Tuesday, November 15, 2011

If Gold Price Closes Over $1,800 Two Days Running, Don't Wait Buy Fistfuls

Gold Price Close Today : 1781.70
Change : 3.90 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 3444.8
Change : 43.5 cents or 1.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.721
Change : -0.547 or -1.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01933
Change : 0.000202 or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1639.70
Change : -4.70 or -0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 665.25
Change : 0.35 or 0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,257.81
Change : 6.03 or 0.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $140.34
Change : $ (0.09) or -0.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.789
Change : -0.005 or -0.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 351.14
Change : -3.99 or -1.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,096.16
Change : 17.18 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 77,843.00
Change : -0.279 or 0.0%

The GOLD PRICE revealed almost nothing today, although it did rise $3.90 to close Comex at $1,781.70. Range was $1,785.38 to $1,7650.28, so I reckon that close qualifies as a successful defense of $1,775 support. The issue remains in doubt, and will only be clarified by (1) gold closing above $1,800 for two days, or (2) gold dropping below $1,775 - $1,750.

With every fiat currency in the world on the run, why would I question buying gold, and never mind the little downside risk? I don't know. Maybe I'm letting the best become the enemy of the good. This much is sure: if the GOLD PRICE closes over $1,800 two days running, stop waiting and buy fistfuls.

The SILVER PRICE kept her cards close to her chest today. High came at 3479, low at 3370c. Comex silver gained 43.5c to end at 3444.8c. This keeps the SILVER PRICE within the uptrend line, barely, and above the 3369c 20 dma. Whoa! But look up there at 3442c and 3670! That's the 50 dma and 200 dma. Silver speaks with fork├ęd tongue, and I'm not sure which fork to listen to.

Once again, we are left looking at a range, waiting for a breakout up or down. Below silver must hold 3380c, above it must clear 3480c. Till then, we are simply waiting.

For those who missed the correction, I repeat here that yesterday's commentary omitted one critical element. It should have read, "If back earlier this year you swapped out of silver into gold AT ANY REALIZED GOLD/ SILVER RATIO OF 38:1 OR LOWER . . ." If your realized ratio was higher than 38:1, you can check with us about swapping now, but your realized gain in ounces would be less.

This recommendation hath but one purpose and cause: taking money off the table. Anytime you can realize a 37% profit, you ought to do it.

I apologize for the confusion. Most of the time I run around here like a cat with his tail on fire, so I'm doing good not to make more mistakes.

I wonder why platinum and palladium both are stalled in their uptrends. 'Tain't comforting.

Markets offered no concrete resolution today, just hovering around tops of recent ranges. I keep wondering (unsophisticated, natural born durn'd fool that I am) whether anybody has noticed that the European bank solvency crisis still has not been fixed, not even by installing these latest two bank-owned fixer shills in Italy and Greece. Should that crisis come unglued, it will take the EU and the euro with it. I'm not predicting, just counting the possible costs.

STOCKS dithered, sinking as low as 11,993 by noon, then rising above unchanged to close at a measly 17.18 (0.48%) gain, 12,096.16. S&P500 showed a little more spunk, up 6.03 or 1.62%, but spunk without muscle is just feckless braggadocio.

Dow is building (end-October till now) an even-side triangle which gives little clue which way it will resolve. Course, I could be reading it wrong and that could be a kiss-o'-death rising wedge I see. Either way, the upside hope is both limited and quixotic, and the downside expectation as sure as misplacing your car keys when you're in a dead rush.

I reckon most everybody is as prejudiced against the sorry US dollar as I am, so none of us expect anything. That's just a perfect set-up for a bad surprise, and one reason I've kept on saying a dollar rally is likely, fundamentals notwithstanding.

Today the dollar rose 27.9 basis points (0.36%) to 77.843, building on yesterday's surge and shoving the dollar to the top of its five-day range. A push through 78.20 will send the bears loping for their dens. Dollar would have to close below 76.50 to dash my hopes of a rally.

Don't misunderstand. I'm not looking for a rally because the dollar is strong or well-managed. It's not. It's sorry as gully dirt, but right now its not AS sorry as the euro, and the crisis there is sending the tired, the scared, and the terrorized fleeing into the buck.

Yeah, buddy, that euro really shone today. Dropped 0.75% to 1.3532. Gapped down, in fact, never a good sign. If y'all are planning a European vacation, wait a while to buy your euros. You'll probably be able to buy 'em under 1.2000.

The yen continues to climb into the gap it left behind when the Nice Government Men whacked it at end-October. Today it surmounted its 20 dma (129.60) to close at 129.74. That's about where it closed yesterday, but the 20 dma is dropping. Will climb till the NGM hit it again. Predictably enough in our world of illusion, the yen is intrinsically even sorrier than the US dollar, as worthless as a three-legged mule, but all the deluded view it as a safe haven. Looking at the yen makes me remember that at least on gully dirt you can grow kudzu.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.