Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Gold Rose Today Closing at $1,713.40, Silver Fell 30.8c

Gold Price Close Today : 1713.40
Change : 2.60 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 3185.3
Change : -30.8 cents or -1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.791
Change : 0.596 or 1.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01859
Change : -0.000208 or -1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1537.00
Change : -1.20 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 588.75
Change : 9.55 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,195.19
Change : 2.64 or 0.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $139.42
Change : $ 0.20 or 0.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.744
Change : 0.010 or 0.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 362.78
Change : 4.49 or 1.3%

Dow Industrial : 11,555.63
Change : 32.62 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index : 79.05
Change : -0.252 or -0.3%

Sorry, I am not convinced that the rallies for the GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE off Friday's bottom have any lasting power. Here's why: Yesterday the high-low range for the GOLD PRICE was $1,719.88 and $1,703.49 (for silver, 3231c and 3156c). Today the range was $1,719.83 and $1,703.47 (3216.5c and 3147c).

The GOLD PRICE today rose $2.60 to close at $1,713.40, while silver fell 30.8c (after rising 114.7c yesterday) to 3185.3c. A mixed close always gives me the nervous fantods.

Range for GOLD those two days was virtually identical, leading to the conclusion that a solid wall of resistance awaits at $1,720. Monday and Tuesday gold double-topped at that line. A failure to break through tomorrow would be fatal to this fragile rally, and gold looks stuck, spinning wheels in the mud.

HOWEVER, look at a longer term chart, and you will see that last week's fall caught on the uptrend line from the $1,535 (September) low. Long as that holds (now about $1,700), gold's correction is passed, but if it breaks, nothing good follows. 50 DMA is 1702.11, so momentum is barely, temporarily up, but the 20 DMA stands at a lofty $1,742.60, a long ways above.

The SILVER PRICE chart looks the same, only less so. Instead of an even double top Monday and Tuesday, silver topped higher on Monday. Still, the boundaries are plain. Top of the range is 3231, bottom at 3156c. Break up or down thru those levels will carry silver further in the same direction. If it breaks upward, it would climb to 3340c.

So far in this latest decline, the longer term chart alloweth me to say nothing much. Looks like it has further to fall, but a rise above 3400c would change that.

I have no idea when, but sometime soon, probably before year end, y'all will get a spectacular chance to buy silver.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose from 53.195 yesterday to 53.791 today. This does not touch the high (56.56) of the correction since September (rising, for the ratio, remember, when silver and gold are falling) but it is pushing toward it. That implies more work downside for both metals, especially silver.

Y'all, I had to drive up to Sevierville yesterday, 5 hours away, and spent the night up there. Leaving the motel this morning, I made the mistake of picking up, then reading a USA Today. Right now, I am suffering from such severe brain poisoning that I doubt I can rub two vowels together and make sense, but I'm going to try. My brain will be spitting and puking for a week trying to get that offal out of its system.

US DOLLAR INDEX closed today at 79.053, down 25.2 basis points. The "down" isn't as important as the level, 79.00, important to morale. Once the dollar index bursts thru 79.84, it will blast off. Must not drop lower than 77.50. Moving higher, watch for it.

Euro looks as sick as ever. Closed unchanged today at 1.3313, but last two days has shown no more than a dead cat bounce. Might get a rally here to 1.3500, but soon, yes, soon will come 1.2000.

Japanese yen was indeed wounded by the Nice Government Men's last manipulation -- "Steering", they call it in German" -- and fell all last week. Today it rose a stingy 0.11% to 128.35c/Y100 (Y77.91/$1). BoJ bureaucrats aren't out of the woods yet. Yen needs to drop below 127.5c (Y78.43/$1) to give them any relief.

STOCKS jumped big time yesterday (Dow rose 291.23), but today improved little on that performance. Now the five day chart has a mess on it, with Monday at 11,550 - 11,450 looking something like a shoulder, a straight down drop for Wednesday and Friday with a low at 11,250, then a straight up rise yesterday. That might be something like an upside-down head and shoulders that yields a target of 11,850. Might.

Dow today closed up 32.62 (0.28%) at 11,555.63. S&P500 rose 2.65 (0.22% to 1,195.19).

Longer term chart shows only that the Dow bounced up off the lower Jaw of Death's bottom jaw, and has crossed above its 50 day moving average (11,540), which might turn momentum upward. Overall, this is a decaying market. Buzzards are circling. Combination of government interference and decades of mal-investment induced -- no, seduced -- by inflation simply refuse to let the economy heal itself. We are tempted to assign the motive here to wrecking -- deliberate sabotage by the parasites in charge -- but 'twould always be dangerous to pick that cause above plain vanilla stupidity born of ideology and lack of work experience. Nothing teaches you how an economy works like scouring toilets, flipping hamburgers, washing cars, or any of the understory jobs that keep the economy running. One wonders whether Bernard O'Bama or Ben the Bernancubus every have held a real job, where you had to work and produce or be fired -- and never mind all the other assorted goofs, miscreants, criminals, and ne'er-do-wells in Washington.

Can't y'all just hear my brain spluttering and spitting, trying to get the poison of USA Today and CNN out of its inwards? Yes, my wife turned on the TV in the room.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.