Gold Price Close Today : 1243.50
Change: 3.80 or 0.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.594
Change 7.7 cents or 0.4%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1537.30
Change: -4.20 or -0.3%
Palladium Price Close Today: 445.75
Change: -6.25 or -1.4%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.78
Change: -0.089 or -0.1%
Dow Industrial: 9,774.02
Change: -96.28 or -1.0%
US Dollar Index: 86.06
Change: -0.07 or -0.1%
Both gold and silver prices rose today, but modestly. Silver rose 7.7c to 18.62 while gold augmented $3.50 to $1,243.50, basis Comex close. Both are trading about unchanged in the aftermarket. Gold has drawn a V-bottom at about $1,225, then steadily risen, building a $1,235 floor. Still, it looks like a boring seismograph, oscillating here and yon to little change or purpose. 'Tis a market in tension, with beefy forces pushing from above and below. When it breaks at last, when one side or the other weakens, 'twill sprint a long way. Range bounded by $1,225 ($1,230) and $1,245 ($1,240). Y'all already know which way I expect it to break.
Like gold, silver has established a range but it's still unclear whether it is tracing out a continuation or reversal pattern in the range 18.35 - 18.75. What silver needs is to clear 19.00. Must hold 18.20.
Stockholders by now must be screaming for mercy. Dow has fallen 519,13 in the last five trading days. Oh, what a melancholy & lachrymose picture the Dow's chart drew today, as of a dying man trying one last feverish time to raise his head from the pillow, again and again in vain, and at last falling plumb off the bed and down the stairs. Dow is falling stair step fashion, a plunge with heavy momentum propelling it. Bear market rally is always possible, but don't expect one tomorrow.
Al Thomas of www.mutualfundmagic.com is talking about the coming Death Cross in stocks, when the 50 day moving average drops below the 200 DMA. As they used to say in the Tarzan movies: "Bad juju." The 5-day dollar index chart clearly shows a
double top yesterday about 86.25. Today the Samolean fell sharply from an 86.13 open to an 85.60 low, made a V-bottom there and treaded back to 86.064 now, 6.7 basis points lower than this time yesterday. For the short term the dollar's little rally-ette to 86.20 has topped and failed, yet a greater question looms: can the dollar keep floating above 85? Watch that level, & the 50 DMA (now 85.34) for a Titanic move if broken.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
As Long as Silver Doesn't Crash Through 18.00 nor Gold Through $1,218 They Will Keep Climbing
Gold Price Close Today : 1242.00
Change: 3.80 or 0.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.594
Change -8.4 cents or -0.4%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1541.50
Change: -23.00 or -1.5%
Palladium Price Close Today: 452.00
Change: -15.90 or -3.4%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.80
Change: 0.504 or 0.8%
Dow Industrial: 9,870.30
Change: -268.22 or -2.6%
US Dollar Index: 86.13
Change: 0.48 or 0.6%
Bottom fell out of stocks today. Dow dropped a monstrous 268.22 to close at 9,870.3, too far below 10,000 even to wave at it. S&P500 fell 33.33 to 1,041.24. This reduces the chance of any final rally to something near zero. This fall should prove long and devastating. Stay away from stocks.
US DOLLAR INDEX rose 47.9 basis point to poke its scabby noggin above 86 at 86.131. Unless it can climb above 86.20 tomorrow, that looks to be a finished move, yet dollar still leaves a question in the air, whether it will continue the rally after it finishes this correction. Tomorrow should be a down day.
SILVER and GOLD PRICES were confused today, with gold up $3.80 to $1,242 while the silver price fell 8.4c to $18.594. I'm guessing silver and gold prices face one additional down day. Silver's low today was 18.36, gold's fell at $1,226.30, but I never saw that one. As long as silver doesn't crash through 18.00 nor gold through $1,218, they will keep climbing. In the past few weeks these confused closes have led to higher prices the next day.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: 3.80 or 0.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.594
Change -8.4 cents or -0.4%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1541.50
Change: -23.00 or -1.5%
Palladium Price Close Today: 452.00
Change: -15.90 or -3.4%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.80
Change: 0.504 or 0.8%
Dow Industrial: 9,870.30
Change: -268.22 or -2.6%
US Dollar Index: 86.13
Change: 0.48 or 0.6%
Bottom fell out of stocks today. Dow dropped a monstrous 268.22 to close at 9,870.3, too far below 10,000 even to wave at it. S&P500 fell 33.33 to 1,041.24. This reduces the chance of any final rally to something near zero. This fall should prove long and devastating. Stay away from stocks.
US DOLLAR INDEX rose 47.9 basis point to poke its scabby noggin above 86 at 86.131. Unless it can climb above 86.20 tomorrow, that looks to be a finished move, yet dollar still leaves a question in the air, whether it will continue the rally after it finishes this correction. Tomorrow should be a down day.
SILVER and GOLD PRICES were confused today, with gold up $3.80 to $1,242 while the silver price fell 8.4c to $18.594. I'm guessing silver and gold prices face one additional down day. Silver's low today was 18.36, gold's fell at $1,226.30, but I never saw that one. As long as silver doesn't crash through 18.00 nor gold through $1,218, they will keep climbing. In the past few weeks these confused closes have led to higher prices the next day.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Silver and Gold Prices Were Driven Backwards Again Today
Gold Price Close Today : 1238.20
Change: -17.60 or -1.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.678
Change -43.2 cents or -2.3%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1564.50
Change: -3.60 or -0.2%
Palladium Price Close Today: 467.90
Change: -9.50 or -2.0%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.29
Change: 0.578 or 0.9%
Dow Industrial: 10,138.52
Change: -5.29 or -0.1%
US Dollar Index: 85.69
Change: 0.36 or 0.4%
SILVER and GOLD PRICES were driven backwards again today, paralleling last week's attack. This shouldn't surprise anyone since the gold price above $1,260 will attract buyers like incumbent politicians attract corporate donors and those charged with guarding the scrofulous dollar's value can't afford that.
The GOLD PRICE today handily fended off the attack on $1,238 support. It closed Comex down $17.60 at $1,238.20. Today's chart boasts a textbook example of a flag or pennant. It dropped from $1,262.50 high in a straight line (the flagpole), flew at half-mast (traded sideways above $1,245 in a rising wedge) then fell straight down once more to its $1,234.50 low. Rest of the day was whiled away trading sideways.
Ideally the gold price should not drop below $1,235, but ideal doesn't always happen. Let's say that gold is safe down to $1,225.
As always the attack wounded the SILVER PRICE more than gold. The silver price made a flag pattern like gold's off a $19.24 high. $18.60 held as the low. On Comex the silver price settled down 43.2c at $18.678.
Last week the silver price successfully fought off attacks down to $18.20. This week $18.50 ought to hold.
Suspicious as I am, I tend to view today's decline as an attack from our friends thebNice Government Men and their pustulous running dog lackeys in the bullion banks, but it might also have been traders coming in taking positions for the week where they thought silver and gold overbought.
Bear in mind: it is summertime, the slow season for silver and gold, plus this is the week before July 4th when nobody in the US works very hard. Thus silver and gold have about 2 more days to trade this week, as traders will be closing out positions Thursday and heading for a weekend of martinis on Long Guyland.
Over the weekend Dr. Robt. McHugh at www.technicalindicatorindex.com noted that from the April decline the last two months has wiped out $1.7 trillion of market value from the stock market. Would you like to hang on to your stocks, and wait around for that number to grow?
The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES broke down out of a long narrow triangle in early May and has since traded in a broadening channel, working up its courage and determination to break down. Bottom border of that channel now is about 520 ounces, about 15 oz below today's close. The last low came in March 2009 at 492.5 oz, down from 2,566 in June 2001 (80% loss). When the DiSoz falls through that bottom boundary, it will plummet quickly to 493, then toward the center of the earth.
STOCKS today tried twice to climb to 10,200, only to be slapped back both times. Toward day's end everybody lost hope and the Dow closed down 5.29. That doesn't appear much of a loss, but the damage and weakness is far more easily seen in its failure to breach 10,200. Expect a big move earthwards.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: -17.60 or -1.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.678
Change -43.2 cents or -2.3%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1564.50
Change: -3.60 or -0.2%
Palladium Price Close Today: 467.90
Change: -9.50 or -2.0%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.29
Change: 0.578 or 0.9%
Dow Industrial: 10,138.52
Change: -5.29 or -0.1%
US Dollar Index: 85.69
Change: 0.36 or 0.4%
SILVER and GOLD PRICES were driven backwards again today, paralleling last week's attack. This shouldn't surprise anyone since the gold price above $1,260 will attract buyers like incumbent politicians attract corporate donors and those charged with guarding the scrofulous dollar's value can't afford that.
The GOLD PRICE today handily fended off the attack on $1,238 support. It closed Comex down $17.60 at $1,238.20. Today's chart boasts a textbook example of a flag or pennant. It dropped from $1,262.50 high in a straight line (the flagpole), flew at half-mast (traded sideways above $1,245 in a rising wedge) then fell straight down once more to its $1,234.50 low. Rest of the day was whiled away trading sideways.
Ideally the gold price should not drop below $1,235, but ideal doesn't always happen. Let's say that gold is safe down to $1,225.
As always the attack wounded the SILVER PRICE more than gold. The silver price made a flag pattern like gold's off a $19.24 high. $18.60 held as the low. On Comex the silver price settled down 43.2c at $18.678.
Last week the silver price successfully fought off attacks down to $18.20. This week $18.50 ought to hold.
Suspicious as I am, I tend to view today's decline as an attack from our friends thebNice Government Men and their pustulous running dog lackeys in the bullion banks, but it might also have been traders coming in taking positions for the week where they thought silver and gold overbought.
Bear in mind: it is summertime, the slow season for silver and gold, plus this is the week before July 4th when nobody in the US works very hard. Thus silver and gold have about 2 more days to trade this week, as traders will be closing out positions Thursday and heading for a weekend of martinis on Long Guyland.
Over the weekend Dr. Robt. McHugh at www.technicalindicatorindex.com noted that from the April decline the last two months has wiped out $1.7 trillion of market value from the stock market. Would you like to hang on to your stocks, and wait around for that number to grow?
The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES broke down out of a long narrow triangle in early May and has since traded in a broadening channel, working up its courage and determination to break down. Bottom border of that channel now is about 520 ounces, about 15 oz below today's close. The last low came in March 2009 at 492.5 oz, down from 2,566 in June 2001 (80% loss). When the DiSoz falls through that bottom boundary, it will plummet quickly to 493, then toward the center of the earth.
STOCKS today tried twice to climb to 10,200, only to be slapped back both times. Toward day's end everybody lost hope and the Dow closed down 5.29. That doesn't appear much of a loss, but the damage and weakness is far more easily seen in its failure to breach 10,200. Expect a big move earthwards.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Friday, June 25, 2010
MUCH Higher Gold and Silver Prices are Coming - Buy, or be Left Behind
Gold Price Close Today : 1,255.80
Gold Price Close June 11: 1,257.20
Change: -1.40 or -0.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 19.11
Silver Price Close June 11 : 19.175
Change -6.50 cents or -0.3%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1,568.10
Platinum Price Close June 11: 1,590.05
Change: -21.95 or -1.4%
Palladium Price Close Today: 477.40
Palladium Price Close June 11: 489.75
Change: -12.35 or -2.5%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.71
Gold Silver Ratio June 11: 65.56
Change: 0.15 or 0.2%
Dow Industrial: 10,143.81
Dow Industrial June 11: 10,450.64
Change: -306.83 or -2.9%
US Dollar Index: 85.299
US Dollar Index June 11: 85.578
Change: -0.28 or -0.3%
Tune down the SQUAWK and listen to the week broadcasting. Stocks were the big loser for the week, along with the US dollar and the Dow in gold Dollars. After all the flurry and turmoil, silver and gold prices closed the week basically unchanged.
The GOLD PRICE has been shining these lat two days. Yesterday it added $11.40, and today another $10.30 to close at $1,255.80, just under the all time high close at $1,257. But I feel like the girl whose boyfriend just asked her to get married. I want to say to gold, "That's good! That's great! That's wonderful -- but where's the ring?" The ring, of course, is that close above $1,257. Mayhap I wax too critical -- after all, gold had to contend with Options Expiry this week. We have an uptrend in force since November 2008, successful corrections without disastrous breakdowns, and now a summer rally. Face it: the gold price is determined to move higher.
After a thorough beating this week, the SILVER PRICE shook it all off and like a world class heavyweight champion came back to rout its opponents. It finished the week barely 6.5c below last week's close. Don't minimize the accomplishment: it's a long ways from 18.20 to 19.20. Today silver closed at 19.11, up 37.4c after rising 27.7c today. Most important was closing above 19.00, a psychological hurdle. The silver price is in the rally-mode again, and this sets it up for a challenge of the old 19.80 (intraday) high next week. Only resistance is around 19.50. Strikes me that this is time to add to both silver and gold positions. When silver breaks out above 19.80, then beats the 2008 high of 20.68, twill run like a scalded dog toward $30.00. Yep, I know it is summer and the time metals usually aestivate, but this year they are skipping that little nap. MUCH higher gold and silver prices are coming. Buy, or be left behind.
The US DOLLAR INDEX fell out of bed before the open, around 86.1, and kept on rolling down the stairs all day long. Trading now at 85.299, down 43.4 basis points, a hefty bleeder for the dollar. Dollar stands but 25 basis points from its 50 DMA at 85.04, & is already below its 20 DMA (86.68). This 85 level is a cliff where the foot of the cliff is 82.25. The dollar leaves us still undecided, whether that June peak was the end of the rally from last December, or merely one rest stop on the way to 90 or 92. If it fell to 83.2 that would amount to only a 38.2% correction of that Dec - June move. Fall below 82 & the dollar says, "The rally is over." Right now it acts as if it will fall further next week.
I really take no joy in reporting on stocks, because I know how very many people remain stuck and clueless in that trap. This week the Dow declined steadily, losing 307 points. Today it lost another 9 points to close at 10,143.81. S&P500 today closed at 1,076.76, up 3.07. The day for stocks opened badly, pounding the down as low as 10,081, mighty near the magic 10,000 line. Yet stocks found a friend or friends about 1:30 who waded in buying so the Dow wouldn't end the week on a 90 point down day. Wow. Isn't it neat that the Nice Government Men do that sort of really helpful work today? Once upon a time they only did lowly jobs like filling potholes and chopping weeds and arresting John Dillingers. Now they've stepped up and are "making the world safe for Billionaires."
The Dow in Gold Dollars didn't quite make a new low for this move, but it was close. Signal is given: gold will move big against stocks.
On this day in 1876 Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer and his 200 men of the 7th cavalry lost their lives in Montana at the Battle of Little Big Horn. Custer and the US Army were practicing on the Sioux and Cheyenne the genocidal skills they had perfected against Southerners during the War for Southern Independence, but in 20 minutes the Indians turned the tables.
On this day in 1977 Roy C. Sullivan of Virginia was struck by lightning for the seventh (7th) time. Looks like he would have quit going outside after the 5th or sixth time, doesn't it? There's something weird about people getting struck by lightning. I know
a man who has been struck not once but twice by lightning. That's a powerful argument against randomness in the universe, mathemeticians notwithstanding. What are the chances that one person would be struck twice by lightning? Or 7 times?
And survive?
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Gold Price Close June 11: 1,257.20
Change: -1.40 or -0.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 19.11
Silver Price Close June 11 : 19.175
Change -6.50 cents or -0.3%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1,568.10
Platinum Price Close June 11: 1,590.05
Change: -21.95 or -1.4%
Palladium Price Close Today: 477.40
Palladium Price Close June 11: 489.75
Change: -12.35 or -2.5%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.71
Gold Silver Ratio June 11: 65.56
Change: 0.15 or 0.2%
Dow Industrial: 10,143.81
Dow Industrial June 11: 10,450.64
Change: -306.83 or -2.9%
US Dollar Index: 85.299
US Dollar Index June 11: 85.578
Change: -0.28 or -0.3%
Tune down the SQUAWK and listen to the week broadcasting. Stocks were the big loser for the week, along with the US dollar and the Dow in gold Dollars. After all the flurry and turmoil, silver and gold prices closed the week basically unchanged.
The GOLD PRICE has been shining these lat two days. Yesterday it added $11.40, and today another $10.30 to close at $1,255.80, just under the all time high close at $1,257. But I feel like the girl whose boyfriend just asked her to get married. I want to say to gold, "That's good! That's great! That's wonderful -- but where's the ring?" The ring, of course, is that close above $1,257. Mayhap I wax too critical -- after all, gold had to contend with Options Expiry this week. We have an uptrend in force since November 2008, successful corrections without disastrous breakdowns, and now a summer rally. Face it: the gold price is determined to move higher.
After a thorough beating this week, the SILVER PRICE shook it all off and like a world class heavyweight champion came back to rout its opponents. It finished the week barely 6.5c below last week's close. Don't minimize the accomplishment: it's a long ways from 18.20 to 19.20. Today silver closed at 19.11, up 37.4c after rising 27.7c today. Most important was closing above 19.00, a psychological hurdle. The silver price is in the rally-mode again, and this sets it up for a challenge of the old 19.80 (intraday) high next week. Only resistance is around 19.50. Strikes me that this is time to add to both silver and gold positions. When silver breaks out above 19.80, then beats the 2008 high of 20.68, twill run like a scalded dog toward $30.00. Yep, I know it is summer and the time metals usually aestivate, but this year they are skipping that little nap. MUCH higher gold and silver prices are coming. Buy, or be left behind.
The US DOLLAR INDEX fell out of bed before the open, around 86.1, and kept on rolling down the stairs all day long. Trading now at 85.299, down 43.4 basis points, a hefty bleeder for the dollar. Dollar stands but 25 basis points from its 50 DMA at 85.04, & is already below its 20 DMA (86.68). This 85 level is a cliff where the foot of the cliff is 82.25. The dollar leaves us still undecided, whether that June peak was the end of the rally from last December, or merely one rest stop on the way to 90 or 92. If it fell to 83.2 that would amount to only a 38.2% correction of that Dec - June move. Fall below 82 & the dollar says, "The rally is over." Right now it acts as if it will fall further next week.
I really take no joy in reporting on stocks, because I know how very many people remain stuck and clueless in that trap. This week the Dow declined steadily, losing 307 points. Today it lost another 9 points to close at 10,143.81. S&P500 today closed at 1,076.76, up 3.07. The day for stocks opened badly, pounding the down as low as 10,081, mighty near the magic 10,000 line. Yet stocks found a friend or friends about 1:30 who waded in buying so the Dow wouldn't end the week on a 90 point down day. Wow. Isn't it neat that the Nice Government Men do that sort of really helpful work today? Once upon a time they only did lowly jobs like filling potholes and chopping weeds and arresting John Dillingers. Now they've stepped up and are "making the world safe for Billionaires."
The Dow in Gold Dollars didn't quite make a new low for this move, but it was close. Signal is given: gold will move big against stocks.
On this day in 1876 Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer and his 200 men of the 7th cavalry lost their lives in Montana at the Battle of Little Big Horn. Custer and the US Army were practicing on the Sioux and Cheyenne the genocidal skills they had perfected against Southerners during the War for Southern Independence, but in 20 minutes the Indians turned the tables.
On this day in 1977 Roy C. Sullivan of Virginia was struck by lightning for the seventh (7th) time. Looks like he would have quit going outside after the 5th or sixth time, doesn't it? There's something weird about people getting struck by lightning. I know
a man who has been struck not once but twice by lightning. That's a powerful argument against randomness in the universe, mathemeticians notwithstanding. What are the chances that one person would be struck twice by lightning? Or 7 times?
And survive?
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
If the Gold Price Fails to Advance Tomorrow or Monday Above $1245, it Will be Forced to March in Place a While
Gold Price Close Today : 1245.50
Change: 11.40 or 0.9%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.731
Change 27.7 cents or 1.5%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1567.30
Change: -2.70 or -0.2%
Palladium Price Close Today: 476.50
Change: 3.30 or 0.7%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.49
Change: -0.380 or -0.6%
Dow Industrial: 10,152.80
Change: -145.64 or -0.8%
US Dollar Index: 85.77
Change: 0.03 or 0.0%
Options expiry didn't work out very smoothly for the manipulating crown. The GOLD PRICE rose from its $1,237.80 open to a $1,248.35 high, then hovered around $1,245 rest of the day. Comex closed up $11.40 at $1,245.50. Ending the day above $1,240 was great success for gold. Yet the five day chart still looks rangebound by $1,225 - $1,240. If the gold price fails to advance tomorrow or Monday above $1245, it will be forced to march in place a while.
The SILVER PRICE was driven down (passive voice obscures the actor) as low as 18.17 overnight but popped up from the opening to 18.80 and closed Comex up 27.7c at 18.731. Range now established is narrow, 18.35 to 18.80. The big hurdle above silver is 19.00. If it doesn't break out in the next few days, it will be doomed to tread water till August.
Yesterday the Federal Open Market Committee, the commissars charged with alternately strangling the economy and making it smoke crack, met and whined and moaned and didn't touch interest rates. They are prisoners of their own Keynesian orthodoxy and their own manipulation. Now they can do no other than keep interest rates low, because raising them risks a catastrophe. Wonder if they have a saddle for that tiger?
You have to wonder how a great nation, filled with practical, energetic, and fairly intelligent people, was ever made the slave of such a moronic system as the Federal Reserve and government control of the economy. There was a big hole somewhere, in education or understanding or character.
The US DOLLAR INDEX failed yesterday at 86.40 and ran off like a whipped puppy to hide beneath 86. It is now trading at 85.76, up 2.5 basis points. Three days ago the dollar index bounced off 85. In the next few days it ought to rise as part of an Up-Down-Up correction. Therefore don't let a dollar rally in the next few days steam your glasses, because another down leg lieth ahead.
STOCKS continue painfully to decay. Today the Dow closed at 10,152.80, down 145.64. That is below the 20 day moving average (now 10,200), threshold of a trend change. The Dow is already below its 200 DMA (10,354) & 50 DMA (10,537). Soon the 50 DMA will drop below the 200 DMA, a sure signal of lower prices to come. Deadly. S&P today closed down 18.35 at $1,073.69.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: 11.40 or 0.9%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.731
Change 27.7 cents or 1.5%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1567.30
Change: -2.70 or -0.2%
Palladium Price Close Today: 476.50
Change: 3.30 or 0.7%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.49
Change: -0.380 or -0.6%
Dow Industrial: 10,152.80
Change: -145.64 or -0.8%
US Dollar Index: 85.77
Change: 0.03 or 0.0%
Options expiry didn't work out very smoothly for the manipulating crown. The GOLD PRICE rose from its $1,237.80 open to a $1,248.35 high, then hovered around $1,245 rest of the day. Comex closed up $11.40 at $1,245.50. Ending the day above $1,240 was great success for gold. Yet the five day chart still looks rangebound by $1,225 - $1,240. If the gold price fails to advance tomorrow or Monday above $1245, it will be forced to march in place a while.
The SILVER PRICE was driven down (passive voice obscures the actor) as low as 18.17 overnight but popped up from the opening to 18.80 and closed Comex up 27.7c at 18.731. Range now established is narrow, 18.35 to 18.80. The big hurdle above silver is 19.00. If it doesn't break out in the next few days, it will be doomed to tread water till August.
Yesterday the Federal Open Market Committee, the commissars charged with alternately strangling the economy and making it smoke crack, met and whined and moaned and didn't touch interest rates. They are prisoners of their own Keynesian orthodoxy and their own manipulation. Now they can do no other than keep interest rates low, because raising them risks a catastrophe. Wonder if they have a saddle for that tiger?
You have to wonder how a great nation, filled with practical, energetic, and fairly intelligent people, was ever made the slave of such a moronic system as the Federal Reserve and government control of the economy. There was a big hole somewhere, in education or understanding or character.
The US DOLLAR INDEX failed yesterday at 86.40 and ran off like a whipped puppy to hide beneath 86. It is now trading at 85.76, up 2.5 basis points. Three days ago the dollar index bounced off 85. In the next few days it ought to rise as part of an Up-Down-Up correction. Therefore don't let a dollar rally in the next few days steam your glasses, because another down leg lieth ahead.
STOCKS continue painfully to decay. Today the Dow closed at 10,152.80, down 145.64. That is below the 20 day moving average (now 10,200), threshold of a trend change. The Dow is already below its 200 DMA (10,354) & 50 DMA (10,537). Soon the 50 DMA will drop below the 200 DMA, a sure signal of lower prices to come. Deadly. S&P today closed down 18.35 at $1,073.69.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
As Long As The Gold Price Remains Above $1,190 It Stays In An Uptrend.
Gold Price Close Today : 1239.90
Change: -0.20 or -0.0%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.896
Change 9.4 cents or 0.5%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1583.00
Change: -6.05 or -0.4%
Palladium Price Close Today: 484.50
Change: -10.45 or -2.1%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.62
Change: -0.339 or -0.5%
Dow Industrial: 10,293.52
Change: -148.89 or -1.4%
US Dollar Index: 86.10
Change: 0.17 or 0.2%
Following up on yesterdays comments about options expiry on this Thursday, here are the strike prices where options are clustered:
Silver
$19.00 strike, 2,000 each
$18.50 725 each
$18.00 1,400 each
Gold:
$1,250 strike, 8,188 ea.
$1,230, 1,230 ea
$1,220, 4,000 ea.
$1,210, 2,500 ea.
$1,200, 8,700 ea.
Looking at that, expect to see efforts (1) to keep the GOLD PRICE from topping $1,250, and (2) to drive the gold price below $1,220 and $1,200, if even only to $1,198 on Thursday's close.
In silver, expect a fight to keep the SILVER PRICE away from $19.00, and to drive it down below $18.50.
Nothing says that the manipulators will win, only that they will surely try.
Face it: as long as the gold price remains below $1,250 doubt hangs over the market. Was that $1,250+ close only a tease, a fake-out, a false breakout, or was it real? This week options expiry clouds things with a transitory force. As long as the gold price remains above $1,190 it stays in an uptrend.
Today the gold price closed on Comex at $1,239.90, up a meager 20c. For my purposes that's a portentous double close with yesterday, & may presage a change of trend, up or down. Today's trading resolves nothing, says nothing.
Here's a tasty morsel: the Gold/Silver ratio closed 65.56 on Friday, 65.93 yesterday, and 65.62 today. Although it rose yesterday, today it fell. If the uptrend for silver and gold were turning, that ratio would be rising, probably sharply.
The silver price today rose 9.4c to close $18.896. It pleases me that it remains above $18.80. Today's trading essentially continued sideways from yesterday. Oh, it rose to $19.00 but then backed off. Low was $18.57. This gives us a range to gauge tomorrow's performance: a move below $18.50 takes silver down, a move above $19.00 turns it up.
Lift up your eyes to the hills, and look at the far horizon! Long term SILVER and GOLD PRICES remain in a primary uptrend (bull market). Today's struggles are only to determine how much faster they will rise, not whether they will rise. Keep your eyes on the long term, buy more whenever
the price dips.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: -0.20 or -0.0%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.896
Change 9.4 cents or 0.5%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1583.00
Change: -6.05 or -0.4%
Palladium Price Close Today: 484.50
Change: -10.45 or -2.1%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.62
Change: -0.339 or -0.5%
Dow Industrial: 10,293.52
Change: -148.89 or -1.4%
US Dollar Index: 86.10
Change: 0.17 or 0.2%
Following up on yesterdays comments about options expiry on this Thursday, here are the strike prices where options are clustered:
Silver
$19.00 strike, 2,000 each
$18.50 725 each
$18.00 1,400 each
Gold:
$1,250 strike, 8,188 ea.
$1,230, 1,230 ea
$1,220, 4,000 ea.
$1,210, 2,500 ea.
$1,200, 8,700 ea.
Looking at that, expect to see efforts (1) to keep the GOLD PRICE from topping $1,250, and (2) to drive the gold price below $1,220 and $1,200, if even only to $1,198 on Thursday's close.
In silver, expect a fight to keep the SILVER PRICE away from $19.00, and to drive it down below $18.50.
Nothing says that the manipulators will win, only that they will surely try.
Face it: as long as the gold price remains below $1,250 doubt hangs over the market. Was that $1,250+ close only a tease, a fake-out, a false breakout, or was it real? This week options expiry clouds things with a transitory force. As long as the gold price remains above $1,190 it stays in an uptrend.
Today the gold price closed on Comex at $1,239.90, up a meager 20c. For my purposes that's a portentous double close with yesterday, & may presage a change of trend, up or down. Today's trading resolves nothing, says nothing.
Here's a tasty morsel: the Gold/Silver ratio closed 65.56 on Friday, 65.93 yesterday, and 65.62 today. Although it rose yesterday, today it fell. If the uptrend for silver and gold were turning, that ratio would be rising, probably sharply.
The silver price today rose 9.4c to close $18.896. It pleases me that it remains above $18.80. Today's trading essentially continued sideways from yesterday. Oh, it rose to $19.00 but then backed off. Low was $18.57. This gives us a range to gauge tomorrow's performance: a move below $18.50 takes silver down, a move above $19.00 turns it up.
Lift up your eyes to the hills, and look at the far horizon! Long term SILVER and GOLD PRICES remain in a primary uptrend (bull market). Today's struggles are only to determine how much faster they will rise, not whether they will rise. Keep your eyes on the long term, buy more whenever
the price dips.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Today's Fall Leaves All Gold Owners Uncomfortable, it Really Hasn't Hurt Much Yet
Gold Price Close Today : 1239.70
Change: -17.50 or -1.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.802
Change -37.3 cents or -1.9%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1589.40
Change: -0.65 or -0.0%
Palladium Price Close Today: 493.45
Change: 3.70 or 0.8%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.93
Change: 0.370 or 0.6%
Dow Industrial: 10,442.41
Change: -8.23 or -0.1%
US Dollar Index: 85.58
Change: -0.11 or -0.1%
Ahhh! Foolish Moneychanger! You should have reckoned with the needs of the poor destitute options writers before the looming options expiry on 24 June! And did you also forget the Nice Government Men & their need to control the world through manipulating currency rates, silver, gold, and the price of bubble gum? Was that what made you let your optimism run wild last Friday?
Oh, never mind making excuses. Caution never goes out of style. Yet there is little damage done to silver and gold.
The US DOLLAR INDEX rallied 58.8 basis points today, a nice jump, but it only reached the window sill of resistance around 86. Now trading at 85.95, the dollar will have to crash its way through 86 & move sharply higher to prove a turnaround. A close over 86.50 is needed to convince me that the Dollar has finished its time in the basement.
Did the Chinese announcement on Saturday send gold down? I see people asking that and wonder what they are thinking. First off, the Chinese central banks announcement was an oriental puzzle, saying precisely nothing. It implies they will allow the yuan to appreciate within their peg to the US Dollar, but it implies that only because it is a meaningless statement otherwise. The statement asserts that for now the "floating bands" remain unchanged.
But ponder that question again. The Chinese are a major buyer of US governemnt debt. Suppose they intend to let their own currency rise against the dollar. A little mosquito bite from that would be lowering the value of all the US debt they already own. A more threatining wound is a higher yuan's impact on exports. But in any event, how on earth would a small change help the dollar? It can't, even over the long term. Does anybody think that a little fiddling with the exchange rate will curtail Chinese exports to the US, or help the US balance of payments materially? Nope, the Chinese aren't going to kill the American goose that keeps laying golden eggs and keeps their gigantic work force (now drawn off the farm) working by drastically raising their exchange rate. So whatever the Chinese announcement means, it will NOT be bearish for gold.
Go read the last two statements at www.pbc.gov.cn, & see what you can glean out of them. But markets often misinterpret events when they first hit. That's the "propaganda effect."
STOCKS today trod water. Dow fell 8.23 to 10,442.41 while S&P500 dropped 4.31 to 1,113.20. Nothing wrong with treading water, until you do it for six or eight hours in the middle of the ocean, at which point it becomes less than an ideal strategy. Stocks could still go either way, staging one more rally or falling over into the pit. Save yourself tears, heartache, and money, and stay out of stocks.
From the open gold came under fire but gave up little ground until about 12:30 EDT when -- I assume -- large sellers came in driving gold through $1,250 straight down to $1,235. Comex closed lower by 17.50 at $1,239.7, and a trembling aftermarket is trading $1,235.20. While today's fall leaves all gold owners uncomfortable, it really hasn't hurt much yet. Today's low came at $1,229.40 after Comex closed. This level shouldn't surprise, since strong support lurks around $1,228.70.
Plainly, this week gold will be dodging bullets until options expire on 24 June. Options writers and whoever else wants to hitch a ride along with a manipulation always try -- try, I said -- to run down gold before the options they have sold expire. Selling them is a lot more profitable when you never have to pay off. I'm guessing a lot of call options have been sold with $1,225 strikes, so watch that price.
Gold's 20 day moving average stands at $1,224.22, and that is a tripwire for lower prices.
SILVER made its low today at 18.63, but that must have been fast since I never saw it that low. Comex close was 18.802, down 37.3c, but aftermarket is trading at 18.77.
As with gold, the big silver break began around noon EDT, then had dropped 50c in a half hour. You have to expect this sort of volatility now. This area around 18.80 is silver's first support. Ahh, look at that! Silver's drop only brought it to the rising trend line of it upmove that began 4 June. 20 DMA today is 18.31. Plenty of support near there.
Bottom line on the day is that traders and options writers saw low-hanging fruit (market overextended from Friday) and shook it down. This does not alter my conclusion that silver and gold are about to rally more, but I will put my hand over my mouth and let the market tell me.
Over the years I have investigated a lot of alternative cancer therapies, largely because the mainstream or orthodox ones mostly don't work. In the early 1990s I first interviewed Dr. Nicholas Gonzalez of New York who employs a therapy including pancreatic enzymes to break down the tumor, diets tailored to metabolic type, and cleansing regimes. He had learned this technique from the genius who developed it, Dr. William Kelly, a Texas orthodontist. Kelly discovered it by curing himself he was a medical student, and went to study his work. He was astounded to find that Kelly was curing all sorts of cancer. Gonzalez own experience shows the therapy effective in nearly 70% of those he treats. You can read that interview at www.the-moneychanger.com/articles_files/health/dr_nicholas_gonzalez.phtml
Yet for some reason (?) the medical establishment persecuted Kelly mercilessly. After six year's work, Dr. Gonzalez couldn't find anyone anywhere to publish his study. Only recently has he published it himself through New Spring Press, www.newspringpress.com, as One Man Alone. He has also published a more techincal (but very clear and readable) explanation of the therapy in The Trophoblast and the Origins of Cancer.
Understandably many people panic when they hear the cancer diagnosis. Some seem to try to atone for themselves by slavishly following whatever orthodox medicine prescribes for them. Few, very few, will research and study and choose alternative therapy. I can't speak for other people, but if I had cancer, I'd get on a plane to Nick Gonzalez in New York so fast my slipstream would tear leaves off the trees. I don't believe anybody could talk me into radiation or chemotherapy.
But you decide for yourself. Go read my interview with Dr. Gonzalez, and better yet, buy his books. If you can read those without suspecting that this is the most promising and effective cancer therapy available, then you can call me up and personally horse-laugh in my ear.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: -17.50 or -1.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.802
Change -37.3 cents or -1.9%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1589.40
Change: -0.65 or -0.0%
Palladium Price Close Today: 493.45
Change: 3.70 or 0.8%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.93
Change: 0.370 or 0.6%
Dow Industrial: 10,442.41
Change: -8.23 or -0.1%
US Dollar Index: 85.58
Change: -0.11 or -0.1%
Ahhh! Foolish Moneychanger! You should have reckoned with the needs of the poor destitute options writers before the looming options expiry on 24 June! And did you also forget the Nice Government Men & their need to control the world through manipulating currency rates, silver, gold, and the price of bubble gum? Was that what made you let your optimism run wild last Friday?
Oh, never mind making excuses. Caution never goes out of style. Yet there is little damage done to silver and gold.
The US DOLLAR INDEX rallied 58.8 basis points today, a nice jump, but it only reached the window sill of resistance around 86. Now trading at 85.95, the dollar will have to crash its way through 86 & move sharply higher to prove a turnaround. A close over 86.50 is needed to convince me that the Dollar has finished its time in the basement.
Did the Chinese announcement on Saturday send gold down? I see people asking that and wonder what they are thinking. First off, the Chinese central banks announcement was an oriental puzzle, saying precisely nothing. It implies they will allow the yuan to appreciate within their peg to the US Dollar, but it implies that only because it is a meaningless statement otherwise. The statement asserts that for now the "floating bands" remain unchanged.
But ponder that question again. The Chinese are a major buyer of US governemnt debt. Suppose they intend to let their own currency rise against the dollar. A little mosquito bite from that would be lowering the value of all the US debt they already own. A more threatining wound is a higher yuan's impact on exports. But in any event, how on earth would a small change help the dollar? It can't, even over the long term. Does anybody think that a little fiddling with the exchange rate will curtail Chinese exports to the US, or help the US balance of payments materially? Nope, the Chinese aren't going to kill the American goose that keeps laying golden eggs and keeps their gigantic work force (now drawn off the farm) working by drastically raising their exchange rate. So whatever the Chinese announcement means, it will NOT be bearish for gold.
Go read the last two statements at www.pbc.gov.cn, & see what you can glean out of them. But markets often misinterpret events when they first hit. That's the "propaganda effect."
STOCKS today trod water. Dow fell 8.23 to 10,442.41 while S&P500 dropped 4.31 to 1,113.20. Nothing wrong with treading water, until you do it for six or eight hours in the middle of the ocean, at which point it becomes less than an ideal strategy. Stocks could still go either way, staging one more rally or falling over into the pit. Save yourself tears, heartache, and money, and stay out of stocks.
From the open gold came under fire but gave up little ground until about 12:30 EDT when -- I assume -- large sellers came in driving gold through $1,250 straight down to $1,235. Comex closed lower by 17.50 at $1,239.7, and a trembling aftermarket is trading $1,235.20. While today's fall leaves all gold owners uncomfortable, it really hasn't hurt much yet. Today's low came at $1,229.40 after Comex closed. This level shouldn't surprise, since strong support lurks around $1,228.70.
Plainly, this week gold will be dodging bullets until options expire on 24 June. Options writers and whoever else wants to hitch a ride along with a manipulation always try -- try, I said -- to run down gold before the options they have sold expire. Selling them is a lot more profitable when you never have to pay off. I'm guessing a lot of call options have been sold with $1,225 strikes, so watch that price.
Gold's 20 day moving average stands at $1,224.22, and that is a tripwire for lower prices.
SILVER made its low today at 18.63, but that must have been fast since I never saw it that low. Comex close was 18.802, down 37.3c, but aftermarket is trading at 18.77.
As with gold, the big silver break began around noon EDT, then had dropped 50c in a half hour. You have to expect this sort of volatility now. This area around 18.80 is silver's first support. Ahh, look at that! Silver's drop only brought it to the rising trend line of it upmove that began 4 June. 20 DMA today is 18.31. Plenty of support near there.
Bottom line on the day is that traders and options writers saw low-hanging fruit (market overextended from Friday) and shook it down. This does not alter my conclusion that silver and gold are about to rally more, but I will put my hand over my mouth and let the market tell me.
Over the years I have investigated a lot of alternative cancer therapies, largely because the mainstream or orthodox ones mostly don't work. In the early 1990s I first interviewed Dr. Nicholas Gonzalez of New York who employs a therapy including pancreatic enzymes to break down the tumor, diets tailored to metabolic type, and cleansing regimes. He had learned this technique from the genius who developed it, Dr. William Kelly, a Texas orthodontist. Kelly discovered it by curing himself he was a medical student, and went to study his work. He was astounded to find that Kelly was curing all sorts of cancer. Gonzalez own experience shows the therapy effective in nearly 70% of those he treats. You can read that interview at www.the-moneychanger.com/articles_files/health/dr_nicholas_gonzalez.phtml
Yet for some reason (?) the medical establishment persecuted Kelly mercilessly. After six year's work, Dr. Gonzalez couldn't find anyone anywhere to publish his study. Only recently has he published it himself through New Spring Press, www.newspringpress.com, as One Man Alone. He has also published a more techincal (but very clear and readable) explanation of the therapy in The Trophoblast and the Origins of Cancer.
Understandably many people panic when they hear the cancer diagnosis. Some seem to try to atone for themselves by slavishly following whatever orthodox medicine prescribes for them. Few, very few, will research and study and choose alternative therapy. I can't speak for other people, but if I had cancer, I'd get on a plane to Nick Gonzalez in New York so fast my slipstream would tear leaves off the trees. I don't believe anybody could talk me into radiation or chemotherapy.
But you decide for yourself. Go read my interview with Dr. Gonzalez, and better yet, buy his books. If you can read those without suspecting that this is the most promising and effective cancer therapy available, then you can call me up and personally horse-laugh in my ear.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Friday, June 18, 2010
The Wild Gold Price Bull Ride Has Begun
Gold Price Close Today : 1,257.20
Gold Price Close June 11: 1,228.90
Change: 28.30 or 2.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 1917.5
Silver Price Close June 11 : 1822.2
Change 95.30 cents or 5.2%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1,590.05
Platinum Price Close June 11: 1,534.30
Change: 55.75 or 3.6%
Palladium Price Close Today: 489.75
Palladium Price Close June 11: 446.45
Change: 43.30 or 9.7%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.56
Gold Silver Ratio June 11: 67.44
Change: -1.88 or -2.8%
Dow Industrial: 10,450.64
Dow Industrial June 11: 10,211.07
Change: 239.57 or 2.3%
US Dollar Index: 85.578
US Dollar Index June 11: 87.277
Change: -1.70 or -1.9%
Questions, anyone, left over from last week's trading? This week answered all mysteries.
The US DOLLAR did not have a good week, losing a colossal 170 basis points. The weekly chart looks awfully double-toppy with the March 2009 peak and the June 2010 peak, but remember that a trend in force remains in force until violated, so the dollar is still trending up, although presently in a downward correction.
Let us ponder dollar possibilities. Presently the buck is below its 20 day moving average (86.83) at 85.578, having dropped another 11 basis points today. Next support lies at 85-85.30, and at the 50 DMA at 84.52. Thereafter only air intervenes until 82.25. If the dollar violates its 50 DMA, then its intermediate trend has changed from up to down. Otherwise, it still has a chance to hit 90 - 92. But first, more downside.
STOCKS are clinging to the cliff of decision: should we jump off to doom, or walk through the air into the sky? They have just this week climbed above their 200 DMA at 10,335. Today the Dow closed at 10,450.64, up 16.47, while the S&P500 rose 1.47 to 1,117.51. Whether stocks stage another eye-popping rally or not, stay away from them. Stocks are in a primary down trend (bear market) that will last another 6 years or more. Want to de-capitalize yourself? Buy stocks!
Oddly, though, the Dow in Gold Dollars has remained about the same frustrating level last two days. Early in May it fell through its uptrend line about $G$191.27 (9.252 oz) and plummeted straight down to a low at G$163.74 (7.92 oz). It has since rallied to G$175.04 (8.468 oz) and fallen back last two days to G$171.78 & G$171.84 (8.313 oz). Double closes often signal a trend change or a market out of gas. Given gold's strength, stocks had better pull over at the next gas station.
SILVER rose 5.2% this week, about twice as much as gold. Need I say more? Well, I'm going to.
From that bogus low on 4 June at 17.29 silver in ten (10) days has risen 188.5c or 11% [sic]. The gold/silver ratio has fallen from 70.382 to 65.565, down an enormous 4.817 or 6.8%. Silver has now proven to my satisfaction that June 4 was an anomaly, an artefact, a manipulation, or a fluke. Today it rose 40.8c to close 1917.5. This is a bodacious breakout.
The Gold/Silver ratio, remember, is the price of gold divided by the price of silver, or how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold. Over the course of a precious metals bull market that ratio falls, meaning silver rises faster than gold over the life of the whole bull market, although not every day or even for long stretches. Today at 65.565 the ratio is about to fall through its 300 day moving average (65.37) and 50 DMA 965.29). It already stands below the 20 day moving average tripwire (66.9). The 200 DMA awaits at 64.03. Once the ratio breaks through that mark it will slide fast, as that roughly coincides with the bottom border of a triangle pattern. First target then will be 60.6784 (last low), and ultimately 47.5 for this rally.
Be advised that at 47.5:1 I recommend swapping silver for gold according to my silver/gold swapping strategy.
What a dirty job I had to do today! Had to reset the scale on all my gold price charts since gold burst through $1250 today to a new $1,257.20, up $9.70. On the GLD ETF chart gold made a double gap last two days and is above its old highs. This is a runaway breakout. The GDX gold stock index also double gapped, as did SLV, the silver ETF. (Thanks, Bob, for pointing these out.) As I said yesterday, there are no triple tops, only two taps and a breakthrough, and that' what gold did today. The bull market that has climbed a wall of worry from 1045 in February has now crashed through the fence and is running wild on a rampage. I can only repeat what I wrote yesterday: always buy the breakouts.
The gold price has now entered that wave of a bull market where the craziest and most unpredictable events happen, and all the surprises occur to the upside. Silver price is a little out of sync with gold, a little behind. First it must beat that last top at $19.81 intraday then march on to conquer the March 2008 peak at $20.67 (close). Target for this move in silver is $29.00. I understand that sounds ridiculous, now, but won't sound ridiculous then.
This is what we have been patiently waiting for: the wild bull ride has begun. If you have not already bought silver and gold, you had better buy quickly or be forever left standing at the station.
On this day in 1812 the US declared war on Great Britain, angered over British imprisonments of US sailors, and, maybe a little bit wanting to conquer Canada. In August, 1814 the British cordially returned the favour by invading Washington and burning down the Capitol and White House. Little Jimmy Madison fled, and Dolly his wife had time only to save the White House drapes and some silverware. Having killed a bunch of folks for no good purpose, the US and Great Britain signed a peace treaty on 24 December 1814. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your outlook) word did not reach either American forces in the West or British forces in the gulf. In January the British invaded near New Orleans and were met by Tennessee volunteers (and a sprinkling of Kentuckians, to be fair) under General Andrew Jackson, who whipped 'em bad on the ninth of January 1815. I feel really bad about the British getting beaten like that. I wonder if we could make it up to them by letting them burn down the Capitol and the White House again. Goodness, I'd even throw in all those government office buildings, too, just for good measure. Oh, and don't forget the IRS building.
On this day in 1178 just after sunset five monks at Canterbury witnessed the moon explode in flames. Gervase of Canterbury reported they were looking at a new crescent moon when the upper part "suddenly split in two. From the midpoint of this division a flaming torch sprang up, spewing out fire, hot coals, and sparks. The body of the moon which was below writhed and throbbed like a wounded snake. Some today doubt the report, others say it was caused by a meteor striking the moon.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Gold Price Close June 11: 1,228.90
Change: 28.30 or 2.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 1917.5
Silver Price Close June 11 : 1822.2
Change 95.30 cents or 5.2%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1,590.05
Platinum Price Close June 11: 1,534.30
Change: 55.75 or 3.6%
Palladium Price Close Today: 489.75
Palladium Price Close June 11: 446.45
Change: 43.30 or 9.7%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.56
Gold Silver Ratio June 11: 67.44
Change: -1.88 or -2.8%
Dow Industrial: 10,450.64
Dow Industrial June 11: 10,211.07
Change: 239.57 or 2.3%
US Dollar Index: 85.578
US Dollar Index June 11: 87.277
Change: -1.70 or -1.9%
Questions, anyone, left over from last week's trading? This week answered all mysteries.
The US DOLLAR did not have a good week, losing a colossal 170 basis points. The weekly chart looks awfully double-toppy with the March 2009 peak and the June 2010 peak, but remember that a trend in force remains in force until violated, so the dollar is still trending up, although presently in a downward correction.
Let us ponder dollar possibilities. Presently the buck is below its 20 day moving average (86.83) at 85.578, having dropped another 11 basis points today. Next support lies at 85-85.30, and at the 50 DMA at 84.52. Thereafter only air intervenes until 82.25. If the dollar violates its 50 DMA, then its intermediate trend has changed from up to down. Otherwise, it still has a chance to hit 90 - 92. But first, more downside.
STOCKS are clinging to the cliff of decision: should we jump off to doom, or walk through the air into the sky? They have just this week climbed above their 200 DMA at 10,335. Today the Dow closed at 10,450.64, up 16.47, while the S&P500 rose 1.47 to 1,117.51. Whether stocks stage another eye-popping rally or not, stay away from them. Stocks are in a primary down trend (bear market) that will last another 6 years or more. Want to de-capitalize yourself? Buy stocks!
Oddly, though, the Dow in Gold Dollars has remained about the same frustrating level last two days. Early in May it fell through its uptrend line about $G$191.27 (9.252 oz) and plummeted straight down to a low at G$163.74 (7.92 oz). It has since rallied to G$175.04 (8.468 oz) and fallen back last two days to G$171.78 & G$171.84 (8.313 oz). Double closes often signal a trend change or a market out of gas. Given gold's strength, stocks had better pull over at the next gas station.
SILVER rose 5.2% this week, about twice as much as gold. Need I say more? Well, I'm going to.
From that bogus low on 4 June at 17.29 silver in ten (10) days has risen 188.5c or 11% [sic]. The gold/silver ratio has fallen from 70.382 to 65.565, down an enormous 4.817 or 6.8%. Silver has now proven to my satisfaction that June 4 was an anomaly, an artefact, a manipulation, or a fluke. Today it rose 40.8c to close 1917.5. This is a bodacious breakout.
The Gold/Silver ratio, remember, is the price of gold divided by the price of silver, or how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold. Over the course of a precious metals bull market that ratio falls, meaning silver rises faster than gold over the life of the whole bull market, although not every day or even for long stretches. Today at 65.565 the ratio is about to fall through its 300 day moving average (65.37) and 50 DMA 965.29). It already stands below the 20 day moving average tripwire (66.9). The 200 DMA awaits at 64.03. Once the ratio breaks through that mark it will slide fast, as that roughly coincides with the bottom border of a triangle pattern. First target then will be 60.6784 (last low), and ultimately 47.5 for this rally.
Be advised that at 47.5:1 I recommend swapping silver for gold according to my silver/gold swapping strategy.
What a dirty job I had to do today! Had to reset the scale on all my gold price charts since gold burst through $1250 today to a new $1,257.20, up $9.70. On the GLD ETF chart gold made a double gap last two days and is above its old highs. This is a runaway breakout. The GDX gold stock index also double gapped, as did SLV, the silver ETF. (Thanks, Bob, for pointing these out.) As I said yesterday, there are no triple tops, only two taps and a breakthrough, and that' what gold did today. The bull market that has climbed a wall of worry from 1045 in February has now crashed through the fence and is running wild on a rampage. I can only repeat what I wrote yesterday: always buy the breakouts.
The gold price has now entered that wave of a bull market where the craziest and most unpredictable events happen, and all the surprises occur to the upside. Silver price is a little out of sync with gold, a little behind. First it must beat that last top at $19.81 intraday then march on to conquer the March 2008 peak at $20.67 (close). Target for this move in silver is $29.00. I understand that sounds ridiculous, now, but won't sound ridiculous then.
This is what we have been patiently waiting for: the wild bull ride has begun. If you have not already bought silver and gold, you had better buy quickly or be forever left standing at the station.
On this day in 1812 the US declared war on Great Britain, angered over British imprisonments of US sailors, and, maybe a little bit wanting to conquer Canada. In August, 1814 the British cordially returned the favour by invading Washington and burning down the Capitol and White House. Little Jimmy Madison fled, and Dolly his wife had time only to save the White House drapes and some silverware. Having killed a bunch of folks for no good purpose, the US and Great Britain signed a peace treaty on 24 December 1814. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your outlook) word did not reach either American forces in the West or British forces in the gulf. In January the British invaded near New Orleans and were met by Tennessee volunteers (and a sprinkling of Kentuckians, to be fair) under General Andrew Jackson, who whipped 'em bad on the ninth of January 1815. I feel really bad about the British getting beaten like that. I wonder if we could make it up to them by letting them burn down the Capitol and the White House again. Goodness, I'd even throw in all those government office buildings, too, just for good measure. Oh, and don't forget the IRS building.
On this day in 1178 just after sunset five monks at Canterbury witnessed the moon explode in flames. Gervase of Canterbury reported they were looking at a new crescent moon when the upper part "suddenly split in two. From the midpoint of this division a flaming torch sprang up, spewing out fire, hot coals, and sparks. The body of the moon which was below writhed and throbbed like a wounded snake. Some today doubt the report, others say it was caused by a meteor striking the moon.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Silver and Gold Prices Proved Their Breakout Today with Strong Rises
Gold Price Close Today : 1247.50
Change: 18.20 or 1.5%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.767
Change 33.5 cents or 1.8%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1576.30
Change: 6.90 or 0.4%
Palladium Price Close Today: 480.35
Change: 6.30 or 1.3%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.47
Change: -0.221 or -0.3%
Dow Industrial: 10,366.83
Change: -42.63 or -0.4%
US Dollar Index: 85.67
Change: -0.42 or -0.5%
A reader writes me that the great Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters had to undergo an emergency appendectomy, and urged me to pray for him. I'll gladly do that, as I have learned so much at his hand through his newsletters.
After yesterday's final kiss good-bye, SILVER and GOLD PRICES proved their breakout today with strong rises.
Gold rose $18.20 to $1,247.50. That is a new all-time high, besting the 8 June close at $1,244. Since triple tops don't exist, we can expect gold to burst the bonds of earth tomorrow and begin flying. By the way, it gapped up today, and that most likely
is a "breakaway gap."
SILVER rose 33.5c to 18.767. Okay, that's not quite 18.80, but I reckon close enough, and that rise confirms gold's, although it certainly doesn't reach a new all time high. Ratio stands at 66.473, and must drop to confirm the rally.
As I said, "buy the breakouts" is a sound strategy in bull markets. You either buy the dips to support, or the breakouts.
A close by gold below $1,228.00 and silver below 18.30 would gainsay the rally I expect, but I doubt that will happen. Gold right now is targeting $1,375 and silver $30.00.
That 85.90 support for the DOLLAR INDEX gave way today after the buck tried to rise to 86.52 overnight. Sellers jumped on that like a duck on a squash bug, and from 3 a.m. EDT to 6 a.m. the dollar relentlessly rolled down hill, stopping at last at 85.60. Around 10 a.m. it tried to rally but reached 85.90, which had been support but then became resistance, and was slapped again. Now trading at 85.665, down 41.8 basis points, and destined for yet more investigation of "SUDA", Sudden Unexplained Downside Acceleration. First support here remains at 85 - 85.40.
STOCKS fell today, the Dow by 42.63 to 10,366.83 and the S&P500 by 4.92 to 1,109.69. Stocks are at a watershed, and could rally much higher or fall at once, but long term
they are a corpse already. Get away, & stay away, let the dead bury the dead.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: 18.20 or 1.5%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.767
Change 33.5 cents or 1.8%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1576.30
Change: 6.90 or 0.4%
Palladium Price Close Today: 480.35
Change: 6.30 or 1.3%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.47
Change: -0.221 or -0.3%
Dow Industrial: 10,366.83
Change: -42.63 or -0.4%
US Dollar Index: 85.67
Change: -0.42 or -0.5%
A reader writes me that the great Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters had to undergo an emergency appendectomy, and urged me to pray for him. I'll gladly do that, as I have learned so much at his hand through his newsletters.
After yesterday's final kiss good-bye, SILVER and GOLD PRICES proved their breakout today with strong rises.
Gold rose $18.20 to $1,247.50. That is a new all-time high, besting the 8 June close at $1,244. Since triple tops don't exist, we can expect gold to burst the bonds of earth tomorrow and begin flying. By the way, it gapped up today, and that most likely
is a "breakaway gap."
SILVER rose 33.5c to 18.767. Okay, that's not quite 18.80, but I reckon close enough, and that rise confirms gold's, although it certainly doesn't reach a new all time high. Ratio stands at 66.473, and must drop to confirm the rally.
As I said, "buy the breakouts" is a sound strategy in bull markets. You either buy the dips to support, or the breakouts.
A close by gold below $1,228.00 and silver below 18.30 would gainsay the rally I expect, but I doubt that will happen. Gold right now is targeting $1,375 and silver $30.00.
That 85.90 support for the DOLLAR INDEX gave way today after the buck tried to rise to 86.52 overnight. Sellers jumped on that like a duck on a squash bug, and from 3 a.m. EDT to 6 a.m. the dollar relentlessly rolled down hill, stopping at last at 85.60. Around 10 a.m. it tried to rally but reached 85.90, which had been support but then became resistance, and was slapped again. Now trading at 85.665, down 41.8 basis points, and destined for yet more investigation of "SUDA", Sudden Unexplained Downside Acceleration. First support here remains at 85 - 85.40.
STOCKS fell today, the Dow by 42.63 to 10,366.83 and the S&P500 by 4.92 to 1,109.69. Stocks are at a watershed, and could rally much higher or fall at once, but long term
they are a corpse already. Get away, & stay away, let the dead bury the dead.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Gold Price is Merely Touching Back to the Starting Line Before Taking Off
Gold Price Close Today : 1229.30
Change: -3.90 or -0.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.432
Change -13.7 cents or -0.7%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1569.90
Change: 9.10 or 0.6%
Palladium Price Close Today: 474.05
Change: 14.75 or 3.2%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.69
Change: 0.282 or 0.4%
Dow Industrial: 10,409.40
Change: 4.69 or 0.0%
US Dollar Index: 86.14
Change: 0.16 or 0.2%
I apologize for the tardiness of yesterday's commentary, but I have Wildblue.net's satellite internet, and this is the stormy season. Late in the day thunderstorms arise and cloud our skies so the radio waves cannot prise their way skyward to realize their transmission. Hence, your commentary did not digitize.
STOCKS couldn't make up their mind today. Some indices rose, others fell. Dow spent half the day down nearly 75 points, rose to unchanged at noon, oscillated around unchanged, and at last close up a Magnificent 4.69 points, which is almost visible from 8 inches away, but hardly visible from outer space. S&P closed down 0.62 at 1,114.61. Rally hath run out of fuel. Stay out of stocks, if you value your capital.
The US DOLLAR INDEX for two days has bumpety-bumped along 86 with a low about 85.90. 'Tis probably about time for that support to give way. Dollar rallied today from 80.90 low to 86.40, but this inspired no one. It's under the 20 day moving average, suspended over empty space, supported only by a far distant 50 DMA at 84.35, and whispered support at 85. Dollar will lose more unless it can close above 87.
The GOLD PRICE fell on the Comex $3.90 to close at $1,229.30. That's really not bad, because there is an established string of closes above $1,228, so hanging on here looks like gold is merely touching back to the starting line before taking off. Of course, that also means gold must not drop below $1,228.
The SILVER PRICE remains in the uptrend established since 4 June. Friday, and will remain as long as it doesn't close below 18.29, the 50 DMA. Precarious is silver's present stance with a preceding top at 18.70 (intraday) and last top 18.68. today on Comex silver fell 13.7c to close 18.432. Silver's big hurdle remains 18.80.
Inspired no doubt by silver's luster, a reader went to www.stockcharts.com and clicked on silver's point and figure chart, something I don't check regularly. It listed the upside target for silver at 29.00. That's music to my ears.
The elder is blooming around here, and have loosed their spicy perfume throughout the world. Nights are magical in Tennessee summers.
On this day in 1456, 25 years after being burned at the stake, Joan of Arc was exonerated of the heresy charge by King Charles VII of France. French courts apparently move pretty slowly.
On this date in 1567 Mary, Queen of Scots, was imprisoned in Lochleven Castle in Scotland. Somebody was always imprisoning Mary, maybe because she was always secretly plotting to overthrow somebody's government, even her own.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: -3.90 or -0.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.432
Change -13.7 cents or -0.7%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1569.90
Change: 9.10 or 0.6%
Palladium Price Close Today: 474.05
Change: 14.75 or 3.2%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.69
Change: 0.282 or 0.4%
Dow Industrial: 10,409.40
Change: 4.69 or 0.0%
US Dollar Index: 86.14
Change: 0.16 or 0.2%
I apologize for the tardiness of yesterday's commentary, but I have Wildblue.net's satellite internet, and this is the stormy season. Late in the day thunderstorms arise and cloud our skies so the radio waves cannot prise their way skyward to realize their transmission. Hence, your commentary did not digitize.
STOCKS couldn't make up their mind today. Some indices rose, others fell. Dow spent half the day down nearly 75 points, rose to unchanged at noon, oscillated around unchanged, and at last close up a Magnificent 4.69 points, which is almost visible from 8 inches away, but hardly visible from outer space. S&P closed down 0.62 at 1,114.61. Rally hath run out of fuel. Stay out of stocks, if you value your capital.
The US DOLLAR INDEX for two days has bumpety-bumped along 86 with a low about 85.90. 'Tis probably about time for that support to give way. Dollar rallied today from 80.90 low to 86.40, but this inspired no one. It's under the 20 day moving average, suspended over empty space, supported only by a far distant 50 DMA at 84.35, and whispered support at 85. Dollar will lose more unless it can close above 87.
The GOLD PRICE fell on the Comex $3.90 to close at $1,229.30. That's really not bad, because there is an established string of closes above $1,228, so hanging on here looks like gold is merely touching back to the starting line before taking off. Of course, that also means gold must not drop below $1,228.
The SILVER PRICE remains in the uptrend established since 4 June. Friday, and will remain as long as it doesn't close below 18.29, the 50 DMA. Precarious is silver's present stance with a preceding top at 18.70 (intraday) and last top 18.68. today on Comex silver fell 13.7c to close 18.432. Silver's big hurdle remains 18.80.
Inspired no doubt by silver's luster, a reader went to www.stockcharts.com and clicked on silver's point and figure chart, something I don't check regularly. It listed the upside target for silver at 29.00. That's music to my ears.
The elder is blooming around here, and have loosed their spicy perfume throughout the world. Nights are magical in Tennessee summers.
On this day in 1456, 25 years after being burned at the stake, Joan of Arc was exonerated of the heresy charge by King Charles VII of France. French courts apparently move pretty slowly.
On this date in 1567 Mary, Queen of Scots, was imprisoned in Lochleven Castle in Scotland. Somebody was always imprisoning Mary, maybe because she was always secretly plotting to overthrow somebody's government, even her own.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Gold and Silver Must Confirm this Breakout With Closes Above Earlier Resistance, Namely, $1,250 and 18.50
Gold Price Close Today : 1233.20
Change: 9.90 or 0.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.569
Change 16.7 cents or 0.9%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1560.80
Change: 26.50 or 1.7%
Palladium Price Close Today: 459.30
Change: 12.85 or 2.9%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.41
Change: -0.065 or -0.1%
Dow Industrial: 10,404.77
Change: 213.88 or 2.1%
US Dollar Index: 86.04
Change: -0.47 or -0.5%
As if to laugh in my face after yesterday's comments, the Dow rallied today 213.88 to 10,404.77. S&P500 rose 25.6 to 1,115.23. Well, it mattereth not. You can't miss if you ain't shooting and I am not aiming at the Dow. If don't care if the Dow glows cherry red and throws off white hot sparks, I know every rally is a bear market trap for bulls, luring them into the den to devour their money and crack their bones. Leave me out!
The US DOLLAR INDEX fainted today as expected. It fell 46.8 basis points to 86.043, portentously close to 86 and a big plunge. Support lurks somewhere in the depths between 85.40 and 85. Look out below!
GOLD & SILVER made the first steps of an upside breakout today. Confirmation awaits closes above $1,250 and 1850c.
Gold began the day stretching its legs at $1,220, then strapped on its climbing shoes and headed straight up a rock wall. It never stopped till it reached $1,236.60. On Comex it closed at the high end of the range, up 9.90 at $1,233.20. In the after market it is bobbing around $1,235. What signifieth this close? First, it breaches
resistance from $1,228 to $1,230. Second, it clearly breaks the existing downtrend.
Next target? $1,250.
Don't miss the main point of silver's performance today: it closed on Comex above 1850c, up in fact 16.7c at 1856.9, and trading at 1857c in the aftermarket. Silver now has a breakout confirmed by three days trading. What more can you ask?
My friend Bob the Technical Genius called today & opened my eyes to the three year silver chart. The chart implies that silver has finished a 3 year head in shoulders or V-pattern with an implied run of $10 from the breakout point about 1980c. Yes, that means "add 1000c to 1980c -- and what do you get? Assuming gold reaches the targeted $1,375, that gives a ratio target at 45.83:1. Mercy.
But cautious, cautious. First metals must confirm this breakout with closes above earlier resistance, namely, $1,250 & 1850c. This is no time to be sitting idly on the sidelines: you buy the breakouts.
Once again, my satellite Internet is down, so my comments will be short. I only hope they can go out to you this evening.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: 9.90 or 0.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.569
Change 16.7 cents or 0.9%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1560.80
Change: 26.50 or 1.7%
Palladium Price Close Today: 459.30
Change: 12.85 or 2.9%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.41
Change: -0.065 or -0.1%
Dow Industrial: 10,404.77
Change: 213.88 or 2.1%
US Dollar Index: 86.04
Change: -0.47 or -0.5%
As if to laugh in my face after yesterday's comments, the Dow rallied today 213.88 to 10,404.77. S&P500 rose 25.6 to 1,115.23. Well, it mattereth not. You can't miss if you ain't shooting and I am not aiming at the Dow. If don't care if the Dow glows cherry red and throws off white hot sparks, I know every rally is a bear market trap for bulls, luring them into the den to devour their money and crack their bones. Leave me out!
The US DOLLAR INDEX fainted today as expected. It fell 46.8 basis points to 86.043, portentously close to 86 and a big plunge. Support lurks somewhere in the depths between 85.40 and 85. Look out below!
GOLD & SILVER made the first steps of an upside breakout today. Confirmation awaits closes above $1,250 and 1850c.
Gold began the day stretching its legs at $1,220, then strapped on its climbing shoes and headed straight up a rock wall. It never stopped till it reached $1,236.60. On Comex it closed at the high end of the range, up 9.90 at $1,233.20. In the after market it is bobbing around $1,235. What signifieth this close? First, it breaches
resistance from $1,228 to $1,230. Second, it clearly breaks the existing downtrend.
Next target? $1,250.
Don't miss the main point of silver's performance today: it closed on Comex above 1850c, up in fact 16.7c at 1856.9, and trading at 1857c in the aftermarket. Silver now has a breakout confirmed by three days trading. What more can you ask?
My friend Bob the Technical Genius called today & opened my eyes to the three year silver chart. The chart implies that silver has finished a 3 year head in shoulders or V-pattern with an implied run of $10 from the breakout point about 1980c. Yes, that means "add 1000c to 1980c -- and what do you get? Assuming gold reaches the targeted $1,375, that gives a ratio target at 45.83:1. Mercy.
But cautious, cautious. First metals must confirm this breakout with closes above earlier resistance, namely, $1,250 & 1850c. This is no time to be sitting idly on the sidelines: you buy the breakouts.
Once again, my satellite Internet is down, so my comments will be short. I only hope they can go out to you this evening.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Monday, June 14, 2010
These Non-Confirmations Often Occur Before Big Moves, Up or Down in the Gold Price.
Gold Price Close Today : 1223.30
Change: -5.60 or -0.5%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.402
Change 18.0 cents or 1.0%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1560.80
Change: 26.50 or 1.7%
Palladium Price Close Today: 459.30
Change: 12.85 or 2.9%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.48
Change: -0.964 or -1.4%
Dow Industrial: 10,190.89
Change: -20.18 or -0.2%
US Dollar Index: 86.60
Change: -0.31 or -0.4%
For the third day running SILVER and GOLD PRICES are contradicting each other. Thursday the SILVER PRICE closed up and the GOLD PRICE closed down; Friday the gold price rose and the silver price fell, and today gold fell 5.60 to $1,223.30 while silver rose 18c to $18.402. These non-confirmations often occur before big moves, up or down. They show great force below and above, wrestling for mastery. Suddenly one or the other will give way, sending prices shooting. As I said Friday, I expect the stalemate to resolve by silver and gold prices moving higher.
The dollar Index spent Thursday and Friday bouncing off 87. As often happens, it bounced off one time too many, and fell through. Today it opened just under 87, and just kept on falling until it hit 86.18. After that low it recovered to 86.60 now, down 30.8 basis points.
The Dollar Index broke its 20 day moving average (86.93) today, so it is saying that it will go lower. This correction may be short term affair and stop at only 85 - 85.40. Then again, it might be a longer term correction and drop all the way to 83-83.35. The Dollars' behaviour at 85- 85.40 will signal us which outcome to expect.
The Dow reached 10,329, but those gains were far too slippery for its weak and trembling fingers: it couldn't hold on. All those gains slipped out of its hands and it dropped another 20.18 points besides to close at 10,190.89. S&P500 fell also, down 1.97 to 1,089.63.
Once again, my satellite Internet is down, so my comments will be short. I only hope they can go out to you this evening.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: -5.60 or -0.5%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.402
Change 18.0 cents or 1.0%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1560.80
Change: 26.50 or 1.7%
Palladium Price Close Today: 459.30
Change: 12.85 or 2.9%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.48
Change: -0.964 or -1.4%
Dow Industrial: 10,190.89
Change: -20.18 or -0.2%
US Dollar Index: 86.60
Change: -0.31 or -0.4%
For the third day running SILVER and GOLD PRICES are contradicting each other. Thursday the SILVER PRICE closed up and the GOLD PRICE closed down; Friday the gold price rose and the silver price fell, and today gold fell 5.60 to $1,223.30 while silver rose 18c to $18.402. These non-confirmations often occur before big moves, up or down. They show great force below and above, wrestling for mastery. Suddenly one or the other will give way, sending prices shooting. As I said Friday, I expect the stalemate to resolve by silver and gold prices moving higher.
The dollar Index spent Thursday and Friday bouncing off 87. As often happens, it bounced off one time too many, and fell through. Today it opened just under 87, and just kept on falling until it hit 86.18. After that low it recovered to 86.60 now, down 30.8 basis points.
The Dollar Index broke its 20 day moving average (86.93) today, so it is saying that it will go lower. This correction may be short term affair and stop at only 85 - 85.40. Then again, it might be a longer term correction and drop all the way to 83-83.35. The Dollars' behaviour at 85- 85.40 will signal us which outcome to expect.
The Dow reached 10,329, but those gains were far too slippery for its weak and trembling fingers: it couldn't hold on. All those gains slipped out of its hands and it dropped another 20.18 points besides to close at 10,190.89. S&P500 fell also, down 1.97 to 1,089.63.
Once again, my satellite Internet is down, so my comments will be short. I only hope they can go out to you this evening.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Silver and Gold are Both Moving Toward a Rally
Gold Price Close Today : 1,228.90
Gold Price Close June 4: 1,216.90
Change: 12 or 1.0%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.222
Silver Price Close June 4 : 17.29
Change 93.20 cents or 5.4%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1,534.30
Platinum Price Close June 4: 1,525.30
Change: 9.00 or 0.6%
Palladium Price Close Today: 446.45
Palladium Price Close June 4: 430.50
Change: 15.95 or 3.7%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 67.44
Gold Silver Ratio June 4: 70.38
Change: -2.94 or -4.2%
Dow Industrial: 10,211.07
Dow Industrial June 4: 9,931.97
Change: 279.10 or 2.8%
US Dollar Index: 87.277
US Dollar Index June 4: 88.274
Change: -1.00 or -1.1%
Sorry this is coming to you on Saturday rather than Friday, but yesterday was my once a year Friday with my sons & son-in-law on the Lake, so I couldn't hang around here.
This week's table shows dramatic changes from last week. Clearly gold and silver fended off attacks and regained all lost ground. Stocks even recovered in a Zombie rally, while the US dollar index lost 100 basis points.
Thursday and Friday the US DOLLAR INDEX may have found a bottom for its correction with 5 lows stopping at or just below 87. Dollar index has now nearly touched its 20 day moving average (86.91), which might satisfy a shallow correction. Intraday high has been 88.71, while the last major high in February 2009 was at 89.62. Does the dollar have 90, even 92, in sight? It might, but at least ought to reach 89.50 before turning down again. Moving averages on the weekly chart are bullish and getting bullisher but other indicators are strongly overbought. Let us be rational: this rally has nothing to do with the dollar's inherent strength, because it hath none. Like every fiat currency in the world (& that's all of 'em) the dollar is backed solely by confidence. Yes, that means that all fiat currencies are confidence games, & if those being conned -- the public -- catch on, they will not only be angry, they will jerk their support from fiat so fast it will make history -- big history.
So the dollar is not healthy, strong, attractive, it's only the best looking corpse in the morgue. In central-banking-land, I reckon they call that success.
STOCKS rallied large this week in a Zombie rally. Remember that with a Zombie, the walking dead, you are not so much amazed that he can't walk well, but that he can walk at all. So with stocks: I am not amazed that they rally weak or strong, but that they can rally at all, being already dead. I noticed reading Dr. Robt. McHugh at Main Line Investors, www.technicalindicatorindex.com (well worth the high subscription price) is warning of a possible waterfall crash in stocks. Internal indicators of market strength are absent in this latest "rally", which in my mind points to Nice Government Men. Shortly, shortly, millions of investors will begin to learn the meaning of the phrase "bear market rally" and to weep. Don't let yourself be counted among their teary number.
Last week Gold fell to the bottom of its range at $1,195, fended off all attackers, rallied back to $1,250 and a new all time intraday high, but fell back toward range-bottom. Step back from the chart and look at this. What do you see? First, a market that remains in an uptrend from November 2008, corrected from its December 2009
high, and resumed an uptrend in February. The drop last week constituted merely a routine correction in a steadfast uptrend.
Quo vadis? Whither from here? Gold may bow to its seasonal pattern of June-July weakness and trade range-bound sideways for the next 45-60 days. Frustrating, but not the world's end. What would gainsay this? Any close below $1,190, followed by a close
below $1,160. Any break of $1,160 takes gold down for a terrible beating. Upside, any close over $1,247 sets gold on the upward trajectory of a rally that will not stop of $1,375. Remember that markets delight in surprising and catching everyone
off guard with the wholly unexpected. A summer gold rally would astonish everyone.
On Friday gold atoned for its lagging by rising 8.10 to close the week at $1,228.90. Down from the week's high, but still above support at $1200, $1,210, $1,215, and $1,225. Next resistance stretches from $1,235 to $1,240.
I was fighting off Nick Laird's silver pessimism hard last week, but he threw one punch that nearly knocked me out. (Nick runs www.sharelynx.com, home of the best charts in the universe.) He wrote me that the gold/silver ratio had broken out to the upside. Indeed, it had, over 70:1, but the next day it dropped back into the even-sided triangle and kept on trading down most of the week. Therefore I hasten to classify that upside move as a "false breakout" until proven otherwise.
Think of it. Other markets, including gold, dropped Thursday and Friday a week ago, but none broke their lower support boundary save silver. Yet as fast as it fell, it rose, regaining all its lost ground from 17.20 to 18.50. Okay, I'll admit silver then backed off some, but closed the week above crucial 18.00 support at 18.222, up 12c
Friday. Thursday and Friday sent mixed, bewildering signals. Thursday silver rose strongly while gold fell. Friday, silver fell slightly while gold rose strongly.
That's a non-confirmation, but of what? I say these metals are non-confirming downward moves, that is, the divergence points to strength at resistance levels, not weakness. My most sensitive silver indicator, the premium on US 90% silver coin, is shouting that silver will not drop further, and is about to make a leap up. As crazy and misplaced as it sounds in summer, silver and gold are both moving toward a rally.
I repeat, however, that any break below $1,190 and 17.50 would carry precious metals down much further. Silver's upside target now is 18.50, then 19.80. When silver clears 19.80 the whole world will be set aflame to buy it.
On 11 June 1859 the fabulous Comstock Silver Lode was discovered near Virginia City, Nevada. Since that time I've had to listen to ignorant commentators claim that the abundance of silver coming from the Comstock forced the world's nations to abandon silver in a wave of demonetizations that began in 1873 in the US. Bye-bye, Bi-metallism.
This argument is Washington-grade hogwash. In the first place, half the value of the Comstock came from gold production, so that couldn't affect the ratio. Second, since the California and Australian discoveries in the 1840s, gold had been flooding onto the market, driving silver's price up and silver out of circulation! From 1848
until 1873 (year of the demonetization, silver's price on the world market never came close to the US statutory price of $1.2929, but rose as high at $1.36. In my little book, a silver price persisting above $1.2929 for 25 years does not indicate silver in oversupply.
Yet that is the way the gold-only propagandists -- working for bankers and other government bond holders who pushed deflation to make their bonds & earnings more valuable -- convinced the world to abandon silver, and thus set the world up for
global fiat money. Remember that no honest monetary system can retain its integrity unless it has two safety valves, namely, silver valued against gold and gold valued against silver. Once the monometallic gold standard was adopted, and the "dollar"
defined as 0.48375 oz of gold, the fiat-money camel's nose pushed under the tent, and it was only a matter of time until the fiat camel would push gold, too, out of the tent.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Gold Price Close June 4: 1,216.90
Change: 12 or 1.0%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.222
Silver Price Close June 4 : 17.29
Change 93.20 cents or 5.4%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1,534.30
Platinum Price Close June 4: 1,525.30
Change: 9.00 or 0.6%
Palladium Price Close Today: 446.45
Palladium Price Close June 4: 430.50
Change: 15.95 or 3.7%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 67.44
Gold Silver Ratio June 4: 70.38
Change: -2.94 or -4.2%
Dow Industrial: 10,211.07
Dow Industrial June 4: 9,931.97
Change: 279.10 or 2.8%
US Dollar Index: 87.277
US Dollar Index June 4: 88.274
Change: -1.00 or -1.1%
Sorry this is coming to you on Saturday rather than Friday, but yesterday was my once a year Friday with my sons & son-in-law on the Lake, so I couldn't hang around here.
This week's table shows dramatic changes from last week. Clearly gold and silver fended off attacks and regained all lost ground. Stocks even recovered in a Zombie rally, while the US dollar index lost 100 basis points.
Thursday and Friday the US DOLLAR INDEX may have found a bottom for its correction with 5 lows stopping at or just below 87. Dollar index has now nearly touched its 20 day moving average (86.91), which might satisfy a shallow correction. Intraday high has been 88.71, while the last major high in February 2009 was at 89.62. Does the dollar have 90, even 92, in sight? It might, but at least ought to reach 89.50 before turning down again. Moving averages on the weekly chart are bullish and getting bullisher but other indicators are strongly overbought. Let us be rational: this rally has nothing to do with the dollar's inherent strength, because it hath none. Like every fiat currency in the world (& that's all of 'em) the dollar is backed solely by confidence. Yes, that means that all fiat currencies are confidence games, & if those being conned -- the public -- catch on, they will not only be angry, they will jerk their support from fiat so fast it will make history -- big history.
So the dollar is not healthy, strong, attractive, it's only the best looking corpse in the morgue. In central-banking-land, I reckon they call that success.
STOCKS rallied large this week in a Zombie rally. Remember that with a Zombie, the walking dead, you are not so much amazed that he can't walk well, but that he can walk at all. So with stocks: I am not amazed that they rally weak or strong, but that they can rally at all, being already dead. I noticed reading Dr. Robt. McHugh at Main Line Investors, www.technicalindicatorindex.com (well worth the high subscription price) is warning of a possible waterfall crash in stocks. Internal indicators of market strength are absent in this latest "rally", which in my mind points to Nice Government Men. Shortly, shortly, millions of investors will begin to learn the meaning of the phrase "bear market rally" and to weep. Don't let yourself be counted among their teary number.
Last week Gold fell to the bottom of its range at $1,195, fended off all attackers, rallied back to $1,250 and a new all time intraday high, but fell back toward range-bottom. Step back from the chart and look at this. What do you see? First, a market that remains in an uptrend from November 2008, corrected from its December 2009
high, and resumed an uptrend in February. The drop last week constituted merely a routine correction in a steadfast uptrend.
Quo vadis? Whither from here? Gold may bow to its seasonal pattern of June-July weakness and trade range-bound sideways for the next 45-60 days. Frustrating, but not the world's end. What would gainsay this? Any close below $1,190, followed by a close
below $1,160. Any break of $1,160 takes gold down for a terrible beating. Upside, any close over $1,247 sets gold on the upward trajectory of a rally that will not stop of $1,375. Remember that markets delight in surprising and catching everyone
off guard with the wholly unexpected. A summer gold rally would astonish everyone.
On Friday gold atoned for its lagging by rising 8.10 to close the week at $1,228.90. Down from the week's high, but still above support at $1200, $1,210, $1,215, and $1,225. Next resistance stretches from $1,235 to $1,240.
I was fighting off Nick Laird's silver pessimism hard last week, but he threw one punch that nearly knocked me out. (Nick runs www.sharelynx.com, home of the best charts in the universe.) He wrote me that the gold/silver ratio had broken out to the upside. Indeed, it had, over 70:1, but the next day it dropped back into the even-sided triangle and kept on trading down most of the week. Therefore I hasten to classify that upside move as a "false breakout" until proven otherwise.
Think of it. Other markets, including gold, dropped Thursday and Friday a week ago, but none broke their lower support boundary save silver. Yet as fast as it fell, it rose, regaining all its lost ground from 17.20 to 18.50. Okay, I'll admit silver then backed off some, but closed the week above crucial 18.00 support at 18.222, up 12c
Friday. Thursday and Friday sent mixed, bewildering signals. Thursday silver rose strongly while gold fell. Friday, silver fell slightly while gold rose strongly.
That's a non-confirmation, but of what? I say these metals are non-confirming downward moves, that is, the divergence points to strength at resistance levels, not weakness. My most sensitive silver indicator, the premium on US 90% silver coin, is shouting that silver will not drop further, and is about to make a leap up. As crazy and misplaced as it sounds in summer, silver and gold are both moving toward a rally.
I repeat, however, that any break below $1,190 and 17.50 would carry precious metals down much further. Silver's upside target now is 18.50, then 19.80. When silver clears 19.80 the whole world will be set aflame to buy it.
On 11 June 1859 the fabulous Comstock Silver Lode was discovered near Virginia City, Nevada. Since that time I've had to listen to ignorant commentators claim that the abundance of silver coming from the Comstock forced the world's nations to abandon silver in a wave of demonetizations that began in 1873 in the US. Bye-bye, Bi-metallism.
This argument is Washington-grade hogwash. In the first place, half the value of the Comstock came from gold production, so that couldn't affect the ratio. Second, since the California and Australian discoveries in the 1840s, gold had been flooding onto the market, driving silver's price up and silver out of circulation! From 1848
until 1873 (year of the demonetization, silver's price on the world market never came close to the US statutory price of $1.2929, but rose as high at $1.36. In my little book, a silver price persisting above $1.2929 for 25 years does not indicate silver in oversupply.
Yet that is the way the gold-only propagandists -- working for bankers and other government bond holders who pushed deflation to make their bonds & earnings more valuable -- convinced the world to abandon silver, and thus set the world up for
global fiat money. Remember that no honest monetary system can retain its integrity unless it has two safety valves, namely, silver valued against gold and gold valued against silver. Once the monometallic gold standard was adopted, and the "dollar"
defined as 0.48375 oz of gold, the fiat-money camel's nose pushed under the tent, and it was only a matter of time until the fiat camel would push gold, too, out of the tent.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Silver and Gold Prices Stand on the Brink of a Spectacular Breakout
Gold Price Close Today : 1220.80
Change: -7.70 or -0.6%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.342
Change 16.2 cents or 0.9%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1533.00
Change: 3.80 or 0.2%
Palladium Price Close Today: 449.50
Change: -0.25 or -0.1%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.56
Change: -1.017 or -1.5%
Dow Industrial: 10,172.53
Change: 272.38 or 2.8%
US Dollar Index: 87.11
Change: -0.79 or -0.9%
Sorry yesterday's comments were so short, but I live waaaay out in the country, and have only satellite internet. When the clouds cover us, it worketh not. Yesterday a mighty thunderstorm blackened the sky.
The GOLD PRICE fell today while the SILVER PRICE rose. Mercy, what a knot! Gold today fell 7.70 to close on Comex down 7.70 to $1,220.80. Gold continues in the correction begun Tuesday, but I have to admit that to me it looks stronger and stronger, never mind that lower close today. It drops, then springs immediately back. The chart says that if the gold price holds $1215 it will not drop further. Today with a $1,217-ish low gold nearly touched its 20 day moving average (now $1,215). Gold often descends to that line, then turns around. Perhaps it will repeat that performance this time as well? Back off from the gold chart and you will at once perceive that the uptrend begun in February from $1,045 (intraday) containus uninterrupted. Nearer in time, the last low at $1,166.50 in May did no more than fall to the uptrend line. Gold could fall to $1,190 tomorrow and remain still within the uptrend. And of course, "A trend in force remains in force until violated." Oh, and once gold breaks out of this consolidation -- oh, my, do not stand in its way, unless you want to be flattened like a pancake. The breakout will not break out, it will explode. And yes, yes, I remember this is time for gold's seasonal lows so it might trade sideways in a tight range until early August, but the strength is there, and before too long it will express itself.
It is very dangerous to make excuses for any market's performance, because that implies you are "talking your position," i.e., lying to yourself and ignoring the facts because of your pre-existing bias. Nonetheless at rare times, it is true, anomalies do occur in markets. For example, that that huge spike in the gold/silver ratio that happened in fall 2008 (which did NOT occur in physicals' prices but only in paper prices) was an anomaly caused by a once in 200 year financial panic. That said, a friend of mine more technically gifted by far than I am, called today to discuss that $17.20 downspike in silver last Monday. Looking at the gold charts and others, that simply appears to be an anomaly, unexplained by what we know and caused by something we don't know. Remember that it gave an upside breakout signal to the gold/silver ratio, but then failed to follow through and thus proved itself a false breakout.
And LO! How did silver recover from that blow? By climbing straight up like a fly on a wall. Now silver's stronger performance that gold today non-confirms gold's weakness. On Comex silver rose 16.2c to $18.342.
I continue to exspect that silver and gold stand on the brink of a spectacular breakout. A silver close below $17.80 and gold below $1,190 would knock all that in the head with a sledge hammer.
The US DOLLAR INDEX is rolling down a hill. Lost another 79 basis points today to 87.107. As long as it remains above 85.00 it will still be riding an uptrend. Remember that all fiat currency values are artificial. The scrofulous US dollar is not one bit more valuable or sounder than the scabby Euro which is not one bit healthier than the pustulous Yen. They are all backed by confidence alone, and therefore subject always to crises. And all are jointly manipulated by their central bankers, who meet monthly in Basel at the Bank for International for supper and to discuss how they will jerk markets around in the coming month.
STOCKS rallied today, up nearly 3%. Dow closed 10,172.53, up 273.28 and the S&P500 rose 31.15 to 1,086.84. This is what seasoned traders call a "Haiti Rally" because it involves voodoo raising a zombie and making it walk. Very impressive: the corpse appears to be alive because it walks, but in fact it remains rat-dead. Those who are suckered by this rally -- how can I say it -- deserve their losses.
I talked to a banker friend today who told me that if all the bank real estate holdings in the country were marked to market they would lose fifty percent of their value. The last shoe has not yet dropped in the banking system debacle.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: -7.70 or -0.6%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.342
Change 16.2 cents or 0.9%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1533.00
Change: 3.80 or 0.2%
Palladium Price Close Today: 449.50
Change: -0.25 or -0.1%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.56
Change: -1.017 or -1.5%
Dow Industrial: 10,172.53
Change: 272.38 or 2.8%
US Dollar Index: 87.11
Change: -0.79 or -0.9%
Sorry yesterday's comments were so short, but I live waaaay out in the country, and have only satellite internet. When the clouds cover us, it worketh not. Yesterday a mighty thunderstorm blackened the sky.
The GOLD PRICE fell today while the SILVER PRICE rose. Mercy, what a knot! Gold today fell 7.70 to close on Comex down 7.70 to $1,220.80. Gold continues in the correction begun Tuesday, but I have to admit that to me it looks stronger and stronger, never mind that lower close today. It drops, then springs immediately back. The chart says that if the gold price holds $1215 it will not drop further. Today with a $1,217-ish low gold nearly touched its 20 day moving average (now $1,215). Gold often descends to that line, then turns around. Perhaps it will repeat that performance this time as well? Back off from the gold chart and you will at once perceive that the uptrend begun in February from $1,045 (intraday) containus uninterrupted. Nearer in time, the last low at $1,166.50 in May did no more than fall to the uptrend line. Gold could fall to $1,190 tomorrow and remain still within the uptrend. And of course, "A trend in force remains in force until violated." Oh, and once gold breaks out of this consolidation -- oh, my, do not stand in its way, unless you want to be flattened like a pancake. The breakout will not break out, it will explode. And yes, yes, I remember this is time for gold's seasonal lows so it might trade sideways in a tight range until early August, but the strength is there, and before too long it will express itself.
It is very dangerous to make excuses for any market's performance, because that implies you are "talking your position," i.e., lying to yourself and ignoring the facts because of your pre-existing bias. Nonetheless at rare times, it is true, anomalies do occur in markets. For example, that that huge spike in the gold/silver ratio that happened in fall 2008 (which did NOT occur in physicals' prices but only in paper prices) was an anomaly caused by a once in 200 year financial panic. That said, a friend of mine more technically gifted by far than I am, called today to discuss that $17.20 downspike in silver last Monday. Looking at the gold charts and others, that simply appears to be an anomaly, unexplained by what we know and caused by something we don't know. Remember that it gave an upside breakout signal to the gold/silver ratio, but then failed to follow through and thus proved itself a false breakout.
And LO! How did silver recover from that blow? By climbing straight up like a fly on a wall. Now silver's stronger performance that gold today non-confirms gold's weakness. On Comex silver rose 16.2c to $18.342.
I continue to exspect that silver and gold stand on the brink of a spectacular breakout. A silver close below $17.80 and gold below $1,190 would knock all that in the head with a sledge hammer.
The US DOLLAR INDEX is rolling down a hill. Lost another 79 basis points today to 87.107. As long as it remains above 85.00 it will still be riding an uptrend. Remember that all fiat currency values are artificial. The scrofulous US dollar is not one bit more valuable or sounder than the scabby Euro which is not one bit healthier than the pustulous Yen. They are all backed by confidence alone, and therefore subject always to crises. And all are jointly manipulated by their central bankers, who meet monthly in Basel at the Bank for International for supper and to discuss how they will jerk markets around in the coming month.
STOCKS rallied today, up nearly 3%. Dow closed 10,172.53, up 273.28 and the S&P500 rose 31.15 to 1,086.84. This is what seasoned traders call a "Haiti Rally" because it involves voodoo raising a zombie and making it walk. Very impressive: the corpse appears to be alive because it walks, but in fact it remains rat-dead. Those who are suckered by this rally -- how can I say it -- deserve their losses.
I talked to a banker friend today who told me that if all the bank real estate holdings in the country were marked to market they would lose fifty percent of their value. The last shoe has not yet dropped in the banking system debacle.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
A Gold and Silver Price Correction is Underway
Gold Price Close Today : 1228.50
Change: -15.50 or -1.2%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.180
Change -28.8 cents or -1.6%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1529.20
Change: 19.60 or 1.3%
Palladium Price Close Today: 449.75
Change: 16.35 or 3.8%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 67.57
Change: 0.215 or 0.3%
Dow Industrial: 9,899.25
Change: -40.73 or -0.4%
US Dollar Index: 87.91
Change: -0.48 or -0.5%
Interesting: today gold and the dollar both fell. The gold price held on until after the London Fix and the morning open in the US, then about 10:00 began falling. It remains above support that runs from $1,220 to $1,225 roughly. This correction was the most likely outcome of yesterday's riddle. Breaks into new high territory that back off the same day are usually followed by declines.
The silver price dropped 28.8c to 18.18 on Comex. That support around 18.10-18.15 remains intact.
In the metals a correction is underway. They would have to rise to $1,250 and $19.00 to gainsay that. Meanwhile below keep on watching $1200-1190 and $18.00 - $17.20.
The DOLLAR INDEX continued its declension today, dropping a meaty 48 basis points to 87.914, below 88. Looks like correction will last a few days.
Stocks slacked off again today. They tried to rally, but just could not sustain any gains. Dow closed 9,899.25, down 40.73, while S&P500 dropped 6.31, down 1,055.69. If you remain in stocks, your bones will be picked clean.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: -15.50 or -1.2%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.180
Change -28.8 cents or -1.6%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1529.20
Change: 19.60 or 1.3%
Palladium Price Close Today: 449.75
Change: 16.35 or 3.8%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 67.57
Change: 0.215 or 0.3%
Dow Industrial: 9,899.25
Change: -40.73 or -0.4%
US Dollar Index: 87.91
Change: -0.48 or -0.5%
Interesting: today gold and the dollar both fell. The gold price held on until after the London Fix and the morning open in the US, then about 10:00 began falling. It remains above support that runs from $1,220 to $1,225 roughly. This correction was the most likely outcome of yesterday's riddle. Breaks into new high territory that back off the same day are usually followed by declines.
The silver price dropped 28.8c to 18.18 on Comex. That support around 18.10-18.15 remains intact.
In the metals a correction is underway. They would have to rise to $1,250 and $19.00 to gainsay that. Meanwhile below keep on watching $1200-1190 and $18.00 - $17.20.
The DOLLAR INDEX continued its declension today, dropping a meaty 48 basis points to 87.914, below 88. Looks like correction will last a few days.
Stocks slacked off again today. They tried to rally, but just could not sustain any gains. Dow closed 9,899.25, down 40.73, while S&P500 dropped 6.31, down 1,055.69. If you remain in stocks, your bones will be picked clean.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
The Gold Price Made a New All Time Intraday High at $1251.80
Gold Price Close Today : 1244.00
Change: 4.70 or 0.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.468
Change 31.5 cents or 1.7%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1520.00
Change: 10.40 or 0.7%
Palladium Price Close Today: 439.60
Change: 6.20 or 1.4%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 67.36
Change: -0.910 or -1.3%
Dow Industrial: 9,934.85
Change: 118.36 or 1.2%
US Dollar Index: 88.12
Change: -0.29 or -0.3%
The last two days have trapped the US DOLLAR INDEX in a range from 88.5 to 88.00. Right now it is trading 88.115, down 29 basis points. The dollar is either topping or
consolidating. I pick "consolidating" because it has a target of at least 89.5.
STOCKS rallied today, carrying the Dow up 118.36 to 9,934.85 . (S&P rose 11.52 to 1,061.99.) 'Twas no surprise since stocks were very oversold yesterday. Yet, these heaves are merely the febrile thrashings of the doomed upon death's bed. Stocks now are certificates of guaranteed loss.
Yesterday the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports both made new lows. That is a Dow Theory signal that the trend has turned down. Bet not against such signals.
Today the GOLD PRICE made a new all-time intraday high at $1,251.80, but closed on Comex up only 4.70 at $1,244. That is higher than the last all-time high (which are coming now once a month) at $1,242.70 on 12 May. However, in the aftermarket gold is trading down about eight bucks at $1,237. That's never an encouraging move, for a market to trade down after a new high.
Upon the face of the six-month chart lieth a riddle: double top (with correction to follow), or rally further? I am inclined to expect a correction, but as long as gold holds above $1,230, it will move higher. Seasonally gold shouldn't be trading this well in June, but there it is. Sometimes reality defies our patterns & expectations.
Silver is not quite synchronized to gold. Today it climbed the ladder high enough to knock on the 1850c door, but settled on Comex up 31.5c at 1846.8c. Now it is trading at 1830c. As long as silver remains higher than 1820c, 'twill keep advancing. A close below that, or an intraday break of 1800c sends silver lower.
All sorts of voices are trashing silver now. Well, a bull market climbs a wall of worry. Besides, everybody's always quick to write silver off. It's the Rodney Dangerfield of investments. True, falling stocks create a downward pull on silver. Don't ask me why, silver just tends to trade in the same direction as stocks -- until it doesn't.
Yet silver's chart says it has completed a down-up-down correction from the last high at 1981 (intraday), revisited its 200 day moving average, and is now ready to fly again. Don't complain to me, I'm only reporting what I observe.
Recurring to yesterday's musing about these wide swings in silver & gold, hedge funds with their sharkish behaviour are no doubt contributing to volatility. They all pile into an investment, then all pile out at the same time, big money pushing big moves. Our job is to filter out the noise -- hedge funds, normal zigzags, Nice Government Men, indigestion -- and focus on the long term trend. A Special Offer:
Small gold coins ("fractionals") usually carry a large premium over their gold content, so I always buy them when I can find them cheap. Right now I'm sitting on so many= that I have to sell some or move to larger quarters.
Best solution is to offer them to y'all at a reasonable price. I've divided them up into packages below. Please note that I will only sell them in these packages. You can buy more than one package, but I can't break up a package.
Ordering instructions appear below the packages, and if you don't follow them exactly there's just no telling what we might do. Spot gold basis is $1,236.10.
Package No. One:
Eleven (11) Austrian one ducat (0.1106 oz, 6% premium) $145.00 ea. Total for package No. 1 with $25 shipping, $1,620.00.
Package No. Two:
Four (4) Austrian four ducat (0.4438 oz, 5.1% premium) $576.30 ea Eight (8) Austrian one ducats (0.1106 oz, 6% premium) $145.00 ea Total for package No. 1 with $25 shipping, $3,490.2
Package No. Three:
Seven (7) South African two rands (0.2354 oz, 4.6% premium) $304.50 ea. same size as British sovereign Total for package No. 3 with $25 shipping, $2,156.50
ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:
1. You may order by e-mail only to. No phone orders, please. Your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Please mention you saw this offer on goldprice.org in your email. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States.
2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.
3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.
4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.
5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.
6. We allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Change: 4.70 or 0.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.468
Change 31.5 cents or 1.7%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1520.00
Change: 10.40 or 0.7%
Palladium Price Close Today: 439.60
Change: 6.20 or 1.4%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 67.36
Change: -0.910 or -1.3%
Dow Industrial: 9,934.85
Change: 118.36 or 1.2%
US Dollar Index: 88.12
Change: -0.29 or -0.3%
The last two days have trapped the US DOLLAR INDEX in a range from 88.5 to 88.00. Right now it is trading 88.115, down 29 basis points. The dollar is either topping or
consolidating. I pick "consolidating" because it has a target of at least 89.5.
STOCKS rallied today, carrying the Dow up 118.36 to 9,934.85 . (S&P rose 11.52 to 1,061.99.) 'Twas no surprise since stocks were very oversold yesterday. Yet, these heaves are merely the febrile thrashings of the doomed upon death's bed. Stocks now are certificates of guaranteed loss.
Yesterday the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports both made new lows. That is a Dow Theory signal that the trend has turned down. Bet not against such signals.
Today the GOLD PRICE made a new all-time intraday high at $1,251.80, but closed on Comex up only 4.70 at $1,244. That is higher than the last all-time high (which are coming now once a month) at $1,242.70 on 12 May. However, in the aftermarket gold is trading down about eight bucks at $1,237. That's never an encouraging move, for a market to trade down after a new high.
Upon the face of the six-month chart lieth a riddle: double top (with correction to follow), or rally further? I am inclined to expect a correction, but as long as gold holds above $1,230, it will move higher. Seasonally gold shouldn't be trading this well in June, but there it is. Sometimes reality defies our patterns & expectations.
Silver is not quite synchronized to gold. Today it climbed the ladder high enough to knock on the 1850c door, but settled on Comex up 31.5c at 1846.8c. Now it is trading at 1830c. As long as silver remains higher than 1820c, 'twill keep advancing. A close below that, or an intraday break of 1800c sends silver lower.
All sorts of voices are trashing silver now. Well, a bull market climbs a wall of worry. Besides, everybody's always quick to write silver off. It's the Rodney Dangerfield of investments. True, falling stocks create a downward pull on silver. Don't ask me why, silver just tends to trade in the same direction as stocks -- until it doesn't.
Yet silver's chart says it has completed a down-up-down correction from the last high at 1981 (intraday), revisited its 200 day moving average, and is now ready to fly again. Don't complain to me, I'm only reporting what I observe.
Recurring to yesterday's musing about these wide swings in silver & gold, hedge funds with their sharkish behaviour are no doubt contributing to volatility. They all pile into an investment, then all pile out at the same time, big money pushing big moves. Our job is to filter out the noise -- hedge funds, normal zigzags, Nice Government Men, indigestion -- and focus on the long term trend. A Special Offer:
Small gold coins ("fractionals") usually carry a large premium over their gold content, so I always buy them when I can find them cheap. Right now I'm sitting on so many= that I have to sell some or move to larger quarters.
Best solution is to offer them to y'all at a reasonable price. I've divided them up into packages below. Please note that I will only sell them in these packages. You can buy more than one package, but I can't break up a package.
Ordering instructions appear below the packages, and if you don't follow them exactly there's just no telling what we might do. Spot gold basis is $1,236.10.
Package No. One:
Eleven (11) Austrian one ducat (0.1106 oz, 6% premium) $145.00 ea. Total for package No. 1 with $25 shipping, $1,620.00.
Package No. Two:
Four (4) Austrian four ducat (0.4438 oz, 5.1% premium) $576.30 ea Eight (8) Austrian one ducats (0.1106 oz, 6% premium) $145.00 ea Total for package No. 1 with $25 shipping, $3,490.2
Package No. Three:
Seven (7) South African two rands (0.2354 oz, 4.6% premium) $304.50 ea. same size as British sovereign Total for package No. 3 with $25 shipping, $2,156.50
ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:
1. You may order by e-mail only to
2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.
3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.
4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.
5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.
6. We allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Monday, June 07, 2010
Above $1250 the Gold Price Turns Sharply Up
Gold Price Close Today : 1,239.30
Gold Price Close May 28th: 1,212.10
Change: 27.20 or 2.2%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.153
Silver Price Close May 28th : 18.411
Change -25.80 cents or -1.4%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1,509.60
Platinum Price Close May 28th: 1,548.70
Change: -39.10 or -2.5%
Palladium Price Close Today: 433.40
Palladium Price Close May 28th: 462.70
Change: -29.30 or -6.3%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 68.27
Gold Silver Ratio May 28th: 65.84
Change: 2.43 or 3.7%
Dow Industrial: 9,816.49
Dow Industrial May 28th: 10,136.63
Change: -320.14 or -3.2%
US Dollar Index: 88.516
US Dollar Index May 28th: 86.781
Change: 1.74 or 2.0%
Well, I picked a great week to vacation: markets went nuts. In short, silver and gold prices slammed from one side of the trading range to the other, and back today; stocks broke down, probably waving bye-bye to 10,000 forever, the US Dollar index broke out to the upside and added nearly 200 basis points. Meanwhile, I blithely bathed in the ocean..
Gold dropped hard and quick once it broke $1,215 support on Thursday, then scraped $1,197 twice (double bottom) on Friday, and climbed straight back above $1,215. Today the gold price opened around there, and gapped up, an extreme show of strength, sprinting clean to the last high close at $1,244, then closed Comex at $1,239.30, up 23.10
On Monday I sent y'all a message, which for mysterious reasons never was posted on my website, that said, " have to travel this week, so cannot send you a daily commentary. However, y'all know the guidelines: above $1250 the gold price turns sharply up, below $1,190 it turns sharply down." Sounds like hindsight now, but the gold price did NOT close below that $1,190 and it subsequently turned up.
Intentionally I said nothing about silver, because silver is so much more volatile than gold. Silver did fine until Thursday, when it broke 18.20 and plunged to 17.80. Logical, as that is strong support. What was no so logical was Friday's performance, when silver plummeted to 17.29. Okay, Okay, so silver is breaking down but gold is not? Not so fast, because TODAY silver cam roaring back, rocketing straight up from
17.42 to 18.20. On Comex it closed 18.153, up 86.3c.
Hogwash. How do you read a market like that? If every time these goofy things happen I blame the Nice Government Men, after a while I will hardly be using my head. Whatever happened, it un-happened today.
My friend Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com, best charting site in the universe, wrote to rattle his "gold/silver ratio is going back to 100:1" saber at me. Good -- he makes me re-examine my own position.
Once people get a lot of psychic capital invested in an idea -- like me and silver outperforming gold -- it is most difficult to observe it objectively, but I am going to do it anyway. The ratio may have made a big pennant since 2008 and may be ready to climb back to the all-time high at 100:1, last seen in 1941 and 1991/93. That certainly is possible, and the 2008 climb to 84 damaged the bearishness of the chart.
However, look at a couple of other things.
* A 50 year cycle swings from 100:1 to 16:1. That cycle topped in 1991 and 1993. Where's the 16:1 bottom?
* Did the 2008 peak at 84 grow out of the market, or did it result from a once-in-200-year financial panic?
* Since silver is money and always moves over the long term with gold, why would it change a 4,000 year a pattern and move against gold?
* The ratio did not remain at Friday's high 70.4, which was outside the triangle formation, but fell today back into the triangle. That makes it appear to be a head-fake, a false breakout. Today it closed at 68.4.
But what I am going to do, swap silver for gold at these levels, and be without the silver? Not a chance on your life. Even if silver is headed for 100:1, I would rather hold it and wait for it to resume its gains against gold. Oddly enough, Nick said the same.
From today's action, silver must rise above 18.20 and hold there. By the way, all the arguments that allege silver is an "industrial metal" and therefore subject to drop in the face of economic worry foretelling lower demand proves way too much. If that's true for silver, it will be true in spades for gold, where almost all industrial demand is actually jewellery demand. If the sorry economic outlook is curbing industrial buying, what will it do to highly-postponeable jewellery buying?
Silver is small market, and very volatile. That makes it jerkier than gold. Also, it is the preferred market for NGM interventions, and for predatory trader raids. That might explain a lot.
But silver truly is between Scylla & Carybdis. First the ratio ran up to 84 in 2008, a new high. Next in the rise off the Nov. 2008 lows, gold made a new all-time high in December 2009, but silver did not. These non-confirmationsnag at any silver bug.
Can I make a case for the NGM intervening in silver and gold lately? Can a duck swim? Is a pig's bottom pork? The euro is crumbling, the dollar is soaring, do Ben and his merry Euro Central Bank friends really want to see the system come apart and gold gain $100 or $200? The question answers itself. Yet, yet, silver must still prove itself by exceeding that 2008 peak.
Add to all this the seasonal pattern, which strongly pushes against silver and gold rises in June and July. That's not graven in stone, but it is a powerfully repetitious pattern.
Finally, "industrial demand," as almost no one understands, does NOT, repeat NOT drive silver and gold bull markets. Rather, monetary demand, demand for silver and gold as money alone, hitting the market with new demand at the margin drives gold and silver bull markets.
So from here, we sweat, with gold at the top of its recent (and all-time high) trading range, and silver lagging behind but needing to climb over 18.20.
We face the excruciating truth, and we sweat.
The US DOLLAR INDEX broke through 87 last week and ran, ending today at 88.516. We have to say it is headed for 89.5 at least, maybe 92 until the central banker pain becomes unbearable and the NGM whack it. Notice that even though the US dollar is rising, that's isn't slowing gold down. That suggests that scared money is fleeing not
only to dollars, but to gold as well.
Beneath the Dow Jones Industrial Average yawns a starving elevator shaft. This piddling stop has clawed onto the 50 day moving average (10,062.56), but unsuccessfully. No support appears below before, ohh, 8,000. Get out of stocks while you can still sell them.
By the say, the Dow in Gold dollars has crumbled to new lows at G$163.74 (7.921 oz). Dow in Silver Ounces is also breaking down at 540.86.
I have not stated one reason that might lurk behind a rise in the Gold/Silver ratio to 100: the biggest financial panic of all time. Complete stock market meltdown, instantaneous, around the globe. I am not forecasting any such thing, but if that ratio did climb that high, well, you'll be needing a stout helmet.
On this day in 1776 Richard Henry Lee of Virginia proposed a resolution in the Continental Congress that read, "these united Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States." The congress adopted the resolution.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
Gold Price Close May 28th: 1,212.10
Change: 27.20 or 2.2%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.153
Silver Price Close May 28th : 18.411
Change -25.80 cents or -1.4%
Platinum Price Close Today: 1,509.60
Platinum Price Close May 28th: 1,548.70
Change: -39.10 or -2.5%
Palladium Price Close Today: 433.40
Palladium Price Close May 28th: 462.70
Change: -29.30 or -6.3%
Gold Silver Ratio Today: 68.27
Gold Silver Ratio May 28th: 65.84
Change: 2.43 or 3.7%
Dow Industrial: 9,816.49
Dow Industrial May 28th: 10,136.63
Change: -320.14 or -3.2%
US Dollar Index: 88.516
US Dollar Index May 28th: 86.781
Change: 1.74 or 2.0%
Well, I picked a great week to vacation: markets went nuts. In short, silver and gold prices slammed from one side of the trading range to the other, and back today; stocks broke down, probably waving bye-bye to 10,000 forever, the US Dollar index broke out to the upside and added nearly 200 basis points. Meanwhile, I blithely bathed in the ocean..
Gold dropped hard and quick once it broke $1,215 support on Thursday, then scraped $1,197 twice (double bottom) on Friday, and climbed straight back above $1,215. Today the gold price opened around there, and gapped up, an extreme show of strength, sprinting clean to the last high close at $1,244, then closed Comex at $1,239.30, up 23.10
On Monday I sent y'all a message, which for mysterious reasons never was posted on my website, that said, " have to travel this week, so cannot send you a daily commentary. However, y'all know the guidelines: above $1250 the gold price turns sharply up, below $1,190 it turns sharply down." Sounds like hindsight now, but the gold price did NOT close below that $1,190 and it subsequently turned up.
Intentionally I said nothing about silver, because silver is so much more volatile than gold. Silver did fine until Thursday, when it broke 18.20 and plunged to 17.80. Logical, as that is strong support. What was no so logical was Friday's performance, when silver plummeted to 17.29. Okay, Okay, so silver is breaking down but gold is not? Not so fast, because TODAY silver cam roaring back, rocketing straight up from
17.42 to 18.20. On Comex it closed 18.153, up 86.3c.
Hogwash. How do you read a market like that? If every time these goofy things happen I blame the Nice Government Men, after a while I will hardly be using my head. Whatever happened, it un-happened today.
My friend Nick Laird of www.sharelynx.com, best charting site in the universe, wrote to rattle his "gold/silver ratio is going back to 100:1" saber at me. Good -- he makes me re-examine my own position.
Once people get a lot of psychic capital invested in an idea -- like me and silver outperforming gold -- it is most difficult to observe it objectively, but I am going to do it anyway. The ratio may have made a big pennant since 2008 and may be ready to climb back to the all-time high at 100:1, last seen in 1941 and 1991/93. That certainly is possible, and the 2008 climb to 84 damaged the bearishness of the chart.
However, look at a couple of other things.
* A 50 year cycle swings from 100:1 to 16:1. That cycle topped in 1991 and 1993. Where's the 16:1 bottom?
* Did the 2008 peak at 84 grow out of the market, or did it result from a once-in-200-year financial panic?
* Since silver is money and always moves over the long term with gold, why would it change a 4,000 year a pattern and move against gold?
* The ratio did not remain at Friday's high 70.4, which was outside the triangle formation, but fell today back into the triangle. That makes it appear to be a head-fake, a false breakout. Today it closed at 68.4.
But what I am going to do, swap silver for gold at these levels, and be without the silver? Not a chance on your life. Even if silver is headed for 100:1, I would rather hold it and wait for it to resume its gains against gold. Oddly enough, Nick said the same.
From today's action, silver must rise above 18.20 and hold there. By the way, all the arguments that allege silver is an "industrial metal" and therefore subject to drop in the face of economic worry foretelling lower demand proves way too much. If that's true for silver, it will be true in spades for gold, where almost all industrial demand is actually jewellery demand. If the sorry economic outlook is curbing industrial buying, what will it do to highly-postponeable jewellery buying?
Silver is small market, and very volatile. That makes it jerkier than gold. Also, it is the preferred market for NGM interventions, and for predatory trader raids. That might explain a lot.
But silver truly is between Scylla & Carybdis. First the ratio ran up to 84 in 2008, a new high. Next in the rise off the Nov. 2008 lows, gold made a new all-time high in December 2009, but silver did not. These non-confirmationsnag at any silver bug.
Can I make a case for the NGM intervening in silver and gold lately? Can a duck swim? Is a pig's bottom pork? The euro is crumbling, the dollar is soaring, do Ben and his merry Euro Central Bank friends really want to see the system come apart and gold gain $100 or $200? The question answers itself. Yet, yet, silver must still prove itself by exceeding that 2008 peak.
Add to all this the seasonal pattern, which strongly pushes against silver and gold rises in June and July. That's not graven in stone, but it is a powerfully repetitious pattern.
Finally, "industrial demand," as almost no one understands, does NOT, repeat NOT drive silver and gold bull markets. Rather, monetary demand, demand for silver and gold as money alone, hitting the market with new demand at the margin drives gold and silver bull markets.
So from here, we sweat, with gold at the top of its recent (and all-time high) trading range, and silver lagging behind but needing to climb over 18.20.
We face the excruciating truth, and we sweat.
The US DOLLAR INDEX broke through 87 last week and ran, ending today at 88.516. We have to say it is headed for 89.5 at least, maybe 92 until the central banker pain becomes unbearable and the NGM whack it. Notice that even though the US dollar is rising, that's isn't slowing gold down. That suggests that scared money is fleeing not
only to dollars, but to gold as well.
Beneath the Dow Jones Industrial Average yawns a starving elevator shaft. This piddling stop has clawed onto the 50 day moving average (10,062.56), but unsuccessfully. No support appears below before, ohh, 8,000. Get out of stocks while you can still sell them.
By the say, the Dow in Gold dollars has crumbled to new lows at G$163.74 (7.921 oz). Dow in Silver Ounces is also breaking down at 540.86.
I have not stated one reason that might lurk behind a rise in the Gold/Silver ratio to 100: the biggest financial panic of all time. Complete stock market meltdown, instantaneous, around the globe. I am not forecasting any such thing, but if that ratio did climb that high, well, you'll be needing a stout helmet.
On this day in 1776 Richard Henry Lee of Virginia proposed a resolution in the Continental Congress that read, "these united Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States." The congress adopted the resolution.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.
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