Monday, January 07, 2013

The Gold Price Fell $2.60 to $1,645.50 Buy Any Declines also Buy Breakouts Above $1,685

Gold Price Close Today : 1645.50
Change : -2.60 or -0.16%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.032
Change : 0.136 or 0.45%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.792
Change : -0.336 or -0.61%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01825
Change : 0.000111 or 0.61%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1553.80
Change : -1.40 or -0.09%

Palladium Price Close Today : 669.25
Change : -18.55 or -2.70%

S&P 500 : 1,461.89
Change : -4.58 or -0.31%

Dow In GOLD$ : $168.14
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.67%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.134
Change : 0.363 or 4.67%

Dow in SILVER oz : 445.67
Change : -3.73 or -0.83%

Dow Industrial : 13,384.29
Change : -50.92 or -0.38%

US Dollar Index : 80.22
Change : -0.411 or -0.51%

Metals spake with fork├ęd tongue today. The GOLD PRICE fell $2.60 to $1,645.50 while silver rose 13.6 cents to 3003.2c.

What caught my eye was the GOLD PRICE low today at $1,643.71 occurred much higher than Friday's $1,625.76. Instructive also was the higher high at $1,661.71 versus Friday's $1,658.43.

The SILVER PRICE performance on the low side mirrored gold's, with today's low at 2983c versus 2920c. Today's 3034c high hit about where Friday's stuck at 3031c.

Also belying gold's weakness was the GOLD/SILVER RATIO jump to 54.792. And the continuing sky-high premium on US 90% coin -- some wholesalers have stopped offering it until they can fill backorders. Haven't seen it this scarce since the fall 2008 panic. And small gold coins are very hard to find. The usually low-cost small Mexican coins -- 20, 10, 5, 2-1/2, and 2 pesos -- simply aren't available. Krugerrand premium is at a 4 or 5 year high.

Course I'm no more'n a natural born fool from Tennessee, but all that doesn't sound like a market fixing to fall further. Until I am bloodied again, I'm going to conclude tentatively that silver and gold saw their intraday lows last Friday. Only intraday lows lower than Friday's, 2920 cents and $1,625.20, would gainsay that working hypothesis.

In any event, if that bottom isn't behind us, it is near. Coming nearer all the time, to the rising whine of the croakers who croon that the gold and silver bull market is over. What do these people DO on their lunch breaks? Silver and gold bull market continues, don't let johnny-come-lately analysts who don't know a silver dollar from a silver ETF shake you.

Above I gave you the downside limits for the silver and GOLD PRICE. Buy any decline. Also, buy any breakout that takes Gold over $1,685 or silver over 3100c. As I said above, I have already been buying.

US dollar index hit its 200 DMA (80.83) Friday and wilted like an orchid in the desert. Ended the day at 80.222, down 41.1 basis points (0.53%). Yet it remaineth outside its former downtrend line and having begun an uptrend. Dollar has given up another 10 basis points in aftermarket trading. Should it close below its 20 DMA (79.83), 'twould reverse.

The euro has broken down, leaving a gap behind. This day it tried to rally to the 20 DMA ($1.3135) but could not pass. Will probably trade up enough to fill that gap, then fall again.

The yen has been plunging over the waterfall in one great cataract since October opened its chilly arms. Got more holes in it than my wool pants after my wife feeds them to the moths. Now bouncing at prices not witnessed since June 2010, surely a bottom must live here somewhere? Today it gained 0.45% to 113.95c/Y100. Not anything I want to trade or own.

US$=Y87.76=E0.7621=0.033 298 oz Ag=0.000 607 oz Au.

Stocks have gotten their feet tangled in the barbed wire at 13,450, and can't shake it loose. Dow today scraped off 50.92 (0.38%) to 13,384.29. S&P500 was skinned 4.58 (0.31%) to 1,461.89.

Stocks are tracing out another doomed rising wedge, and before this ends may pierce 14,000. It will be the swan-song of stocks for a long, long time.

Charts of the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are jerky and gappy.

The retreat from that straight up rise looks too weak and drippy to be a flag, but what else is it? If 'tis a flag then the move could move as far as it has already since the measuring rule is "flags always fly at half staff."

On the other hand, it might be nothing but a double top, juiced by all the year end trading and selling. It's a bear market for stocks. Odd favor way more downside.

My wife Susan and I had intended to take a little three day vacation to recover from the holidays, but her 94 year old aunt passed away, so our vacationette will be interrupted by a funeral. However, I will not be publishing a commentary the rest of this week.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.