Friday, July 31, 2009

The Gold Price Will Rise Upward Towards US$980 Next Week

Gold Price Close Today : 953.70
Gold Price Close 24 July: 952.80
Change: 0.90 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.933
Silver Price Close 24 July: 13.87
Change: 6.30 cents or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,211.40
Platinum Price Close 24 July: 1,189.40
Change: 22.000 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today: 263.00
Palladium Price Close 24 July: 261.95
Change: 1.050 or 0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 68.45
Gold Silver Ratio 24 July: 68.70
Change: -0.25 or -0.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,171.61
Dow Industrial 24 July: 9,093.24
Change: -25.62 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index: 78.317
US Dollar Index 24 July: 78.813
Change: -0.496 or -0.6%

'Twas a strange week, a weird week.

The US DOLLAR rallied 100 basis points quite suddenly, sending gold & silver into a sharp correction. Today that all reversed.The US DOLLAR INDEX fell 100.1 basis points back to the very scraping bottom of its range, 78.317. Now this either confirms that 78.33 bottom on 2 June & 28 July, or, it will break thru that 78.33 level to drop another 200 bips, and maybe hit 76. Remember, when markets repeatedly test a resistance or support level, chances are they will break thru. More downside is most likely US Dollar course.

The last two weeks I have mentioned the Dow in Gold Dollars, watching to see if stocks could break out upside against gold. This week the DiG$ did climb to the 200 DMA & through it to a high of G$202.15 (9.779 oz), but has since fallen back. I don't think stocks are about to rally strongly against gold. Rather, they are at the top of their correction in terms of gold, but not necessarily in dollar terms. So even if stocks rally to 9,700 Dow, don't expect them to gain much against gold.

STOCKS, I suspect, are very strong right now, since the world is full of gnat-wits who have a four second attention span and believe that 200-year Depressions end after 10 months. Alas! The market is not kind, the market is not benevolent. In a bear market, money returns to its rightful owner. Don't be one of those who are fooled. Sell stocks into this rally. Put the proceeds into silver and gold, fast.

Weird week. After plunging as low as US$927.20 this week (Behold! Our 928 support level held!) the gold price actually closed this week 90 symbolic cents higher than last week.

Okay, to fall sharply, then recover all the lost ground plus a teents, is strong, but how strong? Clearly a large and well-walleted gold fan club sits waiting to take on all sellers at US$928. However, why didn't the gold price go all the way and close above US$955, which has been blocking it? Don't know, but that is the next logical step, a close over US$955, if gold is to continue this rally. Watch and mark what gold does on Monday. I am inclined to expect the gold price will rise upward towards US$980 next week.

For the week the silver price rose 6.3 cents, but as with the gold price, that doesn't tell the tale. The silver price crashed to 13.253 on 7/29, its second terrible day. Yet again, as with gold, what do you say of a market that drops like a rock, then comes right back to close higher. You say it is strong, then humbly put your hand over your mouth. You say that the weak holders were shaken out, and the strong holders are sitting under the market like trolls under a bridge, ready to gobble down any cheap silver that falls off.

Whoa! The metaphors just keep on coming! I am still watching the dollar over my shoulder, because it has by no means -- even with today's big drop -- put itself outside reach of rallying and thus striking a blow at silver and gold. But if the buck dawdles too long, gold will hit US$1,000 and earth-orbit escape velocity and 'twill be too late for the dollar.

Y'all keep on buying silver and gold. Buy on the dips. Buy in the teeth of your fears it will drop again below 900 and 13.00. Buy, and leave no room for fear. Even if big drops were to hit, both are still in bull markets and that rising tide will raise your boat and mercifully leave your timing mistakes beneath the waves.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.