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Friday, February 27, 2009

Expect at Least Another Week of Downside in the Gold Price, But How Far Can it Fall?

Gold Price Close Today : $941.50
Gold Price Close 20th February: $1,001.80
Change: -60.30 or -6.0%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.085
Silver Price Close 20th February: $14.485
Change: -140.00 cents or -9.7%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.95
Gold Silver Ratio Close 20th February: 69.16
Change: 2.79 or 4.0%

Dow Industrial: 7,062.93
Dow Close 20th February: 7,365.67
Change: -302.740 or -4.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 88.097
US Dollar Close 20th February: 86.476
Change: 1.621 or 1.9%

Woe, woe, not a good week for silver and gold prices! Yet it might have
been worse. You might have owned stocks.

The gold price couldn't pierce the $1,003 March 2008 high, so
it has spent the last week correcting. Expect at least another week of downside in the Gold Price, but how far can it fall? Maybe to 927.30 and no further. That would be the mildest of corrections. Other likely targets are 920, 905, and 890.

The silver price has fallen below its 200 DMA again (now 13.31). 50 DMA stands at 11.99. More and more 12.30 is looking likely, although silver might stop at 12.80.

Every time you think stocks have finished their fall, they jump off another cliff. Dow lost 4.1% this week. Every couple of days I have to lower the scale on my graph. I keep on thinking that stocks will rally, but it keeps on not happening.

Some think (with some plausibility) that the gigantic inflation your Friendly Imperial Government has already put into the pipeline will raise stocks, as in the 1923 German hyperinflation. Trouble is, that was a rise without a profit -- big numerical increase, but no value increase.

Never mind all that speculation, if the Dow falls through 7,000 next week (hit a low of 7,033 today), we might see a real panic that wouldn't stop until stocks hit, say, 6250. Mercy! Why doesn't the government DO something? Why? Why? Well, Louise, because the government CAN'T do anything, except mess things up worse than they already are. But wait, sweetheart, just wait -- they are certain to do that.

US DOLLAR INDEX -- Will it cross 88 and keep on flying? That's possible, and wouldn't be positive for silver and gold prices. Dollar is probably strengthening now because the financial-drunks are all awakening to the wet cardboard structure of the euro and wondering how it can possibly survive. Euro's so bad it makes even the US Dollar look good!

The GOLD SILVER ratio will probably rise to 74.25 or 75. If gold fell all the way to 890, silver still wouldn't drop below 11.87. If the ratio rose to its previous 84 high, then silver would fall to 1050. I do not expect a correction that severe. Rather, probably early next week silver and gold will have posted their lows.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS made a new low this week at G$147.87 (7.153 oz on 23 Feb.). It had formed a falling wedge on the chart, which usually foretells an Upside move coming, but it didn't. Fell out of the wedge to the downside. Whooo, sick! But watch for an early warning sign of a stock rally, namely, the DiG$ turning up.

For 40 years or so I have been studying monetary science and watching the economy. In all that time "collapses" and "panics" seemed only possibilities. But the recent crisis has cut deep enough to reveal the rottenness in the financial system's bones. I hope y'all are taking seriously what has happened, and with all urgency are ordering your affairs. If you're in a losing position -- underwater in a mortgage, sunk in debt -- take your losses now. Later you may not be able to get out.

Best thing to come out of this horrible mess is that we may get rid of the banks. Sure, everybody keeps mouthing the mantra, "We must save the banks!" Let me mouth another: "Let the banks die, the sooner, the better. Let's get rid of the banks, and the corporations, and build a just and sensible economy, with a reverent thrift toward the world."

Save the banks? Right, pick up that poor cold, wounded rattlesnake and warm him up in your bosom, right under your tee shirt. Then once he warms up, just watch how grateful he'll be. If all the banks had one head, and I had a hoe, guess what I'd do?

And here's a statement from an Expert that only needed time to come true: "Branch banking . . . will mean, I suggest in all humility, the beginning of the end of the capitalist system." -- John T. Flynn, April 1933

Y'all have a great weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, February 26, 2009

The Gold Price Closed Down $23.90 at $941.80

Gold Price Close Today : $941.80
Change: -23.90 or -2.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 12.95
Change: -92.5 cents

Gold Silver Ratio: 72.73
Change: 3.13 or 4.5%

Dow Industrial: 7,182.08
Change: -88.81 or -1.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.81
Change: -0.08 or -0.1%

The Gold/Silver Ratio jumped today to 72.73, up 4.5%, which tells you all you need to know about silver and gold prices today. Ratio fell because the silver price is more volatile -- and that means weaker in a correction -- than gold, so it drops further, faster and makes the ratio climb. By now y'all ought to be used to how these corrections unfold, slowly and grudgingly at first, then falling in great gulps for a few days, then grudging again, and a bottom.

Yet the aftermarket took a remarkable turn -- up. The Gold Price closed down 23.90 at 941.80, but the aftermarket traded up over $5.00. The Silver Price lost an aching 92.5 cents to close at 12.95, but in the aftermarket it traded up to 13.20. What meaneth the contradiction? Looks like strength underneath both to me, people who want to buy coming out to gobble up supply at lower prices. Very good.

I still have no firm opinion on which downside target is the most likely, but gold could fall as low as $890, although $920 and $905 could stop it, too. The Silver Price is looking at $12.25 or $11.80. Of course, I could be overestimating the correction's depth as well. Talked to a friend today who said he looked for weakness in metals until the fall. That I cannot see because I don't think silver and gold have made their spring high yet. If I'm right, this will be a short and shallow correction. If it stretches out more than four weeks, I might be wrong.

US DOLLAR INDEX still cannot push thru 88. A break above that point would bring longer dollar strength.

Barnum said nobody ever went broke over-estimating the gullibility of the American public. To that proverb we ought to add, nobody ever made money following the American financial press. In my nearly 62 years I've read a lot of stupid stuff (started reading when I was 4) but today's article about Gold CNNMoney.com, taken from Money Magazine, probably took the cake. It was as full of lies, half-truths, and bland ignorance as a Christmas turkey is of -- awww, never mind. This "senior writer" wrote that the inflation rate in 2008 was just 0.1%. Now here is stupidity compounded, for the "inflation rate" is confused with the "rate of price rise", and worse yet, accepts US government statistics as true. Since inflation is in fact "increasing the money supply", and since the government has done that to the tune of some $8 trillion in bailouts, I'd say the true inflation rates, is, well, somewhere north of 0.1%.

Here's another reason the article gives for not buying gold. It's only trading above $900 an ounce, not even near it's inflation-adjusted 1980 gold price of over $2000 an ounce. Right, hon, that's the reason not to BUY it, because after a 20 year bear market it hasn't even approached its last bull market high yet. And what is the "safer way to hedge against inflation"? Why, buy US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Right, sounds like a good idea to me: trust your money to the US government.

Is it any wonder we're suffering a nationwide financial crisis, when poltroonry like this is passed off as financial advice?

One might let one's mind run wild chewing on what stocks have done lately and spring on the idea that the Dow had made a V-bottom. Well, it dropped to the V, but can't seem to climb out of it. 'Tain't normally how V-bottoms work. Normally the market climbs right back out of the V. Nope, I'd say stocks are just as likely to drop as to rise from here. Where are those Nice Government Men when you need them?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices are Presenting Y'all With a Rare Buying Opportunity - Watch, and Don't Miss It

Gold Price Close Today : $965.70
Change: -3.40 or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.875
Change: -12 cents or -0.9%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.60
Change: 0.354 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial: 7,270.89
Change: -80.05 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.78
Change: 0.95 or 1.1%

Silver and gold prices continued correcting today. The Gold Price dropped 3.40 to close at US$965.70 at the Comex close (12:30 Central time), but dropped US$15 in the aftermarket, on no news that I saw. Gold must reckon here with a correction to US$925 - US$890. I expect this weakness will pass quickly, say, two or three weeks at most.

The Silver Price dropped only 12 cents today to $13.8750, but shaved off another 23.5 cents in the aftermarket to $13.64. The same normal, natural correction has hit both metals. Silver has strong support at 13.50,13.20,12.80,12.50, 12.00 and 11.00.

Silver and Gold Prices are presenting y'all with a rare buying opportunity. Watch, and don't miss it.

The Gold/Silver Ratio should rise to 72, maybe as high as 74 again. If it hits 74, swap more gold for silver.

US DOLLAR INDEX rose 95 basis points today, but this volatility resembles the flipping of a big bass after you net him and throw him in the bottom of the boat. It's a grand show, but he ain't going nowhere.

STOCKS dropped 200 points today, but came back (perhaps thanks to the Nice Government men) to down merely 80.05. Banks' status is poisoning the entire market. Poisoning. There is only one solution for America and the world: the banks must be destroyed, and silver an gold money re-established. Everything else is merely installing new carpet on the Graf Zeppelin.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, February 24, 2009

GOLD PRICE has Earned a Short Break, and Began to Take it Today, Falling $25.50 to $969.10.

Gold Price Close Today : $969.10
Change: -25.50 or -2.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.995
Change: -45.5 cents or -3.1%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.25
Change: 0.416 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 7,350.30
Change: 235.52 or 3.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 86.77
Change: -0.49 or -0.6%

GOLD PRICE has earned a short break, a breather, and began to take it today, falling 25.50 to US $969.10. I don't expect any gold price correction to last long, maybe a couple of weeks, and it ought to be contained by $925, although gold could drop to $890 without damaging the uptrend.

SILVER PRICE dropped 45.50 to $13.995. Mmmm. . . Still holding on to that support at $14.00. A correction in silver might drop to $12.25. As with gold, expect any correction to run its course in 2 - 3 weeks.

Yesterday the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) fell to a new low, G$148.52 (7.185 oz). Since yesterday's Dow low did not exceed the Oct. 2002 low by 3%, we can't say yet that the Dow has "broken down," but it rests under a cloud of suspicion & need to prove itself innocent. More likely, yesterday was a spike low that will mark the beginning of a 2-4 month rally, since other indicators show a bullish divergence. Any close below yesterday's 7,114.78 knock that theory in the head, dead.

Today all stock indices recovered enthusiastically; Dow rose 235, S&P 500 rose nearly 30. If you still own stocks (whether directly or thru an IRA or 401(k), or the like) watch the Dow like a hawk to sell them all when it reaches 9,500 or so.

The US Dollar Index fell another 49 basis points today, offering further proof that its rally to 88 was a double top. Mark that both the dollar & gold sank today -- uhh, uhh, what's that supposed to mean? Merely that you can't expect them to move in lock step. Reckon some of the fear dissipated today.

I understand that The Obama will make a speech tonight to explain how he will spend truckloads of new money "fixing" health care (a sobering thought) and promoting alternative energy AND will balance the budget by 2010. Day after day I wonder what planet I'm on. Is there anybody in America stupid enough to believe the government can both spend huge amounts, accruing huge new debt, and yet balance the budget? This is like reading pornography to cultivate purity of soul.

Here's something else, dear friends, but don't tell anybody I said this or they'll hang me for a communist: We do NOT need to save the banks. The banks are the problem. We need to abolish the parasitic banks, abolish fractional reserve & the "Federal" Reserve. "Saving" the banks is like "rescuing" the Tapeworm that is devouring your life.

Sorry I missed sending out a commentary Monday, but I had to take Susan to the doctor up in Nashville, and that's an all day trip. The word has gone out that her insurance is paying & those doctors are making a good living off of her. She's doing very well, except her heart rhythm is, well, sort of backward ("junctional"). She looks good & has more energy than a hummingbird.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, February 20, 2009

The Gold Price Closed Today at $1,001.80

Gold Price Close Today : $1,001.80
Gold Price Close 3rd February: 941.50
Change: 60.30 or 6.4%

Silver Price Close Today : $14.485
Silver Price Close 3rd February: 13.62
Change: 86.50 cents or 6.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.16
Gold Silver Ratio Close 3rd February: 69.13
Change: 0.03 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 7,365.67
Dow Close 3rd February: 7,850.41
Change: -484.740 or -6.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 86.476
US Dollar Close 3rd February: 86.009
Change: 0.467 or 0.5%

For the week, silver and gold prices rose exactly the same percentage. The Gold Price closed today at US$1,001.80, bare pennies below last March's all-time high at US$1,003.20. Not to be outdone, the silver price rose 86.5 cents to close the week at $14.485.

Both metals continue to hang on a razor's edge. The silver price now has reached last year's high, after breaking through the July 2008 high. Will it keep rising through the March 2008 high, or take a breather here? Seasonal pattern says the gold price should rise further, and worldwide fear is pushing gold higher. If the gold price does close higher on Monday or Tuesday, then it will leap for 1,140, then 1,250 or some even crazier-sounding number. Even if it backs up here before attacking US$1,003 again, it shouldn't drop lower than 920, maybe 880.

Silver is tagging right along with gold, after setting the pace and running ahead for several weeks. It has now smashed through my $14.00 target, so from here $16.00 or higher is possible.

Sooner or later, you have to follow your mind and buy the breakout. The breakout is the close above 977.70. Yes, that makes me nervous, even jittery, but you have to buy the breakout. Silver and gold both.

Today's numbers on the US dollar don't tell the week's whole story. The US DOLLAR INDEX traded up to 88 this week, the last high, but today collapsed 109.7 basis points. Somebody is dumping dollars -- maybe the world. Better get out of dollars and into silver and gold before the dollar sinks to its intrinsic value: zero.

STOCKS broke support at 7550 and last fall's low and are now sinking toward the 10/2002 low at 7,286.27. Better hope they stop there, otherwise they might reach 6,250 or 6,000. Sooner or later stocks have to rally -- don't they?

H.L. Hunt, the great oil man, said, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." Sure, all you silver and gold investors feel great today, but temper that with the thought of the millions now being dispossessed by a wicked Tapeworm, and deceived by academe, media, and politicians.

In 1965 Lyndon "Landslide" Johnson said, "So here is the Great society. It's the time -- and it's going to be soon -- when nobody in this country is poor." To which I can only add, not if the banks, Democrats, and Republicans have anything to say about it.

On this day in 1839 duelling was prohibited in the District of Columbia by act of Congress. Maybe we ought to bring it back, especially for members of Congress.

One last item which, besides the sky and sun in Tennessee, proves the entire world isn't yet looney. A new Democratic congressman from Idaho voted against the Stimulus bill. When asked why, he explained that every job it generated would cost $250,000. Smart fellow. I wonder if he's from Tennessee originally.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, February 19, 2009

This Back-Away Will Last a Day or Two, then the Gold Price Will Attack $977.70 Again

Gold Price Close Today : $976.10
Change: -1.6 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.933
Change: -35.5 cents or -2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.06
Change: 1.629 or 2.4%

Dow Industrial: 7,465.95
Change: -89.68 or -1.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.57
Change: -0.48 or -0.5%

This morning I thought that I had somehow slipped into another dimension, maybe into a Salvador Dali painting. I was listening to National Proletarian Radio about the Next Step of our salvation, the Obama O'mortgage Obailout. O my. If obtuseness every reared up and assumed a body, it would be this plan. Everybody burbles about the need to "stabilize" real estate markets. No, to make them recover as quickly as possible, everyone needs to stand aside and let prices fall as fast and far as possible, until housing becomes attractively priced again. And maintaining people in mortgages they can't pay? What loony bin comes up with these plans?

Believe me, the gold and silver investor's secret weapon and chief ally is the US government and the Obamaite administration.

Well, I knew this day would come: today, everything in the world went down. Yep, stocks, silver, gold, the dollar, every blooming thing except the yen and euro and oil.

Stocks broke down clean thru 7,500 today. They are headed for 7,250 or 6,250. Most likely decline will unfold sharply next few days, and at last we'll see that bottom, but much lower than everyone expected.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES still haven't made up their minds, although they slacked off today. Gold gave up only 1.60 to $976.10 but silver lost 35.5 cents to end up beneath 14.00 at 13.933. This back-away will last a day or two, then the gold price will attack 977.70 again. We'll know then whether we're in for another correction, or the rally will continue.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, February 17, 2009

If the Gold Price Does Clear $1,003, Last March's High, Then It Won't Stop Until it Reaches $1,200

Gold Price Close Today : $967.00
Change: 25.50 or 2.7%

Silver Price Close Today : $14.008
Change: 38.8 cents or 2.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.03
Change: -0.094 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial: 7,569.81
Change: -280.60 or -3.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.60
Change: 0.22 or 0.2%

Now, O Mighty Ones In Washington, answer me this riddle: Today the US DOLLAR INDEX broke out of its downtrend, indeed, gapped up, reaching for 88, yet -- Speak to me, O Mighty Ones, leave me not unanswered -- GOLD and SILVER rose, well, mightily, the gold price up 25.50 to US$967.00 and the silver price up 38.8 cents to $14.008.

If I may speak, O Mighty Ones, altho I am lower than dust compared to y'all, I would hazard that FEAR is moving both stocks and the dollar and silver and gold. For lo, stocks flopped, too. Destroy me not, O Mighty Ones, for impudence, but I would also hazard that your nostrums -- sorry, make that "cures" -- are not working, won't work, and the public is catching on.

Stocks hurt badly today. They fell around the globe, anticipating fun in New York, then the Dow fell 280.60 to 7,569.81. That's the lowest close since 20 November, when it hit 7,552.45. S&P500 sank beneath 800 today, very bad juju. Here are the targets to watch: last November's low at 7,552.45; The Oct. 2002 Low at 7,286.27. The half-way mark of the rise form 1982 to 2000, namely, 6,249.95, and the half-way mark of the rise from 1982 to October 2007 at 7,470.73. Unless the Dow turns around fast, much lower prices will follow. Expect them. Do I still expect that rally rebounding from last fall's carnage? Yes, but it's looking to be punier all the time.

The Dow in Gold Dollars fell to a new low for the move today, G$161.57 (7.816 oz.), down from its 8/1999 high at nearly 45 ounces. Dow in Silver today fell to a new low, 539.74 oz. DiG$ is headed for G$G$41.344 (2 oz) or less and Dow in Silver for 36 oz or less.

I don't know. I just don't know. Silver has now reached my $14 target, and gold has burst through 920-940 resistance to knock on the door of the July US$977.70 closing high. They're both overbought, and have risen from $8.80 and US$705 last November. Ought to be time for a rest, but fear can send them skittering higher yet. If the gold price does clear $1,003, last March's high, then it won't stop until it reaches US$1,200. Will the rally extend? Y'all tell me. It's hard to read markets as maniac and terrified as these are.

Comrade Obama has, it seems, surrounded himself with some extremely intelligent dumb people, or extremely dumb smart people, most drawn from Wall Street. Now they fly their true colors, the Red of Socialism. Once might almost suspect they intend to destroy the US and its economy, from the policies they are following. Then again, maybe they're just stupid. After all, that's the simplest answer, and that's what Occam's Razor recommends we choose.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, February 13, 2009

Gold and Silver Prices Are in a Precarious Place

Gold Price Close Today : $941.50
Gold Price Close 5th of Feb: $913.60
Change: 27.90 or 3.1%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.62
Silver Price Close 5th of Feb: $12.745
Change: 87.50 cents or 6.9%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.13
Gold Silver Ratio 5th of Feb: 71.68
Change: -2.56 or -3.6%

Dow Industrial: 7,850.41
Dow 5th of Feb: 8,063.07
Change: -212.660 or -2.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 86.009
US Dollar 5th of Feb: 86.024
Change: -0.015 or 0.0%

And the big winner for the week is --- platinum, up 8.9%! Week's big loser is -- the Dow in Silver ounces, down 8.9%!

Watching stocks and the Dow reminds me of watching one of those old silent movies, where the heroine is always being tied to the tracks in front of an on-coming locomotive, or hanging by an unravelling rope off a cliff -- always about to perish, but not quite yet.

The US DOLLAR INDEX managed to stay flat this week, which, if you are a planarian worm, is success.

GOLD and SILVER PRICES are in a precarious place. Wide assumption is that once the Obailout is signed, silver and gold will drop. Maybe, but let us ponder.

First, the 5-day charts seem to show for gold, silver, and platinum a completed move up, with the beginnings of a correction. However, silver and gold are out of synch, with silver a bit ahead of gold. We must face the possibility that if gold clears $950 and silver $14.00, they MAY run wild, sending the gold price above US$1,000 and silver price over $16.00(guessing that the Gold/Silver Ratio drops to 62 before correcting).

Second, since 2 January the silver price has run from $11.25 to $13.62, up $2.37 or 21% in six weeks. From its low last 13 November at $8.80 until today's 13.62, silver has risen $4.82 or 55%. Whew. Modesty forbids my comparing silver's performance to stocks or the US Dollar, & the like.

Meanwhile, since 2 January gold has climbed 62.70 from 878.80 to 941.50, up 7%. Since the 13 November low at 704.90, gold has gained 236.60 or 34%. Stocks, since January 2 have fallen from 9034.64 to 7850.41, down 1184.23 or 13%. Since November the Dow has fallen from 8835.25 to 7850.41, down 984.84 or 11.1% So silver and gold prices have advanced enough to complete a leg, and some indicators are looking overbought, but no Cosmic Law says they can't get more overbought still.

Next week if you see gold fall back from 950, then wait for it to settle around 930 - 906 before you buy, say, 2 - 5 days. But if gold closes above 977.70, stop waiting and buy silver and gold with both hands. And wouldn't you know it, Monday is a US holiday, but not in the rest of the world, so we'll only get a shot at it after everybody else.

Catherine Austin Fitts last night showed me a breakdown of where the Obailout money is going. It's a joke. The Nice Government Men and Obamaites have not a clue where they are going. They're like ushers standing in front of the crowd after somebody has yelled "Fire!" in a theater that really is burning.

Now, more from the experts from the Last Great Depression: "Gentlemen, you have come 60 days too late. The depression is over." Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to speed the recovery, June 1930.

Happy Valentine's day.

Y'all have a great weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, February 12, 2009

Gold Price Broke Through and Above the Down Trend Line From the March 2008 High

Gold Price Close Today : $948.50
Change: 4.70 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.505
Change: -10 cents or -0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.23
Change: 0.400 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 7,892.22
Change: -47.31 or -0.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 86.27
Change: 0.40 or 0.5%

Man! This Obailout is working like a, like a, like a New Deal! Dow today dropped 47.3 to close at 7,892.22, but made a low today at 7,693.98. That's spitting distance of the 20 November 2008 low at 7,552.45. If the Dow breaks that line, not even an Obailout can help it. Say, Nice Government Men, what's that on your forehead?

The US DOLLAR today rose 40 basis points to close at 86.27, but that doesn't do a bit of good. Trend's still down.

The GOLD PRICE rose US$4.70 to US$948.50, an din the aftermarket traded above 950. But what's crucial here is that today the gold price broke through -- above -- the down-trend line from the March 2008 high. It broke out of the downtrend. Tomorrow it needs to improve that gain, but from here it looks like gold will take off. I'm flinching, waiting for the attack from the NGM, but gold is terribly strong.

The SILVER PRICE today fell one cent to close at $13.505. That I didn't like. Double closes (yesterday's was $13.515) often occur at trend changes. Yet today also the silver price pierced its 200 day moving average for the first time since August 6. As with gold, if silver can improve its gains tomorrow, and scare the last of the shorts out of the market on a Friday, we could see $14.00 tomorrow or Monday. $13.50 also marks the rim of the saucer bottom silver has been tracing out, and that rim is where breakouts occur.

By the way, one amazing thing appeared in Gauleiter Geithner's press statement. He admitted that the central banks had cause the present crisis, not, as I would say, because it is their nature, but well, you know, they were just drinking too many martinis and weren't watching what all those dirty speculators were doing. One is tempted to remark, "Hell is full and the damned -- or at least the idiotic -- are walking the earth." These are not serious people.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Look For Silver and Gold Prices to Climb More, But Beware a Correction

Gold Price Close Today : $943.80
Change: 30.10 or 3.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.515
Change: 39 cents or 3.0%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.83
Change: 0.218 or 0.3%

Dow Industrial: 7,939.53
Change: 50.65 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.80
Change: 0.22 or 0.3%


Breaking through that clot of resistance at 920 - 930, the GOLD PRICE burst ahead US$30.10 to close at US$943.80. Only 8 days in July did the gold price close higher than today. Close to beat is $977.70 of 15 July 2008. At 30 bucks a day, the gold price will reach that, uhh, tomorrow. Either we are seeing a wild breakout here, or a short term top. How will we know? The gold price won't close over 977.70. Once it does, it will never look back.

The SILVER PRICE reached its 200 day moving average today, which might be a good place to stop, or it might be a place to leap ahead. Even if the silver price is making an intermediate top here, I'll bet there's another 50 cents in it, to $14.00 anyway.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO should drop at least to the 200 DMA at 66:1. A drop through that level would start a waterfall.

Look for silver and gold prices to climb more, but beware a correction. Platinum has climbed above US$1,000 again, and Krugerrands and American Eagles now cost more than $1000 at retail. Whew!

Y'all know that the Fed and the government have only two weapons: inflation and blarney. Having nearly melted down the barrel of the inflation cannon lately, yesterday they charged up the blarney cannon, and fired off a colossal blast. By that I mean, new Treasury Secretary Geithner (why does his name remind me of the Nazi Party official, Gauleiter?) gave a speech about how the government and Fed will save us all, curing even athlete's foot and bad breath.

I'm not going to ridicule Gauleiter Geithner's entire speech in detail, tempting as that may be. Rather, I will focus on the (har-de-har-har) "Financial Stability Trust", which will buy up the rotten assets from the banks and hope to find some way, some day, to work out of them. This is merely a re-tread of the Resolution Trust Corporation used during the Savings and Loan crisis to shuck the banks' losses off on the taxpayers. Geithner assures us that this will need only $500 billion, but assuming the same more than 10 to 1 expansion of the RTC, let us go out on a limb and guess that this thing will grow to a minimum $5 trillion. Boom! Boom! Boom! Thus speaketh the blarney cannon (but it never hurt anybody,except those who believe it.) As my friend Catherine Austin Fitts observes, "These are not serious people."

The markets hath spoken, and they had no lofty opinion of the Obailout. Stocks recovered barely today, Dow up 65, but they remain suspended over the volcanic caldera by a fingernail.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rose today 22 basis points to 85.80, but that changeth nothing. Remains in a downtrend.

Two more lambs arrived this morning. We have two other LaMancha milch goats who look like they've been eating watermelons. They should kid at any time.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Gold Price Has a 70% Chance of Breaking Thru $980 On This Run

Gold Price Close Today : $913.70
Change: 21.30 or 2.4%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.125
Change: 30 cents or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.62
Change: 0.032 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 7,888.88
Change: -381.99 or -4.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.63
Change: 0.77 or 0.9%

Clearly, nobody in Washington can read history or follow a chart or scan markets. Today they passed the "we'll-all-die-of-starvation-and-poverty-without-it" bailout bill. The stock market dropped 381 points, which is pushing up toward one of the biggest drops we've seen in the last 12 months. And just to show you that Salvador Dali & the Surrealists are writing the script for the world today, the US DOLLAR index, which stands to lose most by the bailout rose 76 basis points. Were I an Washington Obama-apparatchik, I would spend tonight staring up at the ceiling, sweating bullets and blood. There's a monster loose out there, and he's threatening to gobble up the whole world.

But we misfits, we happy few who sold stocks and shunned mortgages while the enthusiasts were running wild, are humbly encouraged today (humbly, because we know that tomorrow markets may swing round and slit our throats) because gold rose 21.30 to 913.70, silver rose 30 cents to 13.135, and the gold/silver ratio dropped below 70:1 to close at 69.62. Gold is pounding on the doors of its September/October highs, while silver (as I expected) has met little or no resistance in its leap from 11.80 toward 14.00.

Only fly in the ointments is that the metals' RSIs and MACDs are beginning to look overbought, but they can get more overbought still. If gold clears this 920-940 area, then pierces $980, nothing will stop its reaching $1200. On the other hand, if gold fails here, it would suffer a 1 - 3 month correction. I'd say it has an 70% chance of breaking thru $980 on this run.

The DOW stands at the lower limit. Either it catches here at once or it will sink through the last 7,580 low and continue to 6,000. Nice Government Men have their jobs cut out for them tomorrow, re-floating the stock market.

By the way, this pattern in gold trading smells heavily of mackeral, especially in view of silver's strength. Gold gets slapped down $20 bucks, closes very low, then in the aftermarket pops right back up, and follows thru next day with more gains. There are very resilient buyers beneath this market, and a very large seller around 920-930. Guess who the seller is (wink! Wink!).

Here's one last thought: Platinum rose 41 bucks today, and palladium rose 3 bucks to close at 1,036.10 and 212.40 -- over 1,000 and 200. Folks are running for cover, and they're looking for a metal roof.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, February 05, 2009

Sharp Sudden Rises Are Possible in Silver and Gold Prices Next Week

Gold Price Close Today : $913.60
Gold Price Close 29th Jan: $905.10
Change: 8.50 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.745
Silver Price Close 29th Jan: $12.14
Change: 60.50 cents or 5.0%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.68
Gold Silver Ratio 29th Jan: 74.56
Change: -2.87 or -3.9%

Dow Industrial: 8,063.07
Dow 29th Jan: 8,149.80
Change: -86.730 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 86.024
US Dollar Index 29th Jan: 85.294
Change: 0.730 or 0.9%

I will be out of town tomorrow, so am sending y'all the weekly report today.

The US DOLLAR INDEX has made one, two, three tops since 22 January. Yes, it remains above its 50 day moving average (DMA)but keeps grinding downward. A close below 83.89 will send the fall into high gear. I am no longer looking for dollar's rally to reach 88.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO has broken 72 -- good, good, O, very good! Ratio should drop quickly toward the 200 DMA at 65.62. That implies that silver is about to leap, and leap much further and faster than gold. Fasten your seatbelts.

Look at SILVER'S huge 60 cent gain this week, 5%. Silver has targeted its 200 DA at 13.54 at a minimum, but more likely it will scream through 14.00 or higher before it runs out of gas. Next week should see big doings in silver.

GOLD is now knocking on the door of 920 - 940 resistance. Tomorrow or next week will break through and challenge the July high at 980. This can unfold very fast. Once Gold pierces 980, it will begin a run for US$1,200. Expect a big party in gold next week, so wear your party hat.

I suspect both gold and silver are entering the last leg of this particular move. Sharp sudden rises are possible in silver and gold prices next week, but a rest ought to follow after that. Looks like we've seen the last of silver below 1200 and gold below 900.

On this day in 1937 Pres. Franklin Roosevelt tried to pack the US Supreme court with pliable judges who would allow his radical fascist takeover of the economy by the federal government. He proposed to simply increase the number of Supreme Court justices. If Roosevelt had been pushing harder and harder to see when the country would finally say NO! he found that point with his packing scheme.

Y'all have a great weekend.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, February 04, 2009

The Gold Price is Not Advancing Without Oppostion, But Steadily Advancing and Recovering

Gold Price Close Today : $901.60
Change: 9.60 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.465
Change: 17 cents or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 72.33
Change: -0.219 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial: 7,956.66
Change: -121.70 or -1.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.69
Change: 0.68 or 0.8%

One really big goal stands before my eyes: gold piercing $920-940. A failure at that level-- I'm not talking about these "Take two steps back and try again" moves but a drop below $850 -- would condemn gold and silver to a very long recuperation. However, right now gold could drop as low as $850 without damaging the uptrend at all.

Not that I'm worried about gold failing to break through 920-940, but my mind flies around out there looking for things that might go wrong, the worst case. In fact, gold is chugging along exactly as I might wish, not advancing without opposition, but steadily advancing and recovering. By the way, that little 1st half of a key reversal yesterday was followed by the 2nd half, a higher close today. Gold is going higher, & tomorrow.

The silver prive has remained stronger than gold, but needs now to break clean thru 12.50 and moveahead to $14.00. Don't see a problem here.

US DOLLAR INDEX, after fainting yesterday, came back 68 basis points today. Yet it advanceth not. Looks like the rally was only a correction, and won't reach 88. But I keep on watching.

STOCKS, buoyed up by all the good news, fell back to the 7950 level again today. That's become the new line in the sand. If stocks close below that, kiss 'em good-buy, & quick!

I think cars entering Washington must be searched for history books. As colossally stupid as it sounds, the Obama stimulus plan includes provisions forbidding importation of iron and steel. Seems nobody in DC knows that the Great Depression became great and global only by passing the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act which ignited an international trade war. Wonder what those Chinese will say? Maybe they'll say "Okay, we can't sell them steel, then we don't need to buy their sorry bonds, either" -- however you'd say that in Mandarin.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Tomorrow the Gold Price Will Gain - Smashing That 920-940 Barrier

Gold Price Close Today : $892.00
Change: -14.70 or -1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.295
Change: -15 cents or -1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio: 72.55
Change: -0.307 or -0.4%

Dow Industrial: 8,078.36
Change: 141.53 or 1.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 84.88
Change: -1.27 or -1.5%

Y'all smell fish? Really ripe fish? Six, maybe eight days old? Yeah, right in the middle of the gold market.

Mayhap I can explain. Gold closed yesterday at US$906.70. Opened today at 900.94, made a high at 912.70, then plummeted to 888.60, and closed at 892, down 14.70. So far so good, until you look at the aftermarket, where it's trading at 902.90, up over ten bucks.

Now, it just doesn't normally work that way. So two interpretations are possible. First, the Nice Government Men were concerned that gold might break through 920 - 940 and lift off toward US$1,200, thus announcing to the world that the US dollar is, to put it with political correctness, value - challenged. Hence, they trashed gold by selling futures when it was weak (trying to push through 930).

Second, the gold market is merely showing the volatility that currently infects every market. Today's recovery (looking like the first half of a key reversal) in the aftermarket demonstrates how much strength undergirds gold, ready to buy big lots whenever it dips. Either way, my guess is that tomorrow the gold price will gain. I think smashing that 920-940 barrier is all but a foregone conclusion.

The silver price keeps buttressing that conclusion by refusing to dip below 12.00. Today's low was 12.14, with a close at 12.295, down 15 cents. I can't see this as weak.

The Dollar Index dropped a massive 126 basis points today. Why? Who knows? It's a market on meth, or a market on downers. No sense. And the bad news just keeps on coming for stocks! Ford sales down 42%, Toyota down 32%, even Disney net income was down 32% last quarter. Mercy, if Mickey Mouse can't make money worming quarters out of kids, who on earth can? It's an economic catastrophe for sure. Stocks rallied 141.53 today for a Dow close at 8,078.36. Dow Theory folks are now quibbling among themselves whether last week's and this week's new lows in the Transports and Industrials constitute a new Dow sell signal, on top of the one last fall. Lo, a sign of the times, and not a good one. I hope y'all have already sold your stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, February 02, 2009

Gold Price Might Need More Than One Try to Pierce the US$920 - US$940 Resistance level

Gold Price Close Today : $906.70
Change: -20.60 or -2.2%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.410
Change: -15 cents or -1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio: 73.06
Change: -0.768 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial: 7,936.83
Change: -64.30 or -0.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 86.38
Change: -0.09 or -0.1%

Recall that last week I warned that the gold price might need more than one try ot pierce the US$920 - US$940 resistance level. So it was no surprise today that gold dropped 20.60 to close at US$906.70. Whoa! Don't run strangle yourself yet. That hangs gold just at the resistance level it first ran to when it broke thru US$850.

Last week it ratcheted back & forth between there and 880, to end the week breaking through to 927.30. Today's move is more ratcheting, more dancing, but it is progress, none the less.

SILVER has remained consistently stronger than gold during this rally, and remained so today, down 15 cents to end at $12.41. That's close enough to the $12.50 area to qualify as not breaking down. Expect tomorrow to force silver and gold to fight more and harder, but by midweek they both ought to be testing those US$920-940 and 12.80 - 13.00 barriers.

US DOLLAR INDEX closed today at 86.375, down 8.5 basis points. Once again y'all see how tenuously the metals & the dollar are connected. This old dog is long in the tooth, and just won't hunt. STOCKS, well, they just keep melting. Can't hold on to gains at all but manage to hang on to every loss. Some rally coming some time, but when. Glad y'all listened and sold your stocks already.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.