Thursday, March 22, 2012

The Gold Price Lost $7.70 Today the Further Gold Drops the Closer it's Turnaround

Gold Price Close Today : 1642.30
Change : (7.70) or -0.47%

Silver Price Close Today : 3131.90
Change : 88.0 cents or -2.73%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.438
Change : 1.194 or 2.33%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01907
Change : -0.000444 or -2.28%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1617.80
Change : -20.90 or -1.28%

Palladium Price Close Today : 651.90
Change : -32.90 or -4.80%

S&P 500 : 1,392.78
Change : -10.11 or -0.72%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.21
Change : $ (0.20) or -0.12%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.944
Change : -0.010 or -0.12%

Dow in SILVER oz : 416.56
Change : 8.95 or 2.20%

Dow Industrial : 13,046.14
Change : -78.48 or -0.60%

US Dollar Index : 79.65
Change : 0.008 or 0.01%

GOLD PRICE has begun its final descent to a landing. Lost $7.70 today to shutter Comex at $1,642.30, but the low reached $1,628.34.

What must we reckon with here? I'm one of those folks who likes to hear the worst first, so I have a feel for the maximum pain that might await me. Right up front, $1,600 jumps off the chart, followed by $1,560. $1,600 might stop it, but today's close took gold through an internal support line that implies -- assuming it falls lower tomorrow -- it must fall further. Just to hedge that call, if the
GOLD PRICE touches $1,600 tomorrow, then closes above today's low, I would buy it.

SILVER cut through 3180 resistance today and fell as low as 3107c. It recovered enough to close 3131.9c, losing "only" 88c. Now one might behold today's chart and say, "Lookey there! A spikey little bottom!" Indeed, said spike appears, but something argues against that establishing any lower boundary to the move, namely, support really was working at the circa 3150/3160c range, and today's close took the SILVER PRICE beyond that pale. It would have to turn sharply upward tomorrow to contradict that. Otherwise, start reckoning with 3050c, even 3000c. Soon.

Yet another witness pointing to lower silver is the
GOLD/SILVER RATIO, rising today to 52.438 from yesterday's 51.244. Technically we call that a "right smart higher move." At least, that's what we call it in Tennessee. I don't know what they call it up north. Platinum and palladium were also hammered right hard, not optimistic for the silver and GOLD PRICE.

Now before y'all go hide under a galvanized wash tub waiting for your world to end, think a second. The further
SILVER and GOLD drop, the closer they are coming to that turnaround. Y'all let everybody else whine and moan and scan the horizon for Planet X and Mayan calendars and stuff like that. Straighten up now, silver and gold are not far from the turning point, so stop flinching.

The Yen fulfilled yesterday's promise of a key reversal by adding the second and final ingredient, a higher close today. Y100 closed at 121.18c (Y82.52/US$1), up a seven-league-booted 1.03%.

The euro, on the other hand, fell 0.19% to $1.3188. This carries with it the smell of mackerel past its prime, as the euro touched its 50 day moving average and stands below its 20 DMA. A close below 1.3100 will send a large, green, clawed hand up from the swamps below to pull the euro underwater.

All this jubilating took place while the US dollar tried to climb out of its trading range, but failed. It traded as high as 79.949, but closed at 79.649 a tee-tiny 8/10 of a basis point higher than yesterday. Still, the dollar index is at least knocking on the door of overhead resistance. No resolution yet, but expectation must be biased downward, along with the trend in progress.

Friends and I were talking about Iguaçu Falls today. Two of them had in fact visited the falls, and talked about its several descending levels. Lo, I beheld the Dow's chart the last few days, replete with cataracts flowing down, bouncing up, and falling off again, and I said, "Look! It's Iguaçu!" Have any of y'all ever seen water flow UP hill? At least, water doesn't flow up hill in Tennessee, but maybe in Australia, on the globe's bottom side?

Almost all stock indices fell today. Dow fell 78.48 (0.6%) to 13,046.14, parlously close to the 13,000 line. Breaking that point will also break investors' morale and optimism. S&P500 fell 10.11 (0.72%) to 1,392.78, ALREADY below the morale-busting 1,400 line on the board.

Did I forget to mention that although the Dow did not close below its 20 DMA (13,033.29) today, it cut into it? Did I leave out that crossing that 20 DMA will begin turning momentum definitively earthward, begging gravity to have its way?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.