreme poverty, fight inequality and injustice, fix climate change, and cure athlete's foot and halitosis. Where do they get this stuff? Listen, folks, all these moonbeams will vanish quicker'n you can say "Morons in charge" when the economy gets tough, and toughen it will. Truth is, if you can't survive digging grubs out of flower pots, you may not make it. Y'all hear that, millennials? Ain't no Starbucks in flower pots. I ain't worried. I got me a tin bill and I can peck in the dirt with the chickens.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.