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Thursday, June 30, 2011

Next Plunge Should Carry Gold Through $1,490 to $1,460 -- UNLESS Gold Closes Above $1,510

Gold Price Close Today : 1502.30
Change : (7.60) or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.812
Change : 0.062 or 0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.15
Change : -0.296 or -0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02317
Change : 0.000158 or 0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1723.70
Change : -1.70 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 748.45
Change : -5.00 or -0.7%

S&P 500 : 1,320.64
Change : 13.23 or 1.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $170.82
Change : $ 2.97 or 1.8%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.264
Change : 0.144 or 1.8%

Dow in SILVER oz : 356.61
Change : 3.76 or 1.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,414.34
Change : 152.92 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index : 74.38
Change : -0.309 or -0.4%

SILVER and GOLD couldn't agree today, silver up, gold down, and confusion is confusing.

The SILVER PRICE has traced out a long narrow triangle, then fallen down out of that triangle. So far the only puzzle piece missing there is a fall below horizontal support at 3350c. That comes next, unless the silver price blows thru 3600c.

Comex silver added 6.2c today to close at 3481.2c, and in the after market is trading lower, 3464.5c. Rally that began last Monday appears to have peaked overnight and rolled over today, pointing to lower prices tomorrow. 200 day moving average now at 3164c. Start buying when silver hits that mark. May go lower, but remember the ancient market proverb, discovered chiseled on a wall when they excavated Babylon:

Bulls get rich;

Bears get rich;

Pigs get slaughtered.

Silver is acting very strong, fighting any decline. Twill break in scary spurts, but is not now signaling any intention to plunge.

Another catchy development: discount on 90% silver coin shrank today from 105c an ounce to 88c an ounce. Usually behaves that way when silver is bottoming.

The GOLD PRICE fainted at $1,510 resistance, and fell to $1,502.30 on Comex, down $7.60. Trading in the aftermarket at $1,499.90, bad for morale. Next plunge should carry gold through $1,490 to $1,460 -- UNLESS gold closes above $1,510.

Y'all ought to keep that hammer cocked. Time to buy very soon, and I'm uneasy about telling y'all to hold off, cause that gold might not drop thru $1,490. Support at $1,460 and 200 DMA at $1,414.75.

Stocks today jumped over the DiG$'s 50 DMA (G$168.27 or 8.14 oz) targeting the 200 DMA, now G$172.61 or 8.35 oz. Headed higher, but not much higher. Top of the range that has ruled since March is G$179.84 (8.7 oz). Expect a straight up ride for stocks, which just as quickly will fall straight down. Roller coaster, anyone?

In dollar terms the Dow today also crossed its 50 DMA when it closed at 12,414.35 up 159.92 points or 1.25%. Last four days Dow has risen strongly. That doesn't say it will drop tomorrow, just gives notice that this rise has been running a long time.

S&P500 rose 13.23 to 1,320.64, up 0.92%.

Lo, all the starry-eyed but ill-informed optimists saw the Greek settlement (actually, half of a settlement, but never mind) and decided happy days were here again, buying euros (up 0.46% today to 1.4504) and stocks.

Sort of reminds me of those Purple Passion Parties fraternities used to throw when I was in college. They'd fill a garbage can with grapey-something and pure grain alcohol, 180 proof. Everybody just dipped to his or her heart's content, and for a while there it was one flyin', noisy, fun party. Then the enthusiasm wore off, the nausea took hold, and the Purple Puking began.

Stocks -- they're the Purple Passion in the Investment Bar. BICBW.

US DOLLAR INDEX is trading now at 74.382, down 30.9 basis points from yesterday or 0.4%. Have to confess I think today was the end of this particular downward reaction from the last (76) high. Two bottoms show up on the chart today about 74.25. We'll probably watch two or three days of slightly higher dollar index.

Euro cleared its 50 and 20 DMAs today, yen popped up to Y80.57/$ (124.12c/Y100), but neither sorry, rotten, scabby fiat currency will move much. They're just stepping out a Dance of Death with one another and the sorry, rotten, scabby fiat US dollar.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, June 29, 2011

How to Look for the Safest Place to Buy Gold and Silver

Gold Price Close Today : 1509.90
Change : 10.20 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.750
Change : 1.112 or 3.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.45
Change : -1.133 or -2.5%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02301
Change : 0.000585 or 2.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1725.40
Change : 29.30 or 1.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 753.05
Change : 12.10 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,307.41
Change : 10.74 or 0.8%

Dow In GOLD$ : $167.87
Change : $ (0.12) or -0.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.121
Change : -0.006 or -0.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 352.85
Change : -9.50 or -2.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,261.42
Change : 72.73 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 74.38
Change : -0.425 or -0.6%

Those dead cats SILVER and GOLD PRICES made hay today (owch -- those two metaphors don't exactly mix, do they?). The SILVER PRICE rose 111.2c to 3475c while the GOLD PRICE added $10.20 and closed Comes at $1,509.90.

What does this change? Not much. Gold remains below its 20 DMA ($1,529.03) and 50 DA ($1,519.92), so momentum remains down. Likewise silver is floating below its 20 dma (3573c) and 50 DMA (3793c). Both dropped swiftly for three days, so no surprise that after skidding to a stop on the fourth day that they rally on the fifth. Yet one day doth not a trend change make.

Here's what I'm looking for, the safest place to buy. It's not always identifiable, but when you catch it your heart soars. Market moves to a new low, rises, then falls back but not quite as low as the earlier low. That is the "final kiss good-bye" that tells you the market has found its feet, stood up, and turned around. Suppose the SILVER PRICE rose to 3600c,then fell again to 3375c but no further. That would probably constitute that final kiss good-bye. Whoa! Those aren't numbers I'm looking for, just an example.

Personally, I expect silver and gold will make lower lows still, but I'm growing a mite antsy. Gold/Silver Ratio is TRYING to rise, but has made only marginal new high. 200 DMA stands above at 46.19 from today's 43.45. New lows in silver and gold will push that ratio higher.

STOCKS performed more raggedly today. Dow rose only 72.73, up 0.6% to 12,261.42. S&P gained 10.75 (0.83%) to 1,307.41.

Dow's high today appeared at 12,284, at the 12,300 resistance area. Today's action suffices to clear that lesser resistance at 12,200, and now the Dow has pierced the downtrend line. That doesn’t dispose of all questions, since often a market will hit or even pierce a downtrend line, then fall back. A second days close above the line usually suffices to prove a rally genuine.

If I had to guess what stocks are doing, and I don't but I always do anyway, I'd say they are tracing out a head and shoulders, right shoulder at 12,391, head at 12,876, and left shoulder a-building and peaking somewhere in between, then an enormous plunge.

Other intriguing numbers: 50 day moving average at 12,369, but horizontal resistance lurks nearer 12,400-12,450. Momentum indicators have unarguably turned up, plenty of room to move before becoming oversold.

Stay away from stocks. They are the greasy flattop of Investment Haircuts.

Humpty Dollar sat on a wall.

Humpty dollar had a great fall.

All O'Bama's horses, and all Ben's men

Will never put Humpty dollar together again.

In today's trading dollar cracked the 75 support and tumbled 42.5 basis points (0.6%). Maybe that's the last of it's decline (it looks ripe), but still looking at a longer term chart in 2009-2010 the dollar index needed from April to February to complete a bottom, that is, fall, hit bottom, and rise to the level where it began.

Dollar index's 50 DMA is now standing at 74.88, not too far from today's close, so it might hold there. Bottoming is frustrating with the dollar, but the trend since the May low has been higher.

My mother, God bless her, was a worrier. When I was a kid she was always worried we'd knock a tooth out or lose and arm or a leg or an eye. When you walk to the other side of that fear, it shrinks to nothing. I've known lots of people who lost teeth or arms or even legs or eyes who had a right happy life, thank you very much. Bad things happen, you swallow them best you can, and go on, instead of wasting all your life worrying about what might happen. And often those things you think were the very worst possible turn out blessings.

I think Ben Bernanke and all the rest of those central bank shills are like my mother. They're all worried about losing a tooth -- JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, BNP. Shoot, I say the world economy might look better smiling at us through a gap of missing banks. Fact is, those teeth are so rotten it would make all the world feel better to get 'em pulled. Let 'em go, let 'em go, won't be the end of the world.

Yet in Greece today the parliament passed the austerity measures to save that bad tooth (the big banks that hold their bonds) to the tune of rioting outside. Ben, Ben, just let that tooth go!

Euro rose a little, 0.4%% to 1.4435. Yen rose 0.45% to 123.86c/Y100 (Y80.74/$). No big change.

More on sugar: it makes you fat, because it makes you hungry. I tested that proposition with our hogs. Hogs sometimes get finicky and fall off their feed. Thinking about sugar making them hungry and making them eat more, I just added some dried molasses to their food. They plumped up like they'd been sucking on an air hose.

And don't think that swapping artificial sweetener for sugar changes anything. That enrages the hunger more.

That sugar is like whiskey. Tastes good, but it'll bite you.

Y'all will appreciate this. Somebody sent me link to the amazon.com listing for my 1986 novel, Heiland. Must be a rare book cause somebody's offering a used copy for $66! Listen, I have a couple of hundred copies in stock which I will sell at $10 each postpaid. You can order at http://www.the-moneychanger.com/order/display.phtml or send me an email with your name and address and I'll send a copy and bill you. Heiland is a novel of the future where fascist government and corporations are one, clashing with men determined to be free. If you're overseas, add US$5 for shipping. If you want to pay with 90% silver coin, send me four (4) each pre-1965 silver dimes, but don't clown around and send me four cupro-nickel sandwich dimes minted after 1965. I WILL check the dates.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Silver and Gold Prices Have Merely Stalled in their Descent

Gold Price Close Today : 1499.70
Change : 3.70 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 33.638
Change : 0.053 or 0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 44.58
Change : 0.040 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02243
Change : -0.000020 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1696.10
Change : 18.30 or 1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 740.95
Change : 11.95 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,296.67
Change : 16.57 or 1.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $168.01
Change : $ 1.61 or 1.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.127
Change : 0.078 or 1.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 362.35
Change : 3.75 or 1.0%Dow Industrial : 12,188.69
Change : 145.13 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index : 75.04
Change : -35.300 or -32.0%

Y'all can say that today was a good day for metals because the SILVER PRICE, GOLD PRICE, PLATINUM PRICE, and PALLADIUM PRICE all rose, but pardon me if I partake not of your jubilation. Gold closed Comex up $3.70 at a psychologically weak, morale-thumping $1,499.70. Not quite $1,500, is it? Why couldn't it jump that last 30 cents?

The SILVER PRICE added 5.3c (5.3/100th of a dollar) to close at 3363.8c. Don't sing to me about a 5.3 cent rise -- y'all wouldn't even bend over to pick a nickel up off the sidewalk.

Today's rises look like tiny reaction bounces after a great fall, the infamous "dead cat bounce."

I am the first to deny I hold the gift of prophecy or clairvoyance, but silver and gold have merely stalled in their descent at points where they paused earlier. The fall so far does not sufficiently wipe away the overbought condition from the end-April peaks.

More, the d rose a little more today, to 44.584. Making new highs for the move. One more day's loss like yesterday's (105.3c) would carry silver to its 200 day moving average, now 3150c.

I have to think both will move lower, but I want y'all standing by, coiled tight and loaded for bear, lots of gunpowder and nails, ready to buy silver (and gold) with all you've got. Shortly, shortly, watch carefully.

Today's stock market drama took stocks through resistance from Dow 12,000 to 12,100 to bump up against the 12,200 ceiling. Resistance in this area stretches back to March. By the way, the Dow rose a meaty 145.13 points (1.21%) to 12,188.69. S&P 500 added 16.75 (1.29%) and ended at 1,296.67.

Momentum indicators are favoring higher prices for stocks, so where does that leave us? Assuming stocks penetrate 12,200, preferably tomorrow, there's a chance they could rally clean to the last (May) high at 12,876. That will close the whole drama in one last grand theatrical fling, for further ruin surely lies ahead of stocks.

You're only a natural born fool from Tennessee, Moneychanger! How can you be so sure you're right about stocks?

Because it's not me that sure, but the primary trend. Stocks topped in January 2000, and haven't exceeded that 11,722 level -- adjusted for inflation -- and won't until their bear market ends, sometime around 2015 or 2020. Your eye can't trace that out when you price stocks in ever-shrinking dollars, but it's plain as the milk moustache on your face when you price stocks in gold or silver. Fight the bear market if you will, but it will rip you apart in the meantime.

A friend today told me his father was drawing all his money out of stocks because he was disgusted with the market and couldn't make any money. Now a stock market is supposed to function as a market for capital, but with government manipulation and Fed money creation, it's just a gambling den and a screen for depression. Y'all think: what would happen if investors like my friend's dad, all over the country, took their money out of the crooked stock market and invested it in local enterprises? We'd have the biggest economic boom since 1792, for presently the stock market starves local entrepreneurs of capital. Tragedy is that otherwise prudent and well-meaning investors are seduced by Washington and media apparatchiki who pimp for Wall Street.

Today the US DOLLAR index is down 35.3 basis points, trading at 75.039, down 0.45%. Dollar may have busted itself today by dipping below 75, although it barely recovered. 75 is the pivotal point. If the dollar falls through that, it falls a long way. 50 DMA may act as a safety net at 74.91. Even if the buck drops back to 73.90 or even 73, it's due for a bigger rally. May take months to unfold.

Dr. Frankenstein must have jolted the euro today because it rose up to the 20 DMA, which coincidentally is where the 50DMA also resides. If the euro, The Only Currency With Bolts In Its Neck, can cross that it will perhaps reverse the downtrend which now straitly imprisons it. EU bigwigs are rumbling and grumbling at Greek parliament, threatening everything but tar and feathers if they don’t pass that austerity package. Got to save those banks, you stingy Greeks!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, June 27, 2011

The Gold Price Has Sunk from $1,549 to $1,496, $53 in Three Days

Gold Price Close Today : 1496.00
Change : (4.50) or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 33.585
Change : (1.053) cents or -3.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 44.54
Change : 1.224 or 2.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02245
Change : -0.000634 or -2.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1677.80
Change : -8.20 or -0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 729.00
Change : -5.00 or -0.7%

S&P 500 : 1,280.10
Change : 11.65 or 0.9%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.42
Change : $ 2.02 or 1.2%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.051
Change : 0.098 or 1.2%

Dow in SILVER oz : 358.60
Change : 14.05 or 4.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,043.56
Change : 108.98 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 75.31
Change : -0.278 or -0.4%


After losing so much last week and flashing all those signals, the GOLD PRICE followed through today, falling 4.50 to close Comex at $1,496, nominally falling through $1,500 round number/psychological support. Yet gold's friends do not yet believe lower prices, so gold traded in a tight range between $1,490.30 and $1,505.22, but mostly BELOW $1,500.

Support stands all around $1,490 clean down to $1,486. The break, however, targets more than $1,486. It should reach $1,460 at least, then fall further toward the 200 DMA (now $1,411). It could catch anywhere on that journey, in the $1,430s, at $1,418, or overshoot to $1,395.

The GOLD PRICE has sunk from $1,549 to $1,496, $53 in three days. Might get a rally before it resumes falling, say up to $1,510 intraday, maybe with a close above $1,500 barely, then falling off sharply after that.

Y'all do understand that these are my opinions only? And I could be plumb wrong and gold might not fall lower than $1,490.

The SILVER PRICE took a 105.3 cent beating today, falling to 3358.5c at Comex close. That takes it slap to the trading range's bottom, and nearer the 200 day moving average at 3143c. Beginning to wonder, after watching that long consolidation trading range, if it won't now fall further (300 DMA at 2709c).

I may have confused y'all with my notation for silver prices in cents, abbreviated "c". I do it that way because Comex quotes it in "cents per ounce." f that bothers y'all, just move the decimal point left two places. Sorry.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO has now risen to a new high for the move at 44.54. That signals that silver will accelerate its down move.

The SILVER PRICE today remained MOSTLY above 3340c, with one excursion to 3315. Any break of that 3340c will take silver another big step lower. Expect, however, at any time a rally lasting a day or two, then resuming the fall.

Square your shoulders. It's a CORRECTION in an unbroken primary uptrend (bull market) offering you a chance to add to your position at lower prices. Ignore those folks who tell you silver's bull market is over. They don't know a bull from . . . Never mind. They don't know a bull market from Adam's off ox.


TODAY made clear that I have misjudged the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$). Stocks have rallied against gold, and instead of following through with their breakdown merely faked me out, and in the last three days have rallied through their 20 DMA nearly to the 50 DMA. Today's close at G$166.62 (8.051 oz) climbs back into the trading range and will probably sentence us to several weeks of misery watching stocks gain on gold while we twiddle our thumbs and await the inevitable collapse. Probably the DiG$ will rally to the 200 DMA, now G$172.82 (8.36 oz).

Tea leaf readers who have become used to stocks moving along with gold and silver and opposite the dollar automatically will have trouble explaining how today the dollar index fell, along with silver and gold, while stocks rose. Don't expect me to explain it, certainly not in a season when stocks ought to be fainting, not rallying. Still, this is no settled issue, since the whole area between 11,900 and 12,100 has been fought over like the Western Front in France in 1918, and might plunge anew.

Dow's 20 DMA stands now at 12,092, and in spite of a 108.98 point (0.91%) rise to 12,043.56 today, the Dow hasn't climbed above that 20 DMA, first hurdle of a rally. Otherwise, it will turn and crash through the 200 DMA (11,785) and let gravity take its course. S&P today rose 11.65 points (0.92%) and closed at 1,280.10.

Whether rally or failure, y'all ought to have sold your stocks for silver or gold years ago, and ought to sell them still. Stocks have fallen 80% against gold since 1999 and nearly 90% against silver since 2001. They will lose again 80% of those values before the metals bull market ends.

So, explain to me once more exactly why I would want to own stocks? They are the amanita phalloides in the Mushroom Hunt Through The Investment Forest.

US DOLLAR INDEX has backed off 27.8 basis points from this time Friday and stands now at 75.309. Plainly the dollar is rallying and will keep rallying as long as it falls not below 75. Only catch there is that the momentum indicators are looking overbought.

Euro rose today 0.68% to 1.4285 which changes nothing and doesn't even fill the gap above. I didn't see details but heard that French banks and France had agreed to a 30 year extension of Greek bonds. This is a default that saves everyone face because they call it an "extension" instead of a "default." and because it's not a "default" no US banks have to pay off on credit default swaps. Pretty neat, huh? You eat grubs and they eat caviar and pretend to be World Savers. Man, that Big Banking is the business I need to get into, if I didn't mind people's faces bleeding when you step on them.

Yen dropped a little today, but it's so obviously managed it's no fun to talk about. About as subtle as sauerkraut with Tilsiter.

Just to prove to y'all that this depression-caused-by- banks stuff isn't new, on 27 June 1893 the New York stock market crashed, and by year end 600 banks and 74 railroads (the mortgage-backed-securities and dot com stocks of the day). It works this way: banks expand credit, credit fuels boom, easy money flows into unprofitable investments, unprofitability surfaces all at once, market crashes, government bails out banks. Yea, buddy, that sounds like a great system to me!

Been thinking about sugar. Once you get away from it, processed foods and a lot of restaurant food taste so sweet you can't eat them. Susan and I seldom eat sugar, but once in a while the craving sneaks up on us. I drank a Coke a couple of days ago and spent the rest of the afternoon slapping myself trying to stay awake -- sugar high, sugar crash. Susan did herself in even worse: chocolate milkshake. Took her two days to get it out of her system. When you get away from all that sugar and high fructose corn syrup, your body just can't take it.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, June 24, 2011

The Gold Price Will Drop More, Aiming at $1,486.50, then $1,460 - $1,450, then the 200 DMA at $1,410

Gold Price Close Today : 1,500.50
Gold Price Close 10-Jun : 1,538.60
Change : -38.10 or -2.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 3463.8
Silver Price Close 10-Jun : 3573.9
Change : -110.10 or -3.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.319
Gold Silver Ratio 10-Jun : 43.051
Change : 0.27 or 0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02308
Silver Gold Ratio 10-Jun : 0.02323
Change : -0.00014 or -0.6%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 164.42
Dow in Gold Dollars 10-Jun : $ 161.28
Change : $ 3.13 or 1.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.954
Dow in Gold Ounces 10-Jun : 7.802
Change : 0.15 or 1.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 344.55
Dow in Silver Ounces 10-Jun : 335.89
Change : 8.66 or 2.6%

Dow Industrial : 11,934.58
Dow Industrial 10-Jun : 12,004.36
Change : -69.78 or -0.6%

S&P 500 : 1,268.45
S&P 500 10-Jun : 1,271.50
Change : -3.05 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 75.587
US Dollar Index 10-Jun : 75.034
Change : 0.553 or 0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,686.00
Platinum Price Close 10-Jun : 1,757.00
Change : -71.00 or -4.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 734.00
Palladium Price Close 10-Jun : 744.50
Change : -10.50 or -1.4%


Even the scoreboard doesn't quite tell the whole tale this week. In three days the GOLD PRICE lost $52.40 and the SILVER PRICE lost 209.6c. Stocks tried to penetrate resistance, but failed, no matter how much the NGM helped them. Platinum and palladium took a thrashing while the dollar verified its uptrend.

When a market gives back $52.40 (3.4%) in three days, clearly it is correction mode with a good deal of gravity-ward inertia. Once the GOLD PRICE crossed below $1,540 yesterday, the trap door opened. After catching yesterday at $1,515 support, gold could no more than rally to $1,524.10, near $1,525 resistance, and faint today. Plunged as low as $1,498.22, but managed to close a chiseling 50c over $1,500 at $1,500.50, down $%19.60.

It's possible, I suppose, that the GOLD PRICE will rally Monday but not very likely. In the past two days it has cut clean through its 20 Dma ($1,534.36) and 50 DMA ($1,518.88), and its uptrend line from the January low.

The GOLD PRICE will drop more, aiming at $1,486.50, then $1,460 - $1,450, then the 200 DMA at $1,410. This should happen right quickly. Watch closely. Be ready to buy.

The SILVER PRICE has lost 209.6c in the past two days, falling 36.4c today to 3,463.8c and meeting the last (13 June) low. Some support remains at the bottom of the range and May low, 3353c. Once it passes that mark, the silver price will touch its 200 DMA (now 31.36) or even the 300 DMA (now 2704c).

Listen, letthe experts all cry and whine and puke in their wastebaskets all they want, y'all just keep your head on your shoulders. Should we not take the correction with the rally? And all the more because it offers us a superb opportunity to pick up silver at firesale prices? Watch closely! Sometime in the next five weeks the bottom should strike. Ready yourself!

Gold/Silver ratio is rising (today at 43.319) but not yet to the high so far, 44.41. 200 DMA stands at 46.46, 300 DMA at 53.18. We are waiting to swap gold back into silver.

Real markets don't need government money. But clearly, stocks need the friendship of the Nice Government Men on the Plunge Protection Team. Week was filled with silly stuff that just don't look right.

Today the Dow sank beneath 12,000 once again, leading one to believe this will be a permanent situation. Dow closed down 91.16 at 11,958.84, off 3/4%. S&P lost 0.98%, 12.61 points lower at 1,270.89.

New support has become last week's low at 11,862.53, and MACD which had turned up has now rolled over. The 200 Day Moving Average at 11,777 stands not far distant and, to a market falling on rising volume, looks like a reasonable near-term target.

Stocks -- they're the Collard Juice on the Investment Health Food Buffet.

After all the sweating, the US dollar index only backed off its mid-June 76.41 high to the 20 DMA at 75.20, then today and yesterday rose 68 basis points. Today the dollar index garnered 14 of those points to end at 75.587. Minimum target here, too, is the 200 DMA now at 77.30, but more likely is something above 78.

Euro is curled up today at 1.4127 licking its wounds and looking sick. Closed at 1.4188, down 1/2% and sitting right above the last (1.4100) low. Looks disconsolate enough to jump over the edge at any time. Nice Government Men of Japan are doing their job holding the yen below 125c/Y100 (Y80/$). Yet stands today at 124.36c/Y100 (Y80.41/$).

On 24 June 1314 Robert the Bruce's Scots beat Edward II of England at the Battle of Bannockburn and secured Scotland's independence. Nothing you want in your enemy more than overconfidence.

On 24 June 1968 the United States government reneged on and repudiated its promise to redeem silver certificates for physical silver. Yep -- trustworthy.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, June 23, 2011

Sometime Very Soon Will Come the Day to Buy, Buy, Buy.

Gold Price Close Today : 1520.10
Change : (32.80) or -2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.002
Change : (1.737) or -4.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.43
Change : 1.161 or 2.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02303
Change : -0.000632 or -2.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1701.00
Change : -50.50 or -2.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.55
Change : -20.95 or -2.7%

S&P 500 : 1,283.50
Change : -3.64 or -0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $163.87
Change : $ 2.68 or 1.7%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.927
Change : 0.130 or 1.7%

Dow in SILVER oz : 344.27
Change : 14.65 or 4.4%

Dow Industrial : 12,050.00
Change : -59.67 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index : 75.32
Change : 0.537 or 0.7%

Was everybody holding his breath expecting the Bernancubus to announce QE3? Looks that way, because when he didn't the market pulled the plug on silver and gold.

GOLD fared all right in Europe, holding above $1,540, but the US market opened shelling gold and never stopped. From $1,538 gold lost twenty bucks in a few short steps, about 10 minutes of trading. Rest of the day was spent trading sideways between a low of $1,512.95 and $1,522.50. Comex closed down $32.80 at $1,520.10.

Critical support lies at $1,515, and the 50 DMA at $1,518. When gold falls through $1,515, probably tomorrow since lots of folks won't want to go home long gold over the weekend, it will fall toward $1,490. Yes, there is a chance the GOLD PRICE will catch and hold here, but it looks more like the break I have been expecting. Sometime very soon will come the day to buy, buy, buy.

The SILVER PRICE shaved off a huge 173.7c today to close at 3500.2c on the Comex. The day was not kind to silver after New York opened. From the open it fell through 3600c like falling through an open trap door, but not as fast as gold fell. Bottom came at 11:00 am. At 3465.6c, so silver recovered significantly (35c) by Comex close.

Today dragged the SILVER PRICE below its 20 DMA and touched the last low (3473c). Once it breaches 3400c no significant support appears before 3200c. 200 DMA, a likely target, stands at 3129c today.

Y'all know what we're looking for? For the whole world to turn against silver! For all those TV cheerleaders and gurus who were shouting "Go silver!" at 4800c to tell us now that silver's bull market has ended. They are doing you the favor of scaring buyers away, and if they weren't so knuckleheaded, you ought to thank them. Stay alert here, buying time draweth nigh.

What you saw today was "management" as the Nice Government Men managed to bring the Dow up from 235 points below yesterday to only 59.67 below yesterday, at 12,050. S&P500 closed down 3.64 at 1,283.50

Seems that as the market cogitated on Ben Bernancubus' statements yesterday, it finally dawned on them that he had not announced Quantitative Easing 3. (Set aside for the nonce the fact that he did announce he would keep interest rates low, and he can only do that by printing more money. Stop acting so logical.) Therefore, since the easy money driving stocks up was ending (so they thought), they'd better shuck stocks, and shuck they did. Stocks dropped overnight from 12,109 yesterday to 11,875.

Lucky, lucky stock market! Friends appeared, with pockets as deep as the Bureau of Printing, and they bought and they bought and they bought until they had lifted stocks almost to 12,000, but then stocks fell back again and so they bought some more and at last raised stocks above 12,000, even if it took a little obvious last minute buying.


On 31 May stocks shot up to 12,574, then next day fell below 12,300, whence ensued an erosion that carried stocks to the bosom of 11,862.53.

The past three days stocks have traced out a near identical formation, which makes one wonder if they might not be preparing to lose ANOTHER 500 points. Alternative explanation is that stocks yesterday made a double bottom with that 11,862 and will advance from here. How plausible that appears in the face of the Bernancubus making the market go cold turkey from inflation heroin, you tell me.

Yet for objectivity's sake and because I don't want to be caught dead "talking my position" I note that the Dow in Gold Dollars rose today over its 20 DMA, so stocks might be turning up against gold. Might.

US DOLLAR INDEX today slapped its critics by climbing 53.7 basis points to 75.320. Entire downmove (so far) hath amounted to no more than revisiting the 20 DMA. Dollar is definitely headed higher, unless it closes tomorrow below 75.

The euro's bleeding at its stitches, and gapped down today like a 3 inch bolt dropping off a skyscraper. Closed 1.4256, down 0.68%, and no gainsaying its downtrend. Look for the 200 DMA (1.3828 now) as a first target. Japanese yen closed down, too, at 124.14c/Y100 (Y80.55/$), below 20 DMA.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Nothing Yet Convinces me that Silver and Gold Prices have Bottomed

Gold Price Close Today : 1546.00
Change : 4.50 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 36.373
Change : 0.308 or 0.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.50
Change : -0.238 or -0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02353
Change : 0.000131 or 0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1747.10
Change : 16.60 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 766.75
Change : 19.20 or 2.6%

S&P 500 : 1,295.52
Change : 17.16 or 1.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $162.99
Change : $ 1.01 or 0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.885
Change : 0.049 or 0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 335.14
Change : 0.18 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,190.01
Change : 109.83 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 74.70
Change : -0.328 or -0.4%

The GOLD PRICE continues advancing today, up $4.50 at Comex close to $1,456.00. Why is my enthusiasm not engaged? Trading seems lackluster to me, not much back and forth, and a slow aftermarket. Maybe I'm suffering midsummer lethargy?

Beneath gold now stands $1,535 support and the 20 DMA at $1,534.28. It has reached the last high close, so "Fish or cut bait" time has arrived. If gold does pierce $1,547LinkLink then it will run to the all-time high close at $1,563 (Intraday at $1,575). Then we must ask whether it is double topping or continuing a rally.

The silver price, too, keeps steadily creeping up. Today it gained 30.8c on Comex and ended at 3737.3c, above that thorny hedge at 3600c. It's close to closing through the 20 DMA (3660c), but momentum indicators speak with forked tongue, letting go no secrets.

I reckon I might be missing something, but nothing yet convinces me that silver and gold prices have bottomed, although I expect to see slightly higher prices tomorrow.

As I expected, once stocks penetrated 12,100 they jumped. Dow today closed up 109.83 at 12,190.01, up 0.9%. S&P rose 1.34%, 17.16 points to 1,295.52. Let's ponder this in alternative currencies, in US dollars and in gold.

In US dollars the Dow jumped through the 20 day moving average (12,165) crossing the first tripwire of an advance. First barrier arises at 12,300. Momentum indicators -- RSI and MACD -- loudly whisper stocks will climb more, and will have to cross that 12,300 bridge when they come to it.

In gold terms the dow rose slightly today, but not enough to pierce its 20 DMA (7.93). Closed 7.88 oz., looks lazy.

Logically, I have no dog in this fight. Not that I don't own stocks, but I don't even go to dog fights. Stocks only make sense when an economy makes sense, and the US economy, where folks draw over 50% of income from government, is not a sensible or sustainable economy. I'd about as soon invest in a stable country like Liberia or Sudan. Makes as much sense.

Read an article today that explained WHICH big financial institution victimized the Greek government. Y'all will never guess who -- Hey, how'd y'all know it was Goldman Sachs?

Makes it all the more likely that we are now watching the final asset stripping which is the ultimate payoff of the game. Time the jackal banks have finished stripping the corpse everything public in Greece will be owned by somebody foreign.

Think of two people who can't swim treading water out in the middle of the lake, both clinging and climbing on each other trying to save himself. That's stocks and the US Dollar.

Today stocks rose on the back of a falling dollar. Dollar relinquished 32.8 basis points to close at 74.701. Dollar remains in an uptrend, in spite of this, but the vigor may be aging rapidly. NGM are sweating bullets and bolts trying to hold the buck down and float the euro, I doubt not. Euro jumped up to its 50 DMA today (1.4416) but closed at 1.4411, up 0.71%. You buy it -- I wouldn't. Nice Japanese Government Men have the yen well in hand, tucked in bed under 125c/Y100 (Y80.22/$).

Sorry, I won't be sending a daily commentary because I will be finishing my monthly Moneychanger newsletter for paid subscribers. God willing, I'll be back on Thursday to needle y'all some more.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, June 20, 2011

Gold Price Today Made an all Time High Against the British Pound

Gold Price Close Today : 1541.50
Change : 2.90 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 36.065
Change : 0.326 or 0.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.74
Change : -0.309 or -0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02340
Change : 0.000168 or 0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1730.50
Change : -26.50 or -1.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.55
Change : 3.05 or 0.4%

S&P 500 : 1,278.36
Change : 6.86 or 0.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $162.00
Change : $ 0.73 or 0.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.837
Change : 0.035 or 0.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 334.96
Change : -0.93 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial : 12,080.38Link
Change : 76.02 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 75.01
Change : -0.021 or 0.0%

Scratching my head over gold. It's easy for markets to benumb your senses and lull you into a fatal complacency. Thus you might overlook or dismiss that gold today made an all time high against the British pound at £950. Gold's on a tear against the pound. Against the Euro gold stands at E1076 versus the all time high of E1083. Not far.

On Comex the GOLD PRICE rose 2.90 to $1,541.50, conquering at long last the $1,540 level. Today it reached $1,547.05, but only on a spike about 9:30 a.m. NY time, then just as quickly dropped back to oscillate above and beneath 1,540. Suspicious soul that I am, I expect the same NGM fighting to keep the dollar down and the euro up are struggling to keep gold from building any steam.

Yet laying aside my paranoia, I can easily allow that the longer term gold chart depicts a market destined to make one more dip before completing its correction. A two-day close above $1,575 would gainsay that expectation, and the GOLD PRICE will have to close below $1,510 to confirm it is turning down. Momentum indicators are equivocal, so there's no help from that quarter. Seasonality is another consideration, and it points down.

Right, I know, I sound like a government economist: "On the one hand . . . On the other hand . . ."

Last two days have blocked the SILVER PRICE at 3615c, but failed to drive silver below 3490 - 3520. Yet silver remains in a slight downtrend, bounded by 3850c on the top and 3473c on the bottom. It's a flat trading range, and until silver breaks above 3850c or below 3350c it's all just noise.

Sorry, folks, I'm not a politician, so when I have no answer, I say, "I don't know." That may disappoint those who believe I have a crystal ball, but it's much easier for me to remember the truth.

It feels as if everybody has gone away on vacation and left off trading. Yet beneath all this sizzles the fuse of Greece's government default. By the way, the pay off in that game was announced today: Greece will sell of scads of government owned enterprises. May I speculate that they will go for pennies on the dollar, and the ultimate owners will not be Greek, but their names will end with "*-insider"? The game will be complete once the jackals get over the goal line with all those bargain assets in their bag.

Let us begin our meditation with stocks. They rose today, modestly, and not nearly enough to escape ambiguity. Anything under Dow 12,100 speaks out of both sides of its mouth.

Dow closed up 76.02 at 12,080.38 while the S&P 500 rose 6.86 to 1,278.36.

On the bright side is the MACD turning up as if it means to rise. 20 day moving average lies far above at 12,175, and stocks need to close thereabove to confirm they are indeed turning up.

All this is odd, as summertime is normally dead for stocks, hence the proverb, "Sell in May and go away." Against gold stocks are making no headway, yet, but it is conceivable they might be turning up.

It won't matter whether stocks rally or not, it will merely become one more act in a drama of dashed hopes. Stocks remain the stinkweed in the Great Investment Bouquet.

Yes, yes, I believe this. Financial panic threatens Europe and the euro, and the US dollar sinks today. Sure, I believe that. I believe also in Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy, The Easter Bunny, the benevolence of government, and the honesty of currency markets -- but not so much that last one.

Technically the US dollar index has carved out a double bottom about 74.90, so should continue advancing or at least not fall further as long as it holds that line.

The euro dropped a tee-tiny amount today, .03%, and floateth just beneath its 20 DMA. Bogus, thy name is euro! Japanese NGM are doing their job, keeping the US dollar from rising to more than 125c/Y100 (Y80/$).

I have now lost count of the emails I have answered about the changes that Zero Hedge pointed out that the Dodd-Frank bill mandates in trading silver and gold over the counter come 15 July.

NOW HEAR THIS: the change applies only to margined or leveraged contracts, not to physical metals such as we trade in. This change does NOT mean you will no longer be able to trade in physical silver and gold. It might, however, diminish hedge fund participation for reasons too obscure explain.

And this incident arouses another, deeper question: At what point will y'all say no? When? Have you thought about it? When they come drag you away to prison? Your wife? When they take away your children? When they steal your pension? At what point will y'all begin to say NO to the government? In "Gulag Archipelago" Solzhenitsyn wonders what would have happened if, when the GPU came to arrest folks at night, instead of quivering behind their apartment doors Russians had met them in the stairwell with iron pipes. How long would the arrests have continued, had they done that?

I reckon every man has a different breaking point, but if you have no breaking point are you still a man?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, June 17, 2011

Expect to See Lower Gold and Silver Prices Before this Correction Ends

Gold Price Close Today : 1,538.60
Gold Price Close 10-Jun : 1,528.60
Change : 10.00 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 3573.9
Silver Price Close 10-Jun : 3632.6
Change : -58.70 cents or -1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.051
Gold Silver Ratio 10-Jun : 42.080
Change : 0.97 or 2.3%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02323
Silver Gold Ratio 10-Jun : 0.02376
Change : -0.00054 or -2.3%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 161.28
Dow in Gold Dollars 10-Jun : $ 161.63
Change : $ (0.35) or -0.2%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.802
Dow in Gold Ounces 10-Jun : 7.819
Change : -0.02 or -0.2%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 335.89
Dow in Silver Ounces 10-Jun : 329.02
Change : 6.87 or 2.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,004.36
Dow Industrial 10-Jun : 11,951.91
Change : 52.45 or 0.4%

S&P 500 : 1,271.50
S&P 500 10-Jun : 1,270.98
Change : 0.52 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 75.034
US Dollar Index 10-Jun : 75.600
Change : -0.566 or -0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,757.00
Platinum Price Close 10-Jun : 1,832.20
Change : -75.20 or -4.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 744.50
Palladium Price Close 10-Jun : 815.70
Change : -71.20 or -8.7%

Spunky GOLD today clambered over that $1,535 barrier to close on Comex at $1,538.60, up $9.30. Technically that's a breakout, and we might even see gold reach its last intraday high at $1,575. However, since Monday is options expiry day, don't expect to see it then.

But even if the GOLD PRICE does reach the old high, it will look like a double top. I reckon until I see it close above $1,575 I will keep on expecting that one last leg down. Since gold is now above its 20 DMA ($1,531) odds favor higher prices next week.

Gold in euros today at E1,076 stands E7.00 off its all time high. Any hitch in papering over the Greek default would send gold higher in euros.

Today the SILVER PRICE dipped briefly below 3500c to 3489, but that happened about 4:30 a.m. NY time. after the NY Open silver shot up, then maintained itself all day with an upward bias.

I know this excites everybody, but the chart shows a downtrend since the end-May high and only a close above 3650c would change that. Comex today rose 18.6c, a little lethargic, to close at 3573.9c.

I still expect to see both GOLD and SILVER at lower prices before this correction ends. 200 DMA, now 3096c, is a fine target for silver. May be wrong and get my head handed to me on a platter, but having made a mountain of mistakes, I am learning to exercise patience. Except, of course, when patience is a mistake.

Gold/silver ratio has established resistance at about 44. If it clears that area it will speedily reach 46, then 49.

Whoa, whoa, whoa! Rumors of settling the Greek government's financial crisis are way overblown. The argument is not whether Greek will default or not, but how to handle the inevitable default. Do they outright stop paying on their bonds? Or "roll them over" for later payment? Or call in the bonds and issue new ones with longer maturities? Germans are insisting that at least a third of the bailout fall on private creditors. Anyway you cut it, (1) it ain't been settled yet and Greece will run out of money in 8 weeks, and (2) Greece will default.

Right, Greek government is in debt up to its ears, more than $42,888 per person, not solvent like the US with a government debt of $44,900 per capita.

Now y'all explain to me, because I want to know, how the US is in better shape. I'm waiting.

WEEKLY SCOREBOARD shows stocks flat, gold up, but silver, platinum, and palladium down, along with the dollar. Let's unravel that.

US DOLLAR INDEX Wednesday shot skyward and hit 76 on the Greek crisis. Be realistic: as sorry as the scrofulous dollar is, the United States is not about to blow apart and take the currency down with it. The euro blowing up might crack up the European Union.

Dollar has since backed off and is trading today down a weighty 71.8 basis points (0.92%) at 75.034. Requires no clairvoyant genius to guess that all the Nice Government Men and central banks are burning lots of nighttime electricity manipulating their currencies against the euro, whence we conclude that currencies are even more a Potemkin market than usual.

Technically -- if that has meaning in a market so fundamentally crooked -- the dollar index needs to hold on above 74.80, preferably 75. Today it threatened to run away sure enough, having climbed above the last high yesterday, but "something" (wink! Wink!) stopped it and it fell instead. Quick as those NGM turn their backs that dollar will pop back up like a basketball held underwater, and soar for 78, then 81. Dollar has already signalled its intentions by closing above the 20 week moving average.

I loathe to report the euro, Frankenstein currency, rose today 0.64% to 1.4301, just under the 20 DMA, loathe because I don't believe it any more than I believe in the lone assassin who before he assassinates a president, etc., starts keeping a diary where he writes again and again, "I am a lone assassin. I am a lone assassin."

Japanese yen just refuses to lie down and stay down. Trading now at Y79.99/$ (125.02c/Y100). Must clear 125.50 to confirm an upside breakout.

STOCKS spent a whole week trying to repair last Friday's damage, but ultimately did little. Oh, in fairness (What? Me be fair to stocks? What am I saying?) they did climb back into the No Man's Land marginally above 12,000 (thanks and a tip o' the hat to the NGM behind the curtains) at a starved out 12,004.36, nominally above 12,000 but not above resistance at 12,100. Tis okay -- any close that begins with a "12" will keep the sheep quietly chewing their cud.

Lot's of folks I respect keep saying the Dow ought to rally from here, the reaction's about over, etc. All I can see, being merely a natural born fool from Tennessee, is that the Dow has violated the trend line stretching back to March 2009 and generally that means much lower prices to follow. BICBW.

I also cannot shed the old-fashioned idea that stocks ought to follow the economy, not the other way round. Since I am fairly sure the banks are sitting on massive compost heaps of rotten assets, that unemployment is over 20%, and that the whole shaky machine is held together only with bubble gum, baling wire, government spending, and borrowing, I can't see much of a future for stocks for the next 10 years or so. Plus they are technically in a bear market. But if you all really trust Bernard O'Bama and Ben Bernancubus when they soothingly croon that things are getting better, why, who am I to stand in your way? Y'all just run right ahead and buy those stocks. After all, Wall Street has to eat, too, and they might as well eat you.

Yes, I do know I have said that twice, but it bears saying several times.

Musing out loud, perhaps the most eloquent chart I study is the Dow in Gold Dollars. It has pushed out further and further on a limb, flirted with breaking down, and when it falls stocks will plunge while gold soars. That chart screams, "Gold will be much higher at year end!"

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, June 16, 2011

Silver and Gold Prices will Likely End the Year at Prices Higher than those we've Already Seen this Year

Gold Price Close Today : 1529.30
Change : 3.70 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.553
Change : 0.147 or 0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.01
Change : -0.074 or -0.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02325
Change : 0.000040 or 0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1757.00
Change : -17.90 or -1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 759.85
Change : -17.10 or -2.2%

S&P 500 : 1,267.64
Change : 2.22 or 0.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $161.69
Change : $ 0.50 or 0.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.822
Change : 0.024 or 0.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 336.44
Change : 0.42 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,961.52
Change : 64.25 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index : 75.43
Change : -0.175 or -0.2%

A ferocious thunderstorm at my office and a DSL breakdown at home kept me from sending the commentary to you timely yesterday, but today the sun is shining. Well, in some places and for some people.

STOCKS kept from slipping below 11,983 although the came close when the Dow fell to 11,875. While momentum indicators look sore oversold, the five-day chart has that "I tried, Mama, but all I came home with was this handful of beans and a hangover" look to it. Tuesday, after a 172 point loss on Friday, the Dow shot up to 12,076.11. Okay, looking like a turnaround, but yesterday it lost 178.84 to fall to a new low for the move. Today missed being a key-reversal by closing not down but up a scraggly 64.25 points.

Stocks are trapped under 12,000, and now a close over 12,100 is needed to prove a rally. Meantime, not far from today's close at 11,961.52 lies today's low at 11,875. A trend in force remains in force until contradicted. Downtrend surely hasn't been contradicted yet.

As hissing cockroaches are to pets, so are stocks to rational investments.

S&P 500 rose 2.22 to 1,267.64. Hiss. Hiss.

US DOLLAR INDEX today gave back 17.5 basis points (0.23%) to close 75.426. Friends, after a 111 basis point gain yesterday, y'all show some mercy. Dollar actually reached 76.015 today, about the time US Markets were opening -- people fleeing the euro, I reckon.

Dollar Index has now reached its last high (76.16) and is pointed straight skyward toward the 200 day moving average (DMA) at 77.52. The European turmoil could send it much higher.

As the dollar surged skyward yesterday, so the same Greek protestors that lit its fuse trampled the euro on the way. Since Tuesday it has fallen from 1.4500 to 1.4206 now. Today it made a bounce of sorts, but not enough to challenge 1.4200, which has now become resistance. In the past two days the euro has fallen below its 50 (1.4418) and 20 (1.4346) day moving averages, and when it passes through 1.4000, the last low, it will accelerate on its journey to the center of the earth. You can bet the lights will be on late where the European Nice Government Men work as they try to figure how to manipulate their way out of this mess. Greek government got another tranche of bailout money from the ECB today which ought to hold it about two months. Greek prime minister -- it sounds to me, and remember I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee and don't know a thing about Greek politics -- is posturing as the crucified one who must swallow this bitter pill for his country. Save it for the Grade B melodramas. He ain't saving the country, he's saving the banks. I reckon those 20,000 Greeks in the streets suspect that themselves.

Japanese yen is twitching just over its 20 DMA. Closed today at Y80.70/$ (123.91c/Y100). NGM in the Land of the Rising Sun are puking in their wastebaskets over the idea that some of that money running out of euros will run not into dollars but into euros, making their job (keeping the yen down) unbearable.

GOLD chart today looks like the EKG of a 14 year old girl watching the Beatles on Ed Sullivan. What a mess.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday gold posted slightly higher lows. High for the week so far came at $1,534 yesterday, and today traded rangebound between $1,521.25 and $1,532.75, with a slightly upward bias toward day's end.

Now all this is as exciting as a basket of new puppies, but signifieth little. Unless gold climbs over that last high ($1,546.78), this rally is only twisting back and forth around the 20 DMA (1,529.20) without yielding much information or expectation of higher prices. Expect a higher close tomorrow as Europeans won't want to go home for the weekend long euros or short gold.

Keep your eye on the range: breakdown comes under $1,510 and breakout comes above $1,546.75. Inbetween is only chatter.

Would y'all be interested to learn that gold in euros closed today at E1081, right at the last and all-time high of E1083? It did. Also, euro gold has formed a flat topped rising triangle that usually breaks out upside. DO NOT SHORT eurogold.

My baby SILVER was right tight lipped today, too. Comex silver rose a weak and equivocal 14.7c to 3555.3c. All week silver has been coiling tighter and tighter into a narrow triangle, but gives no information about which direction it will break out, up or down. 3580c is the price to beak, but above that stands 3600c like a stone wall. Silver has to penetrate 3650c before one can credibly even mention rallying. Down trend remains in force.

I warn y'all, this lethargy in SILVER and GOLD will not last forever. Keep your eyes peeled for bottoms coming in the next 6 weeks at most. Silver and gold will likely end the year at prices higher than those we've already seen this year.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Can the Gold Price Pierce that 1535 Level is the Crucial Question

Gold Price Close Today : 1525.60
Change : 1.80 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.406
Change : (0.004) or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.09
Change : 0.056 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02321
Change : -0.000030 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1774.90
Change : -22.10 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 776.95
Change : -19.55 or -2.5%

S&P 500 : 1,265.00
Change : -22.87 or -1.8%

Dow In GOLD$ : $161.21
Change : $ (2.60) or -1.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.798
Change : -0.126 or -1.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 336.02
Change : -5.01 or -1.5%

Dow Industrial : 11,897.27
Change : -178.84 or -1.5%

US Dollar Index : 75.55
Change : 1.056 or 1.4%

Editors Note: A fierce thunderstorm blew in and suffocated Franklin Sanders satellite internet so we were not able to get this commentary out to you yesterday.

Yesterday stocks presented us with a riddle that today they answered. They were either reaching up for a "final kiss good-bye" to the level where they broke down, or reversing upward. Today, by breaking so much below their previous low close, they showed they are ready to drop more, not rally. Dow closed today at 11,897.27, down a massive 178.84, down 50 more points than it rose yesterday. S&P 500 dropped 22.85 to 1,265.

Back in February the Dow caught and held at 11,983.17. Today it's 14 points above that. A slip tomorrow will give the Dow a 400 point haircut.

On fears Greece will default -- and if enough rioters take to the street, that will hurry the process -- the euro tanked and the US dollar index gained a meaty 111 basis points or 2.4%!

GOLD and SILVER rose more in the aftermarket than during the US trading day. Silver actually closed down 4/10 of a cent to 3540.6c while gold rose to close Comex $1.80 higher at $1,525.60.

But in the aftermarket the gold price is trading at $1,531 and silver at 3587c. If gold were being driven only by fear of euro troubles, silver would not have rallied with it. In any event, the gold price is leading both right now, and gold is rising. Whether it can pierce that $1,535 level poses another and more crucial question.

Of course, the way to solve all these so-called financial crises, which are really solvency crises for the banks who loaned the money by creating it out of thin air, is to let the over-indebted countries, including the USA, default and let the banks go bust. Doesn't anybody realize that the banks are causing the problem, then making it worse with bailouts. Here's a guess, just a guess: if all the mega banks in the world shut down tomorrow, we'd have an uneasy six months adjusting, but their removal would begin a reign of prosperity not witnessed for 50 years.

Well, we'd have to get rid of the central banks, too, really, to keep the problem from recurring. And we'd have to boot government out of the cockpit of the economy. If we did that, why, every starveling in the US would be eating bacon three times a day.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Silver and Gold Prices Rallied Today, but Most Likely 'Twas Only a Bounce in a Downtrend

Gold Price Close Today : 1523.80
Change : 8.80 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 35.410
Change : 0.674 or 1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.03
Change : -0.582 or -1.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02324
Change : 0.000310 or 1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1797.10
Change : -1.70 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 796.50
Change : 3.00 or 0.4%

S&P 500 : 1,287.87
Change : 1,604.00 or -507.4%

Dow In GOLD$ : $163.82
Change : $ 0.75 or 0.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.925
Change : 0.036 or 0.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 341.04
Change : -3.07 or -0.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,076.11
Change : 123.14 or 1.0%

US Dollar Index : 74.49
Change : -0.384 or -0.5%

SILVER and GOLD PRICE rose today, but I don't exactly trust that rise.

After yesterday's low above $1,510, GOLD commenced a steady rise, reached about $1,524 overnight, then fell again to $1,512 about opening time. That's when the rally began that worked all day and carried GOLD up $8.80 to $1,523.80

My only question is, "Why not ABOVE $1,525 resistance instead of below it?" Gold must clear $1,535 resistance before any renewed rally becomes likely, although gold's oversold condition could leave it floating up here for a day or so.

The SILVER PRICE appears to have put in a rounded or double bottom yesterday and today at 3450c and 3439c. Comex silver rose 67.4c to 3541c, but was stopped cold at 3553c. The silver price might rally all the way to the 20 DMA at 3633c before it runneth out of gas.

Gold/silver ratio
dropped today to 43.033.

Silver and gold rallied today, but most likely 'twas only a bounce in a downtrend. I expect to see lower prices still before this correction ends. BICBW.

TODAY the US DOLLAR INDEX dropped another 10.1 basis points (-0.13%) to 74.411. After a low at 74.23 the dollar index curved up enough to climb over 74.40. On the five day chart 74.20 was significant support, so the dollar's successfully defending that point lends more believability to the theory that the dollar turned up on 1 May. Today it merely declined to its 20 day moving average (DMA). My rally theory stays alive as long as it remains above 74.20.

Euro rose today 0.17% to 1.4441. However, step back from the chart and you'll see the obvious downtrend since May began. Yen stumbled sideways to Y80.44/$ (124.31c/Y100).

My, O, My. Stocks leapt straight up like Superman jumping over a tall building, right from the open, clambered over 12,050 and stayed there. High was 12,120.80 but Dow closed up 123.14 at 12,076.11 (up 1.03%). Yesterday's low at 11,918 may have marked the bottom of the wave. If so, stocks will rally from here, maybe a long way to put in one last top to end the epoch of stocks.

S&P500 rose 1.26% or 16.04 points to 1,287.87.

I bet y'all don't know what I'm going to say next, do you? Y'all think I'm going to make some cutting comment about how stocks are sorrier than a hairless mule or a three legged greyhound or a vegetarian tomcat or a hog on a diet or a chicken allergic to eggs.

But I'm not going to. Shoot, if y'all want to buy stocks, go ahead. After all, Wall Street has to eat, too, and it might as well eat you.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, June 13, 2011

Silver and Gold Prices Appear to be Completing the Last Leg of an A-B-C Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 1515.10
Change : (13.50) or -0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.736
Change : (1.590) or -4.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 43.62
Change : 1.538 or 3.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02293
Change : -0.000838 or -3.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1798.80
Change : -33.40 or -1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 793.50
Change : -22.20 or -2.7%

S&P 500 : 1,271.83
Change : 0.85 or 0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $163.08
Change : $ 1.47 or 0.9%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.889
Change : 0.071 or 0.9%

Dow in SILVER oz : 344.11
Change : 15.09 or 4.6%

Dow Industrial : 11,952.97
Change : 1.06 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 74.49
Change : -0.384 or -0.5%

Some things people just have a hard time grasping. Take boys and chewing tobacco. You can tell 'em ten or fifteen times that it will make 'em sick, but they are just bound to try it themselves. When they turn green and start puking, you aren't surprised because that was bound to happen.

Same thing with arbitrage. Things equal to each other in value ought to be equal in price, but markets are inefficient for various reasons, and prices of those equal value items get out of whack with value. Still, eventually they are BOUND to come back to the same price.

Here's a case in point, the silver and gold American Eagle coins. They carry huge premiums right now because the mint's marketing cartel can still enforce that premium. However, over the last 10 years those premiums have eroded, and by the time silver and gold peak they will disappear altogether. At market peak, and ounce of gold or silver will be an ounce, no matter what stamp it bears, and all ounces will travel at the same price. Same thing applies to numismatic coins, US $20s, St. Gaudens, etc., only they've been bigger losers still.

It will all happen eventually, but no matter how many times you explain, people still reach for that plug of chewing tobacco.

The stick that gave stocks such a liking on Friday was applied to SILVER and GOLD PRICES today.

Knocked GOLD off its perch at $1,525 support and fell to $1,514.85. Comex closed near the bottom of the range, down $13.50 at $1,515.10. That's two straight days of losing $13.50 -- exactly. Passing odd.

Now gold must defend itself around $1,505 but gravity has the market in its grip. Today the gold price dropped through its 20 DMA (1,523.60), first confirmation of lower prices. 50 DMA lies at $1,505, along with horizontal support. If the gold price can't hold on above $1,500, it will dip toward $1,450, probably quickly.

SILVER also fell below its 20 day moving average (3623c) and the market kept battering it all day. Once it crossed 3600c a big fall was inevitable. From 10:30 until 1:15 Eastern silver steadily retreated. Comex caught it 159c lighter than Friday at 3473.6c. The SILVER PRICE is now flirting with its low for the move so far. A break of 3460c pulls the legs out from under silver and sends it scooting toward the 200 DMA (now 3064c).

Both silver and gold prices appear to be completing the last leg of an A-B-C correction, ready at any time to post a bottom for the correction. Well, "at any time" -- true, but silver will probably push out a week to seven weeks. Confirming that correction were platinum (down 33.40) and palladium (down 22.20).

The US Dollar Index, exploiter of the underprivileged, mainstay of the Tapeworm economy, world leader in larceny, lost 38.4 basis points today and ended at 74.495. Five day chart boldly states that 74.40 is strong support, or 74.20 at least.

Looks like the dollar will correct for a couple of days. Still, it stands in a rally and as long as it doesn't break below 74 will keep rising. (I'm having trouble with my data today as sources don't agree on the $ index. Either way the pattern says that the dollar will correct for a couple of days.)

The euro rose 0.47% to 1.4414, bouncing off its 20 day moving average (1.4337) but trapped by the 50 day 1.4415). Once again the Yen laid low, barely moving from Friday's close. Now at Y80.22/$ (124.56c/Y100).

Friends arrived at the stock market today with pockets full of cash (don't be shy, Nice Government Men! You are serving your country -- and the Fed) but buy as they might, stocks kept pointing nose downward. End of the day the Dow had been slapped back from its 12,011 high to close a mighty 1.06 points above Friday at 11,952.97. S&P gained a mighty 0.85 to close 1,271.83.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, June 10, 2011

Silver and Gold Prices Set up For Lower Prices Next Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1,528.60
Gold Price Close 3-Jun : 1,541.70
Change : -13.10 or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 3632.6
Silver Price Close 3-Jun : 3618.7
Change : 13.90 or 0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 42.080
Gold Silver Ratio 3-Jun : 42.604
Change : -0.52 or -1.2%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02376
Silver Gold Ratio 3-Jun : 0.02347
Change : 0.00029 or 1.2%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 161.63
Dow in Gold Dollars 3-Jun : $ 162.93
Change : $ (1.30) or -0.8%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.819
Dow in Gold Ounces 3-Jun : 7.882
Change : -0.06 or -0.8%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 329.02
Dow in Silver Ounces 3-Jun : 335.79
Change : -6.77 or -2.0%

Dow Industrial : 11,951.91
Dow Industrial 3-Jun : 12,151.26
Change : -199.35 or -1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,270.98
S&P 500 3-Jun : 1,300.16
Change : -29.18 or -2.2%

US Dollar Index : 75.600
US Dollar Index 3-Jun : 73.727
Change : 1.873 or 2.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,832.20
Platinum Price Close 3-Jun : 1,813.70
Change : 18.50 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 815.70
Palladium Price Close 3-Jun : 781.75
Change : 33.95 or 4.3%

Weekly scoreboard is a mite glum. The SILVER PRICE went nowhere, the GOLD PRICE dropped, stocks took a hit, but the US dollar index appears to have turned up.

'Twas a painful day for SILVER and GOLD, not wrecking their charts but certainly setting them up for lower prices next week.

The GOLD PRICE has rolled over in a second and lower top since its 2 May high. Unless it can better that last 1,546.75 high, 'twill head lower. The whole range from $1,530 to $1,515 is weaker or stronger support, but $1,515 will probably serve as the watershed. Fall through that, and gold keeps on falling a ways.

Here are some milestones: 50 DMA stands at $1,503.25 (as does $1,505 support); 20 DMA at $1,522.54. Watch those levels.

After a high of $1,544.35 and a low of $1,526.50, gold closed Comex near the bottom of its range at $1,528.60, down $13.50. Both gold and its momentum indicators are pointing down, down.

The SILVER PRICE took the deep wound today, losing 109.7c to close 3632.6c on Comex. That low brings the silver price nearly into contact with its 20 DMA (3626c) and sets silver up for a fall through 3600c and lower prices.

Of course I'm only a NBFFT, but to mean it looks like both silver and gold are completing the correction begun at the end-April highs. They made that first leg down of an A-B-C correction, rallied in the B-wave, and now, having shot that bolt, will drop into the bottom of their C-wave and polish off the correction. These lows should materialize between now and end June for gold, by end-July for silver.

Of course, if the blockheads who run the financial system manage to lose their grip in Europe and let Greece slide into default because they insist on stealing even the copper pipes in Greek bathrooms, well, no telling what would happen then. The SILVER PRICE would take it harder than GOLD, euro would tank, and gold and silver would extend their correction a "right smart", as my grandmother used to say.

Yo! You there! Lift up your gaze to the horizon, and square those shoulders! Silver and gold remain in a bull market with another 3 - 10 years. It's only a correction, so gird up your loins and keep running the race.

The value of stocks against gold, portrayed by the Dow In Gold Dollars (DiG$), has technically broken down but not followed through. Not much is needed to push it over the cliff.

STOCKS today found the trap door to that mineshaft running to the earth's core, and stepped clean thru it. Dow dropped 199.35 points (1.42% for the day) to 11,951.91. That punctures the 12,000-ish support. S&P500 lost 18.04 (1.4%) to close at 1,270.98.

Now I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, but I do have a straight-edge. Laying that thing across the Dow's lows since March 2009, it sure enough looks to me like ["as if," should you prefer, but "like" works equally well for me as a preposition or subordinating conjunction] the Dow has broken down through its uptrend line. Same holdeth true if you draw your uptrend line from the June 2010 low forward.

Should this merely prove a correction, as it might, then it must stop near the 200 day moving average, now 11,687.

Imagine that you have a big Dodge pickup with that fine Cummins diesel engine. Now imagine that stocks are a gallon of gasoline in a jug in your pickup bed, and you're pulled over on the side of the road with your fuel gage on "Empty."

US DOLLAR INDEX surprised everybody today by floating straight into the sky, proving that Tuesday/Wednesday formed a rounding bottom for a turnaround. Dollar confirmed that with a close above 74.50 support/resistance, and by closing above its 50 (74.78) and 20 (75.11) DMA's at 75.60, up 110 basis points (1.48)%.

What does that say? Well, until the dollar passes beyond 76.16, it might amount to no more than a rally in a downtrend. However, the other interpretation is that the Dollar index bottomed on 2 May at 72.95, made a higher low at 73.89 this week, and now intends to knock on the door of 78.60 at least, or maybe stop at its 200 DMA (77.62).

Whatever the dollar does, it slapped the snot out of the Frankenstein euro today (who do you pull for in THAT fight?). Euro closed at 1.4338, down 1.16%. That leaves the euro with a set of lower highs and a down trend. Japanese yen closed today at Y80.30/$ (124.53c/Y100). Yen this week posted a double top with May's high, which ought to put the Japanese Nice Government Men into high gear manipulating the yen downward.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, June 09, 2011

Tomorrow may See a Little Higher Close Before this Gold Price Rally-ette Ends

Gold Price Close Today : 1542.10
Change : 4.00 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 37.423
Change : 0.804 or 2.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 41.21
Change : -0.796 or -1.9%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02427
Change : 0.000460 or 1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1841.80
Change : 20.20 or 1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 815.50
Change : 11.00 or 1.4%

S&P 500 : 1,289.23
Change : 9.67 or 0.8%

Dow In GOLD$ : $162.57
Change : $ 0.65 or 0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.864
Change : 0.032 or 0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 324.07
Change : -4.96 or -1.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,127.76
Change : 78.82 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index : 74.15
Change : 0.222 or 0.3%

Thirsting with curiosity, I went back to my own tediously hand-kept charts and looked at that Dow in Gold Dollars and there the breakdown is even more pronounced than on charts I find on the Internet, mine being close-only charts. Mayhap not today or tomorrow or even the third day, but soon, yes, soon, stocks will be walking along smiling and suddenly step into a mine shaft leading to the earth's core.

Today stocks reacted from yesterday's lows near 12,020, climbing to reach 12,183. Digestive juices failed, however, to cope with such a large dinner and by closing time the Dow had gobbled only 78.82 points (0.65%) to close 12,127.76. S&P500 gained 0.76% (9.67) to 1,289.23.

Five day chart sports a sort of head-and-shoulderish look, with the head yesterday and the neckline around today's high, 12080. If so the Dow will trade down tomorrow to 12,090, the rise to about 12,320 before it runs out of diesel. Lo, this ain't no big deal; stocks have been dropping six days running. Even a blind hog finds an acorn every now and then.

Stocks' trend remains down, and before anyone can even WHISPER about a trend change they would have to breach the 20 day moving average at 12,378.

Stocks -- they are the cold, wet washrags in the Investment Chest of Medications for Financial Pneumonia.

Somehow talking about the US dollar index always leaves me feeling like after I've been cleaning up dog snot. You know you got it all off, you washed your hands twice with soap, but you still feel defiled anyway.

Ahh, to the task! Today that scrofulous dollar index reached 73.92 or so and simply leapt straight up. I don't know where it stole the 7-League Boots, but it cleared 74 resistance at a single bound and reached 74.30. I didn't see any news items that might have grounded that, but then, I refuse to look for news items because I read them all in the chart at day's end. No point in keeping up with them because two days later they're no longer news, and if the news came from the government it was lies anyway.

Sorry -- my bile is spilling out there. Back to the dollar. This Great Leap Upward came right on the New York open, and never even kissed back to 74. Trading right now at 74.152, up 22.2 basis points or 0.29%. Personally I am not inclined to trust any dollar turnaround here. More likely 'twill touch back to the last low around 72.95 before it turns. Momentum indicators are either double-tongued or down.

GOLD'S friends who live just above $1,530 all crawled out today and bought and bought with both hands. It was enough enthusiasm to drive the Sun's Tears up to $1,545.30. Comex gold gained $4.00 top $1,542.10.

This makes a handsome spike on the chart, but changes nothing; it couldn't better $1,550 or $1,553. Tomorrow may see a little higher close before this rally-ette ends, but I expect a downside resolution. Any close above $1,463.20 would slay my expectation.

The SILVER PRICE beat at the 3740c ceiling and broke thru. It rose steadily and sharply all day, reaching a high of 3757c. Comex close backed off only a little to 3742.3c, up 80.4. This rise has another day to run at least, maybe two.

Yet before y'all's enthusiasm waxes too extreme, bear in mind that silver lies not far above its 20 DMA (3619c) and far below its 50 DMA (3925c). Stout resistance awaits at 3850c, where the last two rally attempts died.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.