|Gold Price, $/oz||1,063.80||-2.00||-0.19%|
|Silver Price, $/oz||14.06||0.01||0.04%|
|Dow in GOLD $s||347.61||3.92||1.14%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||16.82||0.19||1.14%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||1,272.74||11.53||0.91%|
|US Dollar Index||99.82||-0.39||-0.39%|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
Gold's latest Commitments of Traders are the most bullish in 14 years, according to Clive Maund. Silver's CoTs have improved, but not like gold's.
What does that mean? That the dumb money is as short as it has been at any time in 14 years, and the smart money is long (not short). Nothing supercharges a rally like terrified shorts scurrying to cover their position and get out at any price. This doesn't say exactly when a rally will happen, only that it should happen soon.
Meanwhile this Thursday the criminals at the European Central Bank meet in their equivalent of an FOMC meeting. Everyone expects them to announce they will suppress interest rates into even more negative territory and print more money (Quantitative Easing). Here in Never-Never-Land the expectation that the ECB will further debase its currency and torture the economy with negative interest rates sends the euro up and the dollar down. I just report it, I don't try to make any sense out of it.
With yesterday's close the GOLD PRICE had painted out a key reversal's first half, but failed to close higher today. More equivocation and mealy-mouthing. The gold price needs to jump OVER $1,080, about where the 20 DMA stands right now. By the way, that low last Friday took the price of gold through the bottom line of its post-2013 falling wedge, but it has bounced back up into that wedge. Silver did not reach that bottom boundary (now about $13.00), but it's so oversold it doesn't much matter.
|Dow in Gold|
|Dow in Silver|
Surely it's only a matter of time before silver and gold prices bite back.
Welcome to Never-Never-Land, where nothing ever makes sense. Latest sign of a robust economy is Puerto Rico, having defaulted on its August bond payments, barely missing default on the 1 December payment, and warning it will probably default on January. This was such good news that the Dow rose 168.43 (0.95%) to 17,888.95 and the frenzied S&P500 augmented 22.22 (1.07%) to 2,102.63. This pokes both through the overhead upside-down bowl topping formation, but no more than early November. They're counting on more stimulus from the ECB.
All this volatility characterizes a topping market as new bearish opinion wrestles with old bullish. That kicked neither the Dow in Silver nor the Dow in Gold to new highs. They are vibrating. Big move coming as they have no fuel left to rise.
Dollar tumbled 39 basis points (0.38%) today to 99.82 and the bottom boundary of that rising wedge I mentioned yesterday. MACD has turned down. Next large move is gravity's. If the Fed fails to raise rates, the sound of many waters you will hear will be the dollar being flushed down the tube.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.