Monday, May 07, 2012

Gold Price Lost $6.10 Closing $1,638.60 Silver Down too

Gold Price Close Today : 1638.60
Change : (6.10) or -0.37%

Silver Price Close Today : 3007.20
Change : 30.8 cents or -1.01%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.489
Change : 0.352 or 0.65%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01835
Change : -0.000119 or -0.65%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1525.60
Change : 1.80 or 0.12%

Palladium Price Close Today : 645.60
Change : -4.30 or -0.66%

S&P 500 : 1,369.58
Change : 0.48 or 0.04%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.11
Change : $ 0.25 or 0.15%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.939
Change : 0.012 or 0.15%

Dow in SILVER oz : 432.58
Change : 3.41 or 0.79%

Dow Industrial : 13,008.53
Change : -29.74 or -0.23%

US Dollar Index : 79.58
Change : 0.085 or 0.11%

Today on Comex the GOLD PRICE lost $6.10 to close $1,638.60 while the SILVER PRICE lost 30.8 cents and ended at 3007.2c.

Riddle this: Gold's low today at $1,632.66 was higher than Friday's low at $1,626.50. Don't make a lick of sense. Today's high came in lower than Friday's by $4 at $1,642.50.

Anyhow, this was not Disaster Day for the GOLD PRICE. It remains above the upper boundary of that falling wedge (which foretells a leap up), sliding down that boundary like a kid on a playground slide. This constitutes no "break down", is a higher low than Friday's, and overall offers some hope that gold made its low for this move on Friday.

Time I walked in the office this morning silver was at 2978c and had been as low as 2968.9. That was only a few cents lower than Friday, so that might mark a double bottom.

I am sure waxing tired of these predictable days in silver and gold where "somebody" enters the market on open or an hour later and sells the snot out of it, driving it down suddenly, only to watch it bounce back to reclaim most of the loss. So it was today, so I just bought some down there under 3000c. That close above 3000c was good for silver morale, and shows some strength. However, silver lost against the GOLD PRICE today. GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose from 54.138 on Friday to 54.489 today, making that swap from gold to silver shine even brighter.

How is silver doing on that falling wedge? Well, it fell through the top boundary toward the lower one and I'd say it bounced off. As long as silver does not close below 2950c, that falling wedge remains intact and points to an upside move.

Imagine that at the US election in the fall, both Republicans and Democrats together fail to win 49.5% of the vote. Neither O'Bama or Romney (or whatever other apparatchik the Republicans front) wins, but Ron Paul wins the presidency while the Green Party wins control of the House.

That is something like what happened in Greece over the weekend, where the New Democracy Party and PASOK (the establishment parties) failed to win 49.5%, couldn't form a government, and the far left party stepped up to bat next. They are trying to form a coalition with a far right party, and both the press is predictably terming "fringe" parties because they spout not the establishment line, i.e., "bail out the banks."

To heap hand grenade on dynamite for the euro, in France Sarkozy, who has served as German Chancellor Merkel's faithful toady in bailing out the banks, was overthrown by a socialist, Hollande. Don't get too excited, in spite of the name the Socialists in France are roughly like Demos and Repubs here, an establishment party. Expect no revolution there.

All this sayeth not exactly that Greece will exit the euro and the euro will implode, but it surely increaseth the likelihood. Markets thought so, anyway. The Nice Government Men in the US must have lost lots of sleep over the weekend as those rogue elections sent the dollar shooting above 80: "Send in the Manipulators!" Didn't do the euro any good, It gapped down and fell clean to 1.2960 over the weekend, but climbed above $1.3000 to end today at $1.3053, down only 0.24%. That $1.3000 stands as the Euro's last support between it and $1.2600. Japanese yen stayed out of the fray, closing at 125.18c (Y79.88/US$1), about unchanged.

US DOLLAR INDEX closed up only 8.5 basis points (0.11%). That leaves it ambiguously poised just above its 20 day moving average (79.33) but beneath the upper boundary of the triangle (or diamond) it's been painting since January. If the euro breaks $1.3000 and gets into serious trudging, dollar could hit 81 overnight, nice government men notwithstanding.

Strange, strange US stock markets today. Dow chart looks like an ironing board, with most of the action in the legs, down below Friday's close. Dow lost 29.74 points (0.23%) to end barely clinging by its hangnails to 13,000 at 13,008.53.

On the other hand, the S&P500 and Nasdaq Comp. charts look nearly identical, with both indices underwater until 12:30, then rising to end the day barely up (0.04% and 0.05%). S&P500 gained a -- get out your magnifying specs -- 0.48 point -- to 1,369.58.

Last week I kept telling y'all about that head and shoulders in the stock charts, and this week the S&P500 stands right on the neckline, ready to fall through that trap door. Dow has not yet completed its right shoulder, but today closed below its 20 and 50 DMAs (13,044 and 13,062). If any of this argues for higher stock prices, it's such a squeaky small voice I can't hear it.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.