Monday, August 31, 2009

The Gold Price was Driven Back to its Breakout Point Today

Gold Price Close Today : 951.70
Change: -5.30 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.875
Change: 9.1 cents or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,500.97
Change: -43.23 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index: 78.22
Change: -0.91 or -1.1%

The GOLD PRICE was driven back to its breakout point today. This could be a sign that Friday's breakout was only a fake-out, but more likely it is the standard "touchback to breakout" move that most markets make.

The SILVER PRICE makes me lean to that second interpretation, too, since it moved up 9.1 cents today to close at $14.875, hammering on the door of $15.00 resistance. Gold closed today down $5.30 to end at $951.70 on Comex.

On a two month chart the US DOLLAR INDEX has formed a narrow even-sided triangle. More recently (since 17 August) that triangle's nose has dropped sharply, leaving something more like a flat bottomed triangle. The range has narrowed to 78.50 - 79.95 today, and tomorrow will be 78.40 to 78.00, etc. This will not long continue. A close outside that triangle, above or below, will send the $ index sharply in that direction. A close above 79.50 confirms an upside breakout, a close below 77.50 a downside breakdown. Bias leans toward downside breakout.

STOCKS today lost a little ground. Dow slipped 43.23 to close at 9,500.97. S&P500 at 1,021.02 lost 7.91.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.