I Remain Persuaded That We Are Watching the Gold Price Bottom, but the Market Will Certainly Tell Us

Gold Price Close Today : 1093.30
Change: 7.30 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.175
Change: 16.0 cents or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1418.50
Change: 28.10 or 2.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 357.75
Change: 0.00 or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.66
Change: -0.170 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial: 10,466.44
Change: 1.51 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 77.88
Change: -0.37 or -0.5%

I got home from Nashville too late last night to send a commentary, so I am writing this at 7:00 a.m. CST.

If silver was refusing to confirm gold's monstrous advance on the upside, it is now refusing to confirm its tumble down. Yesterday gold dropped 9.40 to close at $1,086 on Comex, then traded $2 - $4 lower in the aftermarket.

Gold's low came at 1079.20, and overall gold handled a down day not too badly. Will that low hold? Ought to for a while, anyway, as it left behind a spike on the chart. Level to watch today is $1,080. If gold breaks below that, then it drops to $1,070. I remain persuaded that we are watching the gold price bottom, but the market will certainly tell us.

Yesterday silver made its low about 16.75, and it didn't stay there long, just long enough to leave a spike behind, then it closed above 17.00 again, at 17.015, down a measly 1/2 cent. Today silver needs to stay above 16.90, and close above 17.00 cents again. Appears able to do that.

I can only repeat what I said yesterday: when the market hits your target, you buy. Gold and silver have hit my target.

Yesterday the US DOLLAR INDEX rose to 78.302, up 26.5 basis points It shot as high as 78.36, then fell back to traded sideways. This appears to be a shallow correction that won't last long, but if that's true the dollar index shouldn't climb above 80.1, which would be a 25% correction & is nested near the 200 DMA (now 79.44), also a likely target.

STOCKS, looking at the Dow, appear to have left behind a sort of Island reversal since last Wednesday. Dow fell sharply Thursday, from 10,450, traded sideways in a band from 10,350 to 10,250, then yesterday jumped strongly out of that band from 10,350 to 10,400. Result looks like the cross section of a tea cup with a thick bottom. Still, that doesn't solve anything, since 10,250 - 10,500 is the same range the Dow has been jailed in for some time. A break above 10,500 would carry to 11,000. Yesterday Dow closed up 50.79 at 10,164.93 & S&P closed up 3.97 at 1,118.02.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

When a Market Hits Your Targets, Reason & Courage Allow Only One Course: Close Your Eyes and Buy

Gold Price Close Today : 1095.40
Change: -15.40 or -1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.020
Change: -28.50 cents or -1.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1414.00
Change: -24.00 or -1.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 362.00
Change: 2.50 or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.36
Change: 0.170 or 0.3%

Dow Industrial: 10,197.47
Change: -93.79 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index: 78.01
Change: 0.35 or 0.5%

I apologize for missing y'all yesterday evening, but it was St. Thomas' Day & I ran out of day before I got to write a commentary. Today I have to take my wife up to Nashville Christmas shopping, so I may miss y'all this evening as well. But this is written at 8:15 a.m., and yesterday's events give us a pretty good handle on markets since my targets have been reached.

US DOLLAR INDEX rose 35 basis points to 78.01. The dollar is trying to break through a double top Friday and Monday at 78. Overnight it tried to trade higher, but now is below 78 and wallowing in the waves. That would follow the typical dollar pattern, a burst to strength then failure to follow through. Soon should come 79.5 and the 200 DMA (79.49). Don't be scared: it's only the bogeyman.

STOCKS remain range-bound. Yesterday Dow closed up 85.25 at 10,414.14 and S&P 500 up 11.58 at 1,114.05. Range-bound is range-bound, & there's nothing to say about it until it breaks out of that range. Seems the Nice Government Men are in there buying, trying to drive it higher. Lots of luck. Bias is down, but even as I say that remember that stocks could make another push up that might take the Dow as high as 11,000 amid cries that a new day has dawned. It hasn't, some NGM just turned on a flashlight, & the batteries WILL run down.

SILVER & GOLD have touched my targets in overnight trading. Gold made a low at $1,085.75, which smites my targets, namely, a 38.2% correction of the Nov. 08 - Dec. 08 rise, & 25% of April 09- Dec 09.

Earlier this morning gold was pitty-patting with the $1,085 level, but the London fix was $1,094 and gold now sits at $1,092. Options here are (1) a further drop to $1,070, or (2) this is the bottom limit of the drop, an early Christmas present for you.

SILVER traded down to 16.80 overnight, fulfilling my targeted 25% correction of the 7/09 - 12/09 rise and 38.2% of the 11/08-12/09 rise. Silver stands at the moment of truth. Either she holds 16.80 or falls to 16.50-16.00.

O Fear! O Greed! What strait places you bring us to! When a market hits your targets, reason & courage allow only one course: close your eyes and buy. Swallow fear, swat greed, and buy.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Weakness Next Week Could Take the Gold Price to $1,085 - $1,088 or even $1,070 That Would Mark the Low for the Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 1,110.80
Gold Price Close 11-Dec :1,119.40
Change: -8.60 or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.30
Silver Price Close 11-Dec : 17.084
Change: 22.10 cents or 1.3%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,429.20
Platinum Price Close 11-Dec : 1,431.00
Change: -1.80 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today: 364.25
Palladium Price Close 11-Dec: 359.60
Change: 4.65 or 1.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.19
Gold Silver Ratio 11-Dec: 65.52
Change: -1.33 or -2.0%

Dow Industrial: 10328.89
Dow Industrial 11-Dec: 10471.5
Change: -142.61 or -1.4%

US Dollar Index: 77.733
US Dollar Index 11-Dec: 76.551
Change: 1.18 or 1.5%

The week doesn't lie, as they say. Now there's a heap of blowing out of both sides of the mouth, but there's no lie. 'Tis up to us to hear what it's saying.

First let's talk about my least favorite subject, the scrofulous US Dollar. As I suspected, its rally hath begun, but 'tain't much. Took it forever to get above 77.50, but now it has & so confirmed that it is rallying. Target is 79.50 or even 83 with a strong tailwind & maybe another world-wide liquidity crisis. But I expect this rally to show itself short-lived and shallow, and here's why: silver & gold are not signaling, or on schedule for, a huge correction, & a gargantuan dollar rally would send silver & gold down sharply. So stay out of the dollar's way for a while, 'cause it's climbing higher.

STOCKS remain range-bound with the Dow between 10,500 and 10,250. Still looks to me like the Dow is rolling over to the downside, but between now & year end it might spike as high as 11,000, meaning nothing more than a cap on this rally. Continue to ignore Wall Street's siren song. Stay away from stocks.

Did y'all notice that gold did NOT follow through on yesterday's fall? On Comex it closed at $1,110.80, up $4. That argues that gold may have bottomed, but then, this is Friday & because people are closing out positions on Friday & taking profits for the week, sometimes Friday's close is a little distorted. I was expecting the low to hit this week, and it probably did yesterday. However, weakness next week could take gold to $1,085 - $1,088 or even $1,070. That would mark the low for the correction.

Now some of y'all might have wrongly concluded that I am a blind perma-bull for silver & gold, & that's why I keep looking for a bottom, & y'all would be dead wrong. But when you're in a bull market, your interpretative bias ought to be with the bull. There's no reason to forecast that the current correction will be other than short and shallow. To come to that silver & gold would have to smash through some really stringy, tough resistance, & they haven't.

Perma-bull? Not me. There is a time for all things. With investing there is a time to buy, & a time to sell. Never forget it, because that is the most common mistake investors make: they can't sell.

Now look at silver, sweet silver. On Comex today it rose 12.5 cents to 1730.5. Silver's low so far came last week at 1708.4. On the downside silver might drop to 1680. If silver & gold drop farther, it will happen early next week. Do not wait for further lows if you see gold close above $1,132 or silver above 1770c. Go ahead & buy, because those closes will confirm that the metals have turned around.

Right now I half believe we have seen the lows. Whether so or they come next week, metals will then trade sideways to higher & take off after 1 January. So whether we touch those lows I've listed above, or close above the breakouts above, I would buy my silver or gold before year end.

Speaking of year-end, let me give y'all our publishing schedule. I will disappear on Christmas Eve, 24 December, & not return until Epiphany, January 6. Not only will I be celebrating the Twelve Days of Christmas, but my youngest son Zachariah will be getting married out in Washington State on New Year's Eve. So the whole mob of us will be trooping out there. I promise y'all I will kick up my heels in Seattle, even if they won't be able to understand a word I say. Zach is the next to the last of our seven children to get married, & a celebration is in order.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Gold's Fall Has Just About Exhausted Itself

Gold Price Close Today : 1106.80
Change: -28.70 or -2.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.180
Change: -49.9 cents or -2.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1420.00
Change: -33.00 or -2.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 359.25
Change: -12.50 or -3.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.42
Change: 0.195 or 0.3%

Dow Industrial: 10,308.26
Change: -132.86 or -1.3%

US Dollar Index: 76.76
Change: 0.76 or 1.0%

The GOLD PRICE fell steadily all day long after peaking about $1,142 yesterday late. It didn't fall straight down, but rather marched down at a 45 degree angle. Comex close at $1,106.80 (down 28.70) was a new low close and violated the last low close and the last intraday low. No surprise then that the aftermarket took gold further under the water to $1,097.20. Assuming this $1,100 level fails to hold, gold will drop to $1,085 - $1,088 where it will complete a 38.2% correction of the rise from November 2008 to December 2009. Next support is $1,070 then $1,025. However, I expect the bottom to occur with in the next two days, and not lower than $1,085.

Oddly, the SILVER PRICE looked better than the gold price today, Silver's low was $17.05, not a new low. Comex silver closed down 49.9c at $17.18, not a new low close (that came at $17.084 on 11 Dec.) If support at $17.00 crumples, then I expect $16.80 will hold. If not, hello $16.00. A spectacular buying opportunity for silver and gold lurks somewhere in the next few days. Watch out!

Here's an interesting chart that offers a different perspective. A chart of gold measured by the US dollar index.



It closed today at $1,414, falling through its 50 DMA (1465) today to lateral support at $1,418.70. Momentum indicators are very oversold, meaning gold's fall has just about exhausted itself.

Okay, the scrofulous US dollar closed over 77.50 today. In fact, it rose 76.4 basis points to 77.759. NOW it looks like it is rallying. Target is 79.50 where the 200 DMA now stands at 78.60. Dollar could even climb to 83, where there is lateral resistance and the 300 DMA.

STOCKS took a big blow today. Dow dropped 132.86 to close at $0,308.26, barely a point off the low. Same holds for the S&P500, down 13.1 at 1096.8. If the Dow breaks 10,235, it will drop to 10,120 -- and so on.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Gold Price is Sawing Between $1,128 and $1,115, Going Neither Forward nor Backward

Gold Price Close Today : 1122.40
Change: -0.90 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.441
Change: -11.5 cents or 0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1446.80
Change: 2.60 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 364.50
Change: -1.40 or -0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.35
Change: -0.479 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,452.00
Change: -49.05 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index: 76.91
Change: -0.22 or -0.3%

Friday through Monday the US DOLLAR INDEX traded out into the nose of a long even-sided triangle. Early today it broke through 76.60 resistance, jumped straight up to 77.10, then faded to the present 76.992, up 56.3 basis points. Chart looks like a tired crane going to sleep. It ought to close above 77 next day or two, then we will see just how lazy and feckless this rally really. At 77.50 resistance it will really have to go to work.

Today's gold low at $1,111.60 confirmed two similar lows last Friday and Saturday, painting a double bottom of sorts. Gold is sawing between $1,128 and $1,115, going neither forward nor backward. Who knows, we might have already seen the bottom in Friday's crisis. Till January we may be plagued with a sideways market talking out of both sides of its mouth (that's the English translation of "equivocal"). Right now we can only wait for breakout one way or the other: over $1,128 and then $1,142, or below $1,110. In between lies merely consolidation & marking time.


Silver made a V-bottom Friday at 1688, rose and has since twice tested & defended 1710c. However, like gold, silver is rangebound between 1710c and 1740c (then 1760c). Can't say much till silver tells us which way it is going by a breakout.

Silver & gold have both worked off their overbought conditions, and are I suspect very near a bottom. Rally should re-ignite in January.

Silver today rose 11.5c to 1744.1c, while gold fell 90c to $1,122.40. Confusion.

STOCKS gav e the lie to that marginal upside breakout yesterday by opening lower and staying there all day. The Dow closed at 10452, down 49.05 & S&P500 closed at 1,1073, down 6.18. Dow coiuld still spike higher briefly, but this game will end in tears by mid-January latest.


I did some fascinating research on the Gold/Silver Ratio chart today, and have found an indicator that very, very reliably points to a much lower ratio. In addition, the ratio is either at or near its high, which implies silver & gold are near their lows.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

After 1 January the Gold Price Rally Should Resume and Carry to a High Sometime Mid-February to Mid-March

Gold Price Close Today : 1119.40
Gold Price Close December 4: 1,168.00
Change: -48.60 or -4.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.084
Silver Price Close December 4: 18.496
Change: -141.20 cents or -7.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,431.00
Platinum Price Close December 4: 1,442.00
Change: -11.00 or -0.8%

Palladium Price Close Today: 359.60
Palladium Price Close December 4: 373.50
Change: -13.90 or -3.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.52
Gold Silver Ratio December 4: 63.15
Change: 2.37 or 3.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,471.50
Dow Industrial December 4: 10,338.90
Change: 132.60 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index: 76.551
US Dollar Index December 4: 75.771
Change: 0.78 or 1.0%

'Twasn't a good week for silver or gold, stocks went no place much, but the scrofulous US dollar rallied a whole 1%.

How oddly markets behave! Between 8:30 and 9:45 a.m. Eastern the US dollar index shot from 75.90 to 76.726, then went graveyard flat to barely lower the rest of the day. Now it's riding at 76.551, up 50.6 basis points but still cowering under the baleful eye of of 76.60. To prove it is rallying beyond any quibble, the dollar index must rise above 77.50. The dollar's momentum indicators are fantastically overbought, but as gold showed us lately, overbought can last a long time. Odds favour the dollar rallying further still.

In its tumble since 2 December gold has already corrected most of its overbought-ness. However, the rally I was looking for yesterday evening came overnight. Gold reached $1,142 but 8:00 a.m. Eastern then fell until noon and settled flatly around $1,115, where it languisheth still. At the Comex close (1:30 Eastern) gold registered $1,119.40, down $6.30.

Because it is trading lower in the aftermarket, and because gold's low close at $1,120 has now been violated and see a correction below $1,050. Rest of the year gold will edge sideways and higher. After 1 January the rally should resume and carry to a high sometime mid-February to mid-March.

Always more volatile, silver has dropped from 19.295 to 17.084 today, losing 221.1 cents or 11.5%. Expect it to fall a little further. Bottom most likely is around 16.78, but silver could drop to 16.00. If silver passes 16.00, it could drop to the 200 DMA at 15.00. The low should be in place by Wednesday, so if you are planning to buy on this correction, you'd better keep an eye peeled.

Yesterday the GOLD/SILVER RATIO smote 65.704 (today it's 65.52), nearly touching the 200 DMA (65.887, a likely target) and the downtrend line. If you have any gold left you want to swap, Monday may be your last chance. (Yes, I said swap GOLD into SILVER.)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains trapped in a range from 10,250 to 10,500. To my jaundiced eye it appears to be rolling over in a rounding top, but strange things happen. Internal strength is eroding but stocks could still punch to a slightly higher high before collapsing. Take advantage of stock market strength to sell any remaining stocks, and yes, that includes stocks in your IRA & 401(k). You've been
warned.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

I Believe the Gold Price Bottomed Yesterday at the $1,116.80 Low.

Gold Price Close Today : 1125.70
Change: 5.30 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.133
Change: 1.5 cents or -3.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1420.00
Change: 9.00 or 0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 368.00
Change: 1.00 or 2.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.70
Change: 0.252 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial: 10,405.83
Change: 68.78 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index: 76.02
Change: -0.30 or -0.4%

My, my, my, isn't that noteworthy? The GOLD PRICE traded down all day from $1,132 before the open to $1,121.40 near the close, then snapped back in 20 minutes to $1,132. Still managed to close on Comex (1:30 Eastern) up $5.30 at $1,125.70.

But is that any more noteworthy than silver? On Comex the SILVER PRICE closes at $17.133, up a meager 1.5 cents, but in the aftermarket trades to $17.43. My, my, my. Sure.

Put your eyeglasses on and stare at that gold price chart. Clearly $1,132 is now the next overhead resistance to beat. Hey! Move over! I want to crawl out further on that limb. I believe gold bottomed yesterday at the $1,116.80 low. Why? Look at the 5 day and 3 day charts for gold. Note the low yesterday, then a falling wedge formed, then it broke out upside, touched back, and traded higher. Or you can view it as an even- sided triangle from yesterday's high and low, with a breakout from the triangle's nose. Further, there is a breakout on the 5 day chart above the 4-day downtrend line.

If 'twas a bottom, tomorrow will close above $1,132, maybe even knock on $1,145. Those are the next two resistance levels to beat. My it-has-bottomed theory would be demolished by a close below $1,120.40. In that case the gold price ought to halt at $1,085 to $1,090.

The silver price on the three day chart has made a double bottom yesterday and today at $17.10. Now it needs to climb over $17.45, then $17.80. It has not yet quite pierced the 5 day downtrend line, but trading above $17.45 and closing there tomorrow will accomplish that. If silver has not already bottomed, 'twill drop to $16.79 (38.2% correction of the 7/09 to 12/09 rise and 25% correction of the Nov. 08 to Dec. 09 rise). Unless in the morning they trade below $17.10 and $1,120, start buying silver and gold. Nibble, at least. Tentatively I can say the correction has ended, but the market will speak for itself on the morrow.

US DOLLAR INDEX fell again today, 4 basis points for a psychology-bashing close below 76 at 75.97. Dollar must close above 76.15 to rally and must not close below 75.80 or it curdles and drops.

STOCKS must close over 10,450, really 10,500, to convince the market they are about to trade higher. On the other hand, they must hold above 10,250 to keep from free-falling. Stay out. Dow closed today at 10,405.83, up 68.78, while S&P500 crept up 6.39 at 1,102.34.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Sharpest Plunge Comes at the First, then it Begins Trading Up and Sideways

Gold Price Close Today : 1120.40
Change: -$22.4 or 2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.158
Change: -62.7 cents or -3.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1417.10
Change: -5.00 or -0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 368.75
Change: -6.00 or -1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.30
Change: 1.043 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,337.05
Change: 51.08 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index: 76.02
Change: -0.30 or -0.4%

Gold was fine, bouncing along between $1,145 and $1,150 when it tried to run $1,152.50 about 11:00 am (Eastern). Attempt failed, then gold fell through $1,145 all the way to its low at $1,124.30 about 3:00 p.m. On Comex gold tumbled $20.60 to $1,142.80, then fell further in the aftermarket. Right now it's trading from $1,126 to $1,131.

Today gold fell through its 20 DMA (1,159.04). That sets up two diverse targets: about $1,100 lateral support coinciding with an $1,094 50 DMA, OR $1,085 (the 25% correction of the Nov. 2008 to Dec. 2009 move and 38.2% correction of the end-April 2009 to Dec. 2009 move.)

Now we have to reckon with a correction lasting two to four weeks. Remember, though, that the sharpest plunge comes at the first, then it begins trading up and sideways.

SILVER closed on Comex down 55.1 cents to 17.785. Today's low (17.445) roughly matches the Thanksgiving day low (17.67), and also takes silver below its 20 and 50 DMAs. Next support is 16.77, then 16. If silver can't hold back the tide, the 200 DMA stands at 14.36. (Markets in a primary uptrend -- bull market -- from time to time correct (fall) to their 200 DMA, which acts as a floor beneath the market.)

Let reason, balance, and fair-mindedness wash over y'all for a moment. If y'all thought it was loads of fun riding this bull up, then don't complain when he stumbles to his knees. He will rise again.

Yahoo, the US DOLLAR INDEX finally rose today, and right now is trading at 76.198, up 43.1 basis points. The $ Index crossed above its 20 DMA (75.15) two days ago and today closed above its 50 DMA (75.68). Unless 76.50 resistance stops it, 'twill shoot for 77 - 77.50 where stronger resistance awaits. Odd, even at these low levels the dollar's momentum indicators appear strongly overbought.

Lo, both silver and gold were vulnerable to reactions after their extended rises, but one wonders -- just idly wonders -- whether their fall got a shove from the Nice Government Men? Or the dollar got a leg up? Why would they do that? Oh, oh, did I forget to mention that Bernanke had a hearing this week in congress about his re-appointment as Fed chairman? Naaawww, not a chance those things could be connected. . . . Is there?



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Now We Have to Reckon With a Gold and Silver Price Correction Lasting Two to Four Weeks

Gold Price Close Today : 1,142.80
Change: -$20.60

Silver Price Close Today : 17.785
Change: -55.1 cents

Platinum Price Close Today: 1411.20
Change: -20.40 or -1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 365.95
Change: -1.35 or -0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.45
Change: 0.257 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial: 10,285.97
Change: -104.14 or -1.0%

US Dollar Index: 76.20
Change: -0.43 or -0.6%

Market certainly made itself clear today. The GOLD PRICE was fine, bouncing along between $1,145 and $1,150 when it tried to run $1,152.50 about 11:00 am (Eastern). Attempt failed, then the gold price fell through $1,145 all the way to its low at $1,124.30 about 3:00 p.m. On Comex gold tumbled $20.60 to $1,142.80, then fell further in the aftermarket. Right now it's trading from $1,126 to $1,131.

Today the gold price fell through its 20 DMA (1,159.04). That sets up two diverse targets: about $1,100 lateral support coinciding with an $1,094 50 DMA, OR $1,085 (the 25% correction of the Nov. 2008 to Dec. 2009 move and 38.2% correction of the end-April 2009 to Dec. 2009 move.) Now we have to reckon with a correction lasting two to four weeks. Remember, though, that the sharpest plunge comes at the first, then it begins trading up and sideways.

The SILVER PRICE closed on Comex down 55.1 cents to $17.785. Today's low (17.445) roughly matches the Thanksgiving day low ($17.67), and also takes silver below its 20 and 50 DMAs. Next support is $16.77, then $16.00. If silver can't hold back the tide, the 200 DMA stands at $14.36. (Markets in a primary uptrend -- bull market -- from time to time correct (fall) to their 200 DMA, which acts as a floor beneath the market.)

Let reason, balance, and fair-mindedness wash over y'all for a moment. If y'all thought it was loads of fun riding this bull up, then don't complain when he stumbles to his knees. He will rise again.

Yahoo, the US DOLLAR INDEX finally rose today, and right now is trading at 76.198, up 43.1 basis points. The $ Index crossed above its 20 DMA (75.15) two days ago and today closed above its 50 DMA (75.68). Unless 76.50 resistance stops it, 'twill shoot for 77 - 77.50 where stronger resistance awaits. Odd, even at these low levels the dollar's momentum indicators appear strongly overbought.

Lo, both silver and gold prices were vulnerable to reactions after their extended rises, but one wonders -- just idly wonders -- whether their fall got a shove from the Nice Government Men? Or the dollar got a leg up? Why would they do that? Oh, oh, did I forget to mention that Bernanke had a hearing this week in congress about his re-appointment as Fed chairman? Naaawww, not a chance those things could be connected. . . . Is there?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Evidence Favours Silver and Gold Prices Advancing Further

Gold Price Close Today : 1163.40
Change: -4.50 or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.336
Change: -16.0 cents or -0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1435.70
Change: 1.00 or 0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today: 373.35
Change: 3.00 or 0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.45
Change: 0.257 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial: 10,391.11
Change: 1.21 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 75.72
Change: 0.07 or 0.1%

Today's action doesn't clear up the bewilderment left behind Friday's drops, at least not in my mind. If anything, the weight of the evidence favours SILVER and GOLD PRICES advancing further.

When I came in this morning about 10:30 Central, the GOLD PRICE was trading at $1,145 and the SILVER PRICE at $17.97. That didn't last long, as gold rose almost 20 bucks and silver about 30 cents. Comex closes saw the gold price down 5.40 from Friday at $1,163.40 and the silver price down 16 cents at $18.3360. Here's where the bafflement arises: $18.00 and $1,140 are both support areas for silver and gold. So neither followed through significantly on Friday's falls, except to ease down to the next support area, then rise afterward. Think about that: driven down, bounces off support, rises up off the day's lows. That doesn't describe a collapsing market, but on the contrary a strong one.

I'm not a prophet, so have to wait for the market to tip its hand. Breaks below today's lows ($17.84 and $1,135.85) would signal trouble, but holding on here and trading sideways or advancing above Friday's lows and continuing above Thursday's highs means the Rally Machine has been cranked up again.

The US DOLLAR INDEX needs to climb above 76.50, at least 76.00, to prove that it has turned around. Today it rose a meager 7.3 basis points to close 75.72, failing to pierce 76, after a high at 76.18. What does that show? That nobody much was willing to hop on to the dollar and buy it. Indecision. No confidence. Doesn't feel like a market rising, but the dollar takes a long time to turn around, so maybe that fits after all.

STOCKS today are confused also. The Dow rose 1.21 points to close 10,390.11 while the S&P50 fell 2.73 to 1,103.25. Other indices were likewise mixed.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Take This Gold and Silver Price Correction as an Opportunity to Buy More, Cheaper

Gold Price Close Today : 1,168.00
Gold Price Close November 25: 1,187.00
Change: -19.00 or -1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.496
Silver Price Close November 25: 18.768
Change: -27.20 cents or -1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,442.00
Platinum Price Close November 25: 1,475.30
Change: -33.30 or -2.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 373.50
Palladium Price Close November 25: 375.20
Change: -1.70 or -0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.15
Gold Silver Ratio November 25: 63.25
Change: -0.10 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,338.90
Dow Industrial November 25: 10,464.40
Change: -125.50 or -1.2%

US Dollar Index: 75.771
US Dollar Index November 25: 74.346
Change: 1.43 or 1.9%

Whoo--eee, big surprise this week for those who believe that GOLD and SILVER PRICES always rise and the scrofulous US dollar always falls.

Today the US DOLLAR INDEX broke through 74.80 about 8:30 a.m. and left behind two runaway gaps. It climbed all day reaching 75.936 around 3:00 p.m. Right now its trading 75.771, up 114 basis points for the day.

On a weekly chart this looks like nothing, but on a daily chart today's action implies a move to 77.50, provided the dollar can close above 76.50 next week. Odds favour a dollar rally here. No big deal. A corpse will sit up, too, if you hit him with enough electricity. After the jolt, he's still dead.

Now y'all remember I am no prophet, only a poor Tennessee ridge runner and natural born fool turned loose with a forecast, so realize that I am making educated guesses here. If y'all had been carefully watching, you would have noticed that the bottoms in July, mid-August, end-September, and October all happened between 4% & 4.8% down from their preceding peaks. On 2 December gold made an intraday peak at $1,226.40. A 4.8% drop from there takes you to $1,170.23, not far off today's $1,168.80 close (down a painful $48.60).

So where this correction is headed is not so easy to gauge.

If the GOLD PRICE does not catch here or around $1150 - $1160 (the 20 day moving average is now 1156.34), it could drop to $1,088. Another candidate is a 25% correction of the April to December move from $865 - $1,226, namely, $1,136.05. From a raw look at the chart, big support comes in at $1,070. Gold could drop further but it could just as well turn around Monday and slap everybody's jaws. Either way, take this correction as an opportunity to buy more, cheaper. After this correction, gold will take off again and you'll be moaning and complaining to yourself, "Why didn't I buy when it dropped?"

The SILVER PRICE, not as overbought as gold, has not corrected as much as the gold price. No sooner had I let fly the words from my mouth yesterday that it wasn't to be expected that the Gold/Silver Ratio would fall by gold dropping while silver held steady or rose, than the market makes a liar out of me next day. Ratio fell from 63.72 yesterday to 63.19 today.

The silver price could end its correction here, but $18.00 is very strong resistance. If silver falls through $18.00, then pick your target: last low at $16.06, 200 day moving average at $14.92, or $12.50 June low. All are possible, but a bottom is still due in the ratio about year end, and that usually coincides with silver and gold price highs. Also, that $1,300 target for gold is still good. All that argues against a sharp breakdown here.

It appears we may be dealing with trading like Oct-Nov 2007, when metals corrected after a wild 3-month run, then took off again for Gold $1,000 in March 2008. One way or the other, silver and gold prices remain in a bull market, but be careful.

STOCKS are rolling over, readying for a big drop. They are losing fast against silver and gold.

Gold coin and silver bullion remain scarce. With all the marketing genius native to government enterprises, the US Mint has suspended production of gold and silver American Eagles. They probably won't re-appear until the mint has "re-tooled" for 2010, which means February. Stick with silver US 90% coin snd gold Austrian 100 coronas or Mexican 50 pesos. In small coins look for bargains on Swiss or French 20 francs or the Mexican peso series.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Last Time The Gold Price Was This Overbought Occurred at an Interim Top in Oct. 2007 at $850

Gold Price Close Today : 1207.50
Change: -4.50 or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.845
Change: -45.0 cents or -2.3%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1486.00
Change: 27.00 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 386.00
Change: 14.00 or 3.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.08
Change: 1.261 or 2.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,366.15
Change: -86.53 or -0.8%

US Dollar Index: 74.84
Change: 0.13 or 0.2%

The GOLD PRICE eroded all day, clearly reacting from its $1,221.65 high. If $1,200 can't contain its fall tomorrow, then next logical support is $1,190, then $1,180, both stepping stones on the way up.

Doesn't bother me a bit that gold is correcting. It will help gold the same way pruning makes a peach tree more fruitful.

Last time gold was this overbought occurred at an interim top in Oct. 2007 at $850. It stayed overbought off and on (interrupted by one correction) for two months. Afterward (after a correction trimmed back the overbought condition) it soared to its 2008 high at $1,000. It was actually less overbought at that top than it had been in October 2007.

Any short declines in the SILVER PRICE should be stopped at $18.50, or even $18.00. Silver is lagging gold, sending the ratio higher, but silver's strongest performance always kicks in toward the END of a rally.

STOCKS are collapsing against silver and gold. Dow in Gold Dollars closed today at G$177.46 (8.585 oz) while Dow in Silver Ounces is 549.64. In yankee dollar terms the Dow ground down 86.53 today to close at 10,366.15. S&P500 fell 9.32 to 1,099.92. Stocks have probably peaked.

Anybody who thinks that today's decline in SILVER and GOLD PRICES was caused by US Dollar strength can't add. Dollar index rose by a hole 15 basis points to 74.82, up a magnificent 0.19%. THIS was not what moved silver & gold prices.

US Dollar still refuses to commit itself to a higher or lower course. Must close above 76.50 to prove it is rallying, but remains trapped below 74.90 resistance which once upon atime was support.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Gold Price Has an Upside Target of $1,300 at Least

Gold Price Close Today : 1212.00
Change: 12.90 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.295
Change: 11.5 cents or 0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1497.00
Change: 27.00 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today: 389.00
Change: 14.00 or 3.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.81
Change: 0.296 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial: 10,452.68
Change: -18.90 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index: 74.64
Change: 0.27 or 0.4%

The GOLD PRICE today rose $12.90 to close at $1,212.00, but was trapped all day between $1,206 and $1,217. Gold is badly overbought, but as I am forced to repeat, can get more overbought. Chart is begging for a correction, but can keep rising another 30 days at least. Remember that upside-down head and shoulders gold so laboriously formed over 2008 - 2009 measures out for gold an upside target at $1,300 at least.

The SILVER PRICE (with a high today at $19.42 and low at $19.09) was trapped in a range like gold, $19.10 to $19.40. Silver's indicators simply are not as overbought as gold's. More, the gold/silver ratio actually rose a tadge today. Could gold move sideways while silver climbs faster, sending the ratio down? That would certainly do it, and it's sure silver won't rise while gold falls.

Yes, this rally has lasted a long time already, but it is not over yet. I won't get nervous until gold hits $1,300, although I remain braced for surprises.

So how did stocks fare today? Did they pierce 10,450 and advance? Nope, the Dow fell 19 points to 10,452.68. S&P 500 rose a miniscule 0.38 to close at 1,109.24. Can y'all hear the drums throbbing through the jungle? Bad juju coming, Bwana. Stay out of that jungle, as Tarzan might say.

The Dow in Gold Dollars is collapsing. Even with Dow pushing new highs, today it closed G$178.35 (8.628 oz). Breakdown has begun, and that also signals Snake-eyes for stocks.

The US Dollar index is talking out of both sides of its mouth. Has it bottomed? Has answered one-half of that question, namely, it hasn't fallen through double bottom at 74.245. But all alone, that's not enough. Dollar must also climb off that double bottom and soar above 76. Otherwise 'tis doomed to revisit 73.50 or lower.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Gold Price has New Support at $1,195

Gold Price Close Today : 1199.10
Change: 18.00 or 1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.180
Change: 68.5 cents or 3.7%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1481.50
Change: 27.00 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 381.70
Change: 14.00 or 3.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.52
Change: -1.342 or -2.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,471.58
Change: 126.74 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index: 74.43
Change: -0.45 or -0.6%


The GOLD PRICE broke through new resistance at $1,180 around midnight (what in the world happened at midnight Eastern time?) and shot to nearly $1,200. $1,195 blocked it, so it traded sideways $1,190 - $1,195. Then about 11:00 Eastern time it burst skyward to $1,201.50, and has hovered just below $1,200 ever since, and now $1,195 has become new support.

The Comex close was especially malodorous today at $1,199.10, up $18 but exactly 90 measly cents short of the psychologically crucial $1,200. Shadow of the Nice Government Men, I reckon. I'd bet on gold clearing $1,200 tomorrow, NGM notwithstanding.

The SILVER PRICE hit $18.80 resistance about one this morning, smashed down that gate and shot to $19.25. Then it backed off and traded sideways $19.00 - $19.15. I interpret breaking the $18.80 barrier should be the trigger to set silver off outperforming gold.

Gold is monstrously overbought, which argues against more upward motion, but overbought can remain overbought for quite some time. Silver is NOT similarly overbought. Remote possibility remains this is a trap -- silver rises to new high and then can't follow through -- but tomorrow the market will tell you. Can't drop lower than $18.80 and upside probably will close above $19.20. Wow.

What a day in the markets! The US dollar index fell from midnight straight down, clean back to Thursday's low at 74.346. Low was 74.26, and $ index is trading now at 74.43, down 45 basis points. Either the dollar makes a double bottom here with last Wednesday, or it fails. A failure drags the index quickly to 73.50 or lower.

Stocks have now again reached the top of the Dow's range, so it's decision time. Either the Dow pierces and moves to a new high, or fails here & today's prices mark the top for a long time. I have no dog in this fight as I own no stocks and plan to own none. For a long time.

A couple of readers asked me to comment about the mess in Dubai. Fact is, I don't know sic 'em from come here about Dubai, but who needs to? About twice a week I get an email from Mr. Nkwama Ngozzi in Nigeria who wants to sell me gold from the Niger River at 30% below market, if I will only wire him $2 million in advance. How bright do you have to be to recognize there might be a fishhook in that offer?

Likewise, the center of the universe (financial & otherwise) is going to move to Dubai, and build a waterfront high rise on the Palm Jambalaya, and it's all going to show a 200% profit. . . at the end of the year. Don't need to be a bloodhound to smell the dead body underneath all that. Anything that sounds too good to be true, is. Dubai is merely another corpse falling out of the closets of finance and banking, not the first and won't be the last.

So they owe the banks $60 billion or $80 billion? I'll work up a tear sometime next week. The rest of us will go on plowing and building and doctoring and fixing and digging and generally doing what we do to keep the world going, and what happens to arrogant bankers in London, Zurich, and New York affects me less than a mite on a flea. And if the world's whole financial structure collapses on their heads, then the next day the sun rises I will go out and milk my cow and feed my pigs and chickens and won't notice much difference, other than not writing these commentaries any more. And I'll look forward to a world without the Tapeworms.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Question Now for Silver and Gold Prices is, What Happens Next?

Gold Price Close Today : 1181.10
Change: 6.90 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.495
Change: 19.3 cents or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1455.50
Change: 3.00 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 365.20
Change: -4.00 or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.86
Change: 0.366 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,309.92
Change: -154.48 or -1.5%

US Dollar Index: 74.81
Change: -0.10 or -0.1%

Dubai, Shmubai, what else is new? Did you ever see any pictures of the Palm Jambalaya they were building? Spending like they didn't know what money is, and y'all are surprised they turned up defaulting on $80 billion in debt? Shocking.

Market wasn't terribly surprised either. Dollar jumped, but only barely on the news (conveniently announced on Thanksgiving Day, when all US markets are closed). Ended the day at 75, which from 74.346 was up 46.7 basis points, not the response you'd expect to an earthshaking crisis. The GOLD PRICE closed Friday at $1,174.20, down 16 bucks from all time highs. Yet again, who is surprised, or alarmed? No big move. The SILVER PRICE spiked to $17.67, then closed at $18.30, in the end merely proving that the $18.00 - $18.30 support level will hold.

I'm not saying that SILVER and GOLD PRICES won't lengthen out a correction, but there's no proof yet. In fact, to go through a day like the Dubai announcement and a slight panic, drop but not too sharply, then close up today, folks, that's great performance, not weak.

Today the gold price closed up $6.90 at $1,181.10 and the silver price rose 19.3 cents to end at $18.495 on Comex. I warn in passing that silver and gold prices remain vulnerable to a surprise dollar rally, but so far, no sign of anything falling apart.

Question now for silver and gold prices is, what happens next? Will they hold on or fall? As in the crisis of Fall 2008 gold coins have begun disappearing and premiums are rising. The US Mint helps nothing by halting minting of gold and silver American Eagles. One wholesaler refuses to sell me Krugerrands at all because he can't find them. Others are quoting 2 - 4 week delivery delays on everything but Austrian 100 coronas and Mexiican 50 pesos. None of that argues gold is about to fall. Just the opposite, it shouts that physical demand is surging.

Say to those who are shrieking and pulling out hair, "Grow up. It's a market. It's volatile, and on top of that you have thousands of people working for the Fed and the US government paid thousands of dollars a year to make them more valuable still. Got to get used to it."

US dollar index, as said, rose less than 50 basis points on Friday, and dropped about 20 today to close at 74.813. 'Tain't exactly running away upside.

STOCKS rose today 34.92 to close the Dow at 10,344.84, after Friday's 135 point drop. S&P 500 today closed up 4.14 at 1,095.63. If the Dow closes below 10,120, it sinks.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Gold Price is Headed for $1,300 or Higher Before This Rally Ends

Gold Price Close Today : 1,187.00
Gold Price Close Nov 20: 1,146.50
Change: 40.50 or 3.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.768
Silver Price Close Nov 20: 18.433
Change: 33.50 or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,475.30
Platinum Price Close Nov 20: 1,447.40
Change: 27.90 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 375.20
Platinum Price Close Nov 20: 364.95
Change: 10.25 or 2.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.91
Gold Silver Ratio Nov 20: 61.91
Change: 0.00 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,318.16
Dow Industrial Nov 20: 10,270.47
Change: 146.24 or 1.4%

US Dollar Index: 74.346
US Dollar Index Nov 20: 75.579
Change: -1.23 or -1.6%

Our office will be closed on Friday, so I am sending y'all a weekly report today. God bless you all with Thanksgiving.

I'm beginning to grasp why so many analysts have been missing or questioning the rise in silver and gold. Go look at a gold price history chart, Notice the repeated humps climbing up like a slinky ascending stairs. In fact, the chart is a stairstep.

What's happening? Gold is jumping up to a new level, and the timorous keep waiting for a correction to buy. Gold goes sideways, corrects only the the level it just broke out from, then the sideliners all jump in a buy, sending gold jumping up to the next higher level. This is a VERY strong pattern, because there is so much buying demand right under the market. This is also why "waiting for a correction" has been a terrible idea against today's market.

And more of the same lies ahead. If y'all have been waiting to buy, stop waiting and buy. Gold is headed for $1,300 or higher before this rally ends, and silver to $25.00.

Whoooooo! There she blows, the Dollar Index, headed for Davy Jones' Locker. Dollar index finally broke that support at 74.90 today & sank to trade right now at 74.346, down 73.8 basis points. I told y'all, I told y'all. It may stop at 74 or even 73.50, but could sink all the way to past low at 71. Very good news for gold, unless the dollar makes this a V- or spike bottom and turns around. That is not the dollar's wont, but could happen.

STOCKS: The Dow gained 146 points or 1.4% this week. However, I still think the Dow has burned all its ammunition & is rolling over. Stay out of stocks.

GOLD pulled another jump today, up $21.20 to $1,187.00. Does that make me nervous, rising so fast? You bet, what rises fast falls fast, too, but this rally is real, this rally has legs, this rally is targeting $1,300, and the dollar index just fell through support. That's not quite a recipe for disaster. Will
$l,200 fall next week?

The SILVER PRICE rose 31.3 cents to close the week at 18.768 up only 38.3 cents and 1.8% this week versus gold's 3.5% jump. Silver's lagging has to throw a pall over everything -- but not one so big that it stops the party. If this rally intends to continue, next week gold will burst $1,200 and silver $19.00. Trouble would come only if silver closed below $18 and gold below $1,065.

Premiums on most gold coins rose today. Marketing geniuses at the US Mint announced this week they weren't minting any more silver American Eagles this year, and today announced no more gold American Eagles. Brilliant! What timing!

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Gold Price is Now Blocked by $1,170

Gold Price Close Today : 1165.80
Change: 1.10 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.455
Change: -15.5 cents or -0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1448.80
Change: -8.50 or -0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 369.50
Change: 0.25 or 0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.17
Change: 0.065 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,433.71
Change: -17.24 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index: 75.08
Change: 0.04 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE is now blocked by $1,170. Closed today on Comex up $1.10 at $1,165.80. The gold price is forming a long, narrow flat-topped rising triangle bounded on top by about $1,170. It has traded all the way out into the nose, so should resolve tomorrow with a breakout, but that shouldn't move too far. These flat-topped rising triangles generally resolve upside.

On Comex today the SILVER PRICE dropped 15.5 cents to close $18.455. Gold up, silver down, bite fingernails. Scratch head. Yet again silver was knocked down to $18.30(10:00 a.m.), held, and spent the rest of the day trading sideways and higher, closing near the US day's high.

Another curiosity: the gold/silver ratio has shot up to 63.1. Deep as it may be to fathom, it appears we are watching a correction in which only silver participates. That doesn't sound like a situation fraught with long term stability.

Still, still, I don't believe, in spite of all the confusion, that silver or gold is ready to fall yet. Yes, a correction to $1140 - $1120 and $18.00 could happen at any time, but not yet, not yet.

Let me misstate my poor old self and one of y'all will jump on it like a hobo on a baloney sandwich! An Ozzie friend brought to my attention today that on 20 November I referred to $20.68 as silver's "all-time high." I have no idea what I was thinking, since the all-time high came in 1980 above $50.00. In March 2008, the "last" high, silver hit $20.68. Sorry, sorry!

The scrofulous US $ index hasn't broken the bottom boundary of its range yet (74.90), but has traced out a downtrend. Friday it hit a high, then yesterday a low, fall, then lower peak. Nothing here for hope or optimism to feed on. Last trade was 25.084, down 4.3 basis points from this time yesterday.

Most stocks could manage today was to climb almost to unchanged. Dow dropped sharply on the open to 10,360, then spent the rest of the day rolling that boulder up a hill (like Sisyphus), only to close down 17.25 at 10,433.71. S&P 500 closed down 0.59 at 1,105.65. Is this the beginning of the end? Like living on the edge of a volcano, the fun could begin at any moment, or the quiet last a while. What's that smoke?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Overbought Gold Price Becomes More Overbought, and Climbs Still

Gold Price Close Today : 1164.70
Change: 17.90 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.603
Change: 17 cents or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1457.30
Change: 9.90 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 369.25
Change: 4.30 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.61
Change: 0.957 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,318.16
Change: -14.28 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index: 75.13
Change: -0.35 or -0.5%

Whoa. Overbought becomes more overbought, and climbs still. Makes me get very quiet and thoughtful.

I woke up very early this morning, while the birds were still asleep at 4:30 and
the GOLD PRICE already had surmounted $1186. Silver was $18.85. Gold indicators become more overbought day by day, but gold keeps on steadily advancing. The SILVER PRICE RSI and MACD indicators can stand to climb still more. In euros the gold price verges on breaking out upside through E790. Gold in Yen has long ago broken out above Y97,180 and today closed Y103,800.

A word about "overbought." I remember much of the decade of the 1990s watching the Dow grow more and more overbought. It was impossible to gauge. It would form bearish rising wedges, then break out to the upside. When a market is riding a bull, there's just no telling where it will stop.

Interesting, too, that the gold's bullish behaviour is driving otherwise sane analysts crazy. Analysts whom I thought understood that only monetary demand drives gold's price crazy are now falling back on jewellery demand, as if gold's price was determined by the demand for earrings or anklets. Help -- gold is not oil.

Sure, some of the speculative fever that the Fed has spawned with its low interest rate-run the printing press policies has slopped over into gold, but somebody is not thinking clearly. This is a THIRD wave up, unpredictable, surging like a full moon tide. Ride it till it falls, then when it gets up, mount back up and ride it till it falls again. Point is, overbought can get a lot more overbought still.

I don't think a one of y'all would complain if I completely miscalled gold or silver's movements, but you let me get one Latin verb or modifier wrong, and y'all are on me like a duck on a June bug. Okay, I was wrong. Technically it should be "res ipsA loquitur," because res is feminine & so ipse -a -um must agree with it in gender.

The US DOLLAR INDEX peaked Friday at 75.85 and has sunk ever since. Today once again the dollar bounced along 74.90 support, the bottom of the trading range (74.946 low). The dollar may be turning up, may be preparing to rally, but at the same rate as a glacier speeding through the Alps. Dollar Index flat-lined all day 'twixt 75.095 and 75.15. Today the scrofulous dollar closed at 75.127, down 35.3 basis points.

The Dow jumped up early this morning and stayed level to lower the rest of the day. Slowly, slowly, as always, stocks are rolling over downward. Still may see a spike to
to 11000.

In spite of the Dow's continuing gains, the Dow in Gold Dollars is being crushed. Today it closed at G$183.13 (8.859 oz), moving toward the bottom of its range and another waterfall.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Gold's Big Correction Won't Come Before The Gold Price Finishes This Rally, and Its Target is $1,300

Gold Price Close Today : 1,146.50
Gold Price Close Nov 13: 1,116.10
Change: 30.40 or 2.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.433
Silver Price Close Nov 13: 17.37
Change: 1.0630 or 6.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,447.40
Platinum Price Close Nov 13: 1,393.10
Change: 54.30 or 3.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 364.95
Platinum Price Close Nov 13: 356.80
Change: 8.15 or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.91
Gold Silver Ratio Nov 13: 63.06
Change: -1.15 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,318.16
Dow Industrial Nov 13: 10270.47
Change: 47.69 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index: 75.579
US Dollar Index Nov 13: 75.286
Change:0.29 or 0.4%

The GOLD PRICE closed the week up $30.40, and rose on the day $5 to close on Comex at $1,146.50. In the aftermarket it's trading above $1,150.00. Big news of the week is Gold's running attack on $1,150, but it hasn't beaten down that gate yet. Am I nervous that this rally might end? Well, yes and no. Yes, a correction is long overdue and could come at any time, but only a short and shallow one. The big correction won't come before gold finishes this rally, and its target is $1,300. What makes me most fidgety of all is all this coverage of gold on TV, radio, newspapers. That's feels like the kiss of death, from a contrary standpoint, all those parvenu speculators crowding into gold. They will head for the exits and take their support with them just as quickly if gold cracks. A fast decline would shake out all these weak hands, and good enough for 'em. But gold's climb since last summer has been relentless, and wise men don't fight bull markets. Let your profits run and cut your losses short.

The SILVER PRICE, blessed silver, was the star performer this week, with a $1.02 rise on Monday. Looking back over the last year and some, rises like that, oddly enough, do not signal tops. They occur more often after bottoms and when the silver price is readying a big upmove. Little resistance stands between silver and the last (and all-time) high at $20.68. Above all is uncharted territory, as with the gold price. Anything can happen. Today the silver price closed $18.433, down 1.4 cents, not yet able to push through $18.50.

The end is NOT near for SILVER and GOLD PRICES. I told y'all earlier that this is a third leg up and should be a wild and woolly ride, and so far it has been. Much more upside over 5 or more years lies in store for silver and gold.

STOCKS are teetering above support at 10,120. If they break that line, then look out 9,700. Yesterday & today the Dow was stymied at 10,340. Friday of last week through Thursday the Dow traced out what appears to be an island top. (Technically there should be gaps up at either end of the island and they're not, but the appearance is nearly identical, so the same forces are probably at play.) Stay out of stocks. They have reached the 50% correction point and are now slowly turning over. A close over 10,440 would lead to a brief spike above that mark, maybe reaching 11,000, but you don't want to hang around for that. Once the decline starts the carnage will be appalling.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is trying to bottom, but not too convincingly. It has made a double bottom at 75/74.80 & has refused to fall through, although it has also refused to do more than trade sideways. Today was its best day this week with a 29 basis point climb to close at 75.579. Watch out for a sudden dollar rally. Everybody in the Cosmos is short dollars and expects the dollar to crash and some are even predicting a dollar collapse before year end. Rumours of the dollar's death are premature. Any dollar rally will punish the smart guys in the dollar carry trade who have borrowed cheap and (they hope) depreciating dollars to speculate in other, hotter markets. When dollar rallies they will be squeezed to death between the Scylla of a rising dollar and the Carybdis of sinking stocks and commodities.

A reader asked me what the "aftermarket" is. That's sort of an archaic phrase nowadays, but it means all the trading after the Comex close at 13:30 Eastern time. Since computerized trading opened up after Comex close, there's really unbroken trading throughout the day in the US, and then around the world. Silver and gold trade in 24 hour a day markets.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Once the Gold Price Clears $1,150, it Will Jump Again

Gold Price Close Today : 1141.40
Change: 0.70 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.447
Change: 0.40 cents or 0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1441.50
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 369.65
Change: 0.00 or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.87
Change: 0.037 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,332.44
Change: -93.87 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index: 75.28
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

Over the last five days the GOLD PRICE has left behind an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. Looks like $1123.55 - $1127 was resistance, then gold broke through that and jumped to $1,144, touched back to $1,27.70 to make sure, and yesterday whacked hard on $1,150's door. Today it bounced off $1,150 and retraced to $1,130, but closed on Comex at $1,141.40 (up 70 cents) but traded higher in the aftermarket to $1,145.30. Present blockade lies at $1,150. Once gold clears that, it will jump again, another $30 - $50.

Since September the SILVER PRICE has made a series of gains solidified and confirmed by successful reaction tests. It leapt from $13.50 in August to $17.60, successfully proved that gain in a reaction to $15.80. Then came another jump to $18.00, reaction and defense at $16.06, followed by a leap to $17.50, test of $17.00, and surge to $18.80 yesterday. Today it backed off to $18.13, but closed on Comex up 4 cents at $18.447. Right now its trading at $18.57.

Do y'all perceive a pattern?

Silver must close below $18.00 to threaten its uptrend. Very little resistance stands between here and the old high at $20.68. Short, shallow corrections may come at any time, but the Big Rally has by no means ended yet. Keep buying.

Over the past three days the US $ Index has made higher lows (slightly) but been blocked at highs of 75.60. That forms a rising flat-topped triangle. Generally, but not always by any means, that formation breaks out to the upside. Meanwhile the dollar is staging a lousy performance. Up a few basis points one day, down 30 or more the next, and never quite able to put distance between itself and dangerous support at 74.90. Must either break through 75.60 above or will fall clean through 74.90 and further. My money's on that latter outcome. Scrofulous dollar closed today at 75.284, up 10 basis points. Situation deteriorating but still undecided.

STOCKS have formed an island top in the last five days. Friday the Dow topped at 10,300, then Monday jumped clean to 10,360 - 10,440, traded there Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, then dropped to 10,300 today and rallied up to 10,350. Still looks like an island top to me, although technically an island top has gaps on either side. Stocks must now close above 10,450 to disprove a top in place. Any close below 10,200 leads speedily to 9,700. Get out of stocks. Get. Out. Now.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

If Silver and Gold Prices Can Pierce $18.50 and $1,140, They Will Run Much Further, Much Longer.

Gold Price Close Today : 1138.80
Change: 0.20 or 0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.377
Change: -1.3 cents or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1458.00
Change: 3.60 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 370.70
Change: -5.55 or -1.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.97
Change: 0.011 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,437.42
Change: 30.46 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index: 75.28
Change: 0.37 or 0.5%

The US DOLLAR INDEX flirted with suicide today at a 74.80 low, but a "miracle" intervened for the scrofulous dollar and it ended the day up 39.6 basis points at 75.306 -- saved for the nonce but not far from the line of fire. Since mid-
October the dollar hath thrice tested 75-74.80 support. I don't believe in "triple bottoms" because usually they are only preludes to a breakdown. To restore credibility
the Dollar Index needs to close above 76.80. We'll see.

The GOLD PRICE had declined overnight from yesterday's highs to $1,136.60. Driven all the way to $1,127.20 before New York opened, gold nevertheless rose steadily throughout the day. On Comex gold closed near its $1,141.84 high at $1,138.80, up 20 cents. Bad that it didn't close higher, but good, very good, that it declined, bounced off $1,127, and rose to close even with yesterday. And, lo, in the aftermarket it tradeth now at $1,140.50.

SILVER's chart resembles gold's. From a top yesterday above $18.40, silver traded overnight as low as $18.06. Yet the mighty white metal handily fought off the attack, defended 1800 cents, and rose steadily to close on Comex at $18.377, down 1.3c. Well, think on it. Silver rose 102 cents yesterday. Such huge gains don't come every day, an da rest is in order.

THE GREAT CONUNDRUM is whether silver and gold prices can rise further from these seemingly nosebleed heights. There's that wall of worry again. Y'all remember Kenny Rogers' song, "The Gambler"? "You gotta know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em." But how do you know?

Over the last 11 months both silver and gold have been trading with monotonous and unwonted regularity, up and down, up and down, about 105 days from Gold/Silver Ratio trough to trough. Never saw the like before, up and down at the same measured pace. About now when traders have been lulled into complacency, the market will switch and change the pace, lengthening or shortening the cycle, truncating or extending the move. This feels like fall 2007. Remember how both metals rose from August right through to March 2008? Nothing could stop them. Sure, both are overbought now, but they can always get more overbought still.

Gold's indicators are high, seeming to signal a top near. Silver's are not so high, and have room to rise higher. Both metals stand at a crossroads. If silver and gold can pierce $18.50 and $1,140, they will run much further, much longer. If not, then first a correction and then the run-up. Either way, $1,300 gold remains the technical target, and crazy silver is aiming at $23.00 to $33.00.

STOCKS fought fiercely to stay in positive territory today. Most of the day they traded at a loss, the Dow dropping as low as 10,362 and the S&P500 as low as 1,103. Much like silver and gold, stocks have between yesterday and today drawn a double top and must penetrate that ceiling (10,440) or fall back. Dow closed today up 30.46 at 10,437.42; S&P rose 1.02 to close 1,110.32. Nasdaq also rose, but other indices dropped marginally. Smells of confusion and indecision. Stay away from stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Silver Price Should Outperform the Gold Price Like a Show-Off - Buy the Break Out

Gold Price Close Today : 1,138.60
Gold Price Close 13 Nov: 1,095.10
Change: 43.50 or 4.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.39
Silver Price Close 13 Nov: 17.365
Change: 10.250 cents or 5.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,454.40
Platinum Price Close 13 Nov: 1,344.30
Change: 110.100 or 8.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 376.25
Palladium Price Close 13 Nov: 330.25
Change: 46.00 or 13.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.91
Gold Silver Ratio 13 Nov: 63.06
Change: -1.15 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,406.96
Dow Industrial 13 Nov: 10,023.42
Change: 383.540 or 3.8%

US Dollar Index: 74.911
US Dollar Index 13 Nov: 75.761
Change: -0.850 or -1.1%

Look at the changes for the week. Clearly, gold, silver, and stocks (?) are still rallying. Whatever damage to those rallies a dollar rally might do remain immaterial because the dollar refuses to rally yet.

Today was a big break out day for stocks and metals, and self-defense makes us ask whether they are joined at the hip. If they rise together will they fall together? For stocks I am sure of the answer (as sure as I ever get about such things), but not for silver and gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX closed today dead on top of its lower support, at 74.911, down 37.5 basis points from Friday. Resistance runs from 74.777 to 74.900. If the dollar breaks that line, it will fall clean to 74, then further. Maybe even revisit the old low at 71. Tomorrow will seal the dollar's fate, one way or t'other.

STOCKS at long last have reached the 50% correction of the Spring 2009 to Now rally, 10,375. In fact, the Dow closed above that mark at 10,406.96, up 136.49. From here you have to reckon the Dow as a dead man walking. It could spike as far as 11,000, but this is as good as it gets for stocks. S&P500 closed at 1,109.30, up 15.82 Mark well, my friends, that although stocks are making new rally highs in dollar terms, in gold and silver terms the bloom long ago left the rose. The Dow in Gold Dollars topped on 27 August at G$209.47 (10.133 oz), fell through support G$195-194, and today stands just above free-fall territory. Although the Dow rose to a new high today, the DiG$ closed G$188.94 (9.14 oz), down and nearly a new low. Point is, these two, stocks and gold, are NOT moving together but against each other.

My friend Bob The Technical Genius called today and recommended that I call up charts of the ETFs, SLV & GLD, for a clear view of what silver and gold prices are doing.





Very clearly you will see the breakaway gap on both charts today. Assuming that this is a breakaway gap rather than an exhaustion gap, which is hardly likely here, then gold and silver prices are signaling a fast, large run up. That offers another argument against metals stopping here.

The SILVER PRICE today finally crossed $18.00, and spectacularly. It rose $1.02 to close at $18.39 on Comex. That's a 5.9% rise in one day! Since silver has hung back back more than gold, from here (as it is later in the rally) silver should outperform gold like a show-off. Buy the break out.

The GOLD PRICE last week argued that it was very strong when it dropped to $1,106 then closed higher Friday at $1,116.10. That set gold up for today's surge of $22.50 to a Comex close at $1,138.60. I still expect this rally to reach $1,300 before it stops. However, my friend Bob, who is a world-class worrier when it comes to markets, is sweating bullets over the $1,140 point. Okay, recall nowr H.L. Hunt's wise words, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." Any time now silver and gold could undergo sharp corrections as they tread their path to gold at $1,300. However, I don't believe that will happen tomorrow, or until both metals put meaty gains under their belts.

How will you know I am wrong? A silver close below $18.00 or a gold close below $1,106 would sound alarm claxons. Be clear, though, about stocks. They can completed their 50% correction, and can collapse any day now. They are extremely overbought (gold and silver are not).

If you still have stocks, better call your broker in the morning and sell them.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Gold/Silver Ratio is Signalling Lower Silver and Gold Prices, but Not Much Lower

Gold Price Close Today : 1106.00
Change: -8.00 or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.255
Change: -27.2 cents or -1.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1352.10
Change: -24.00 or -1.7%1

Palladium Price Close Today: 348.45
Change: 2.50 or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.10
Change: 0.538 or 0.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,197.47
Change: -93.79 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index: 75.12
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

Oh, Silver, Silver! How you worry those who love you! The SILVER PRICE may be forming a head and shoulders top, or that could be merely a continuation pattern -- 'tisn't clear yet. 50 DMA lies at $17.01, 200 DMA at $14.50, both ever possible targets for a correction. Best outcome for silver tomorrow is to hold above $17.00.
A fall through $17.00 leads to a re-test of $16.70, or even $16.00. Momentum indicators do NOT look overbought.

The GOLD PRICE closed on Comex down $8.00 at $1,106.00. In the aftermarket it has traded down to $1,103.10.

What are y'all griping about? Did y'all think the Road to Glory for silver and gold prices would be paved smooth so your roller skates wouldn't bump? The Bull always tries to shake off as many riders as possible.

If the gold price is following the same "jump-run-in-place" pattern it's followed since September, it might retreat to the last jumping off point, $1,065. Right now it is trading roughly at the bottom of the range from which it surged to the upside yesterday, so that level might contain it. Momentum indicators show gold overbought, but not outrageously. That occurred several days ago, which throws up another red flag.

One last thought. The gold/silver ratio rose back to 64.10 today. Mmmmm. That might mean that a second and higher top than November second's (645.111) might follow, but not much higher. The ratio has done that before. If so, the ratio is signalling lower silver and gold prices, but not much lower.

Title of today's action might be "Revenge of the Dollar Nerd." Yes, hard as it is to credit, the scrofulous US Dollar Index actually rose today, 49 whole basis points to 75.652. Now it has traced out a potential double bottom at 74.90, but still must get through resistance at 76 -- by no means a foregone conclusion. If 'tis rallying, first target is the 50 day moving average at 76.26. Then more resistance lurks at 77. If it rallies the far target is 78. Oddly, the MACD & RSI momentum indicators don't really point to a rally, since they are hovering near the top of the range.

The dollar's rally (and several days' upmove) wounded Stocks today but not fatally -- at least, that's not proven yet. Some day soon stocks will indeed top, but not yet, I think. Look for one last push up into that 10,375 (50% correction mark).

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Listen to the Flashing Message: the Gold Price has Broken Out Through $1,000.00

Gold Price Close Today : 1114.00
Change: 12.10 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.527
Change: 31.5 cents or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1371.40
Change: 15.90 or 1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 344.75
Change: 11.60 or 3.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.56
Change: -0.460 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,284.91
Change: 37.94 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 75.12
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE keeps on repeating the same pattern: jump, run in place, jump. Thus today it jumped the $1,108 hurdle, ran to $1,118.60, and on Comex closed up $12.10 at $1,1114. Now in the aftermarket it's trading at $1,117.10. Listen to the flashing message: the gold price has broken out through $1,000.00 (one thousand dollars), and by measuring the upside down head and shoulders formed on gold's chat from March 2008 to July 2009, will rise $300 from breakout point. That means it will rise from $1,000 to $1,300.00.

The laggard SILVER PRICE lagged not today. On Comex it closed up 31.5cents at 17.527. Range today was $17.71 to $17.39. The silver price is probing, probing overhead resistance at 17.60. If it breaks through here, 'twill run straight for 18.00, then jump clean to 21.00 so fast it'll spin your head around like that little girl's in The Exorcist. Yes, the silver price cannot hang back too much longer, but it has been roughly keeping up with the gold price and now appears ready to rush ahead.

Ratio touched 64.019 yesterday, leaving behind a double top with 64.111 on 2 November. That's your second messenger whispering that silver is about to take off.

What about the US DOLLAR INDEX? Is it threatening silver and gold prices by strengthening? Not much. It's bumping along 75. Overnight it once again successfully resisted the market's attempt to drive it below 74.80, touching 74.774. But it climbed and stayed above 75.10 from 11 - 4 EST. Still, no real sign of turning and rallying, only failure to break down. Suspicious, may smell of a turn, but no turn yet. Only one term describes the US Dollar: scrofulous.

The Dow rose 83 points today to close at 10,285. S&P500 chugged right alongside, rising 5 to 1,098. Stocks are closing in on the moment of truth. Remember the Bear of the bear market always raises as many people's hopes as high as possible, to fill his lair before he mauls his victims. Stay clear of stocks. "Abandon hope, all ye who enter Wall Street."

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

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To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.