Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Strong Performance for Gold and Silver Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 952.40
Change: 0.70 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.985
Change: 8.7 cents or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,310.60
Change: -185.68 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index: 78.72
Change: 0.58 or 0.7%

This was one bewildering day.

First, the US DOLLAR INDEX broke out of the tight triangle it had traded into, upwards. At this point, though, you have to wonder if this isn't just another fake-out, to be followed tomorrow by another fall to 78. The dollar index rose as high as 78.94, but as I write has dropped to 78.724, up 57.6 points. Market was flat until 11, when it crossed above 78.4 and shot up. To confirm, dollar tomorrow must cross above its 50 day moving average at 79.15. At the very least, it must gain tomorrow, and meatily, not a basis point or two. Top boundary of the larger triangle (mid-July to now) lies about 79.40. A close above 79.40 would certainly mark an upside breakout into a dollar rally.

Second, since the dollar rallied, SILVER and GOLD PRICES
must have fallen, right? Nope. The GOLD PRICE closed up 70 cents to $952.40 at Comex close, but added another $4.30 in the aftermarket, and now stands at $956.70. The SILVER PRICE rose 8.7 cents on Comex to close at $14.985. After Comex closed it promptly climbed over $15.00, and now trades at $15.06. Strong performance for both, but better for silver. Gold must not lag tomorrow, but must keep grinding toward $961. If silver remains above $15.00, it ought to run higher.

But wait, wait! What about the dollar rallying? Well, what about it? Seems that today the dollar only hurt stocks. The Dow peeled off 185.68 points to close at 9,310.60. Worse, the weaker S&P500 fell 22.58 to close at 998.04, below psychologically important 1,000 mark. Further downside lies in store for stocks.

What bringeth the morrow? I haven't a clue, but don't expect the dollar to rally hand in hand with silver and gold prices. Somebody has to give way here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.