Tuesday, January 15, 2013

The Gold Price Up and Poised to Rise Further Silver Rising on a 45 Degree Angle

Gold Price Close Today : 1,683.40
Change : 14.50 or 0.87%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.498
Change : 0.418 or 1.34%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.445
Change : -0.252 or -0.47%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01871
Change : 0.000088 or 0.47%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1688.00
Change : 31.70 or 1.91%

Palladium Price Close Today : 712.60
Change : 10.05 or 1.43%

S&P 500 : 1,472.34
Change : 1.66 or 0.11%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.21
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.73%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.040
Change : 0.363 or 4.73%

Dow in SILVER oz : 429.71
Change : -4.89 or -1.13%

Dow Industrial : 13,534.89
Change : 27.57 or 0.20%

US Dollar Index : 79.77
Change : 0.268 or 0.34%

The GOLD PRICE rose $14.50 (0.87%) by Comex closing time to finish at $1,683.40. That came after a high at $1,698.50 and a low at $1,648.

Let's get our bearings. Where standeth gold? ABOVE its 200 DMA ($1,662.79), its 150 DMA ($1,678.06), its 20 DMA ($1,666.81) but below its 50 DMA ($1,696.57). MACD has turned up, RSI is rising, lark's on the wing and snail's on the thorn. It's springtime, come early. And today gold burst through the downtrend line from the November $1,755 high.

Yet stands in gold's road more resistance. Downtrend line from the October high at $1,798 stands about $1,715, and the GOLD PRICE ain't nothing till it clears that barrier.

But clearly it's working on it.

The SILVER PRICE rose 41.8 cents (1.34%) to close at 3149.8c and leave 3100c resistance in the dust.

Where in the world is silver? From a spike low to 2920c on 4 January silver has made a 45 degree rise up through its 200 DMA (3068c), its 300 DMA (3121c), its 20 DMA (3058c), and stands not far from its 50 DMA at 3198c. Yesterday it broke through the downtrend line from the November 3449c high.

That 50 DMA and 3200c resistance are the next hurdle.

Every day brings more and stronger confirmation that the 4 January lows were the bottom of the correction. I have been buying and buying. Silver above 3200c and gold above $1,685 is a buy again tomorrow.

Big doings in today's markets, with news out of Germany about repatriating gold reserves and platinum running past gold for the first time since May 2012.

News out of the Deutsche Bundesbank announces they will re-arrange their gold storage (now 45% in New York, 13% in London, 11% in Paris, and 31% in Frankfurt). Exactly how they will re-arrange this storage wasn't declared. Gold shot up on this news because loads of suspicious folks believe that central banks have loaned out most of their gold and thus a large German repatriation would put pressure on the phantom supplies of central banks, including the Federal Reserve.

Now in America we always know how to tell when a federal government or Federal Reserve official is lying: his lips are moving. In Germany, however, government officials act differently. They lie in German.

What meaneth this hubbub about platinum rising above gold's price? Simply that the smaller, more volatile platinum GENERALLY (not always) trades higher than gold. It went below gold in August 2011, struggled into May 2012 to rise back to even, then couldn't hold there and fell to a July 2012 low of 85% of gold. That correction and struggle to advance generally signals trouble for silver and gold since folks expect platinum to trade above gold. When it doesn't, there's trouble in the air. By the same token, strong platinum promises strength in silver and gold, too.

But one chigger maketh not a summer. Platinum must continue rising against gold or this signal stops flashing green.

Meanwhile the contemptible, scabby US dollar index rose 26.8 basis points (0.34%) to 79.767. Right now 79.80 resistance is stopping it like a Flit gun stops cockroaches. Not impressed: only bounced off the downtrend line it broke out of first of the year. Wait to see if it can come back. Bernanke cannot want a sharply higher dollar squeezing off American exports. When it comes to a choice between common sense and politics, politics always trumps.

After three days of sprinting, the euro backed off today to 1.3307, down 0.55%. Unless it closes below $1.3200 it's targeting $1.3500.

The Japanese Nice Government Man in charge of the economy (yes, this precisely resembles putting an alcoholic in charge of the wine cellar) caught markets by surprise by warning against a weaker yen. Since nothing happens in politics unless it's meant to happen, only an investor in government bonds would believe that this NGM just shot his mouth off accidentally. NGM feel the yen has fallen enough. Gained 0.82% today to 112.62 c/Y100. With a huge short position on board, any yen reversal should climb quick and mean as the shorts panic.

Aren't you glad you own silver and gold, so you don't have to worry about all the shabby tricks played by the gabby crooks who run these scabby currencies to dupe their victims into holding their flabby currencies?

Stocks inched up a little more today. Dow tested ground at 13,450, then climbed the rest of the day. Advanced 27.57 (0.2%) to 13,534.89. S&P gained only 0.11% (1.66) to 1,472.34.

I'm still puzzling over that Dow in gold chart. It made what looked like an island reversal top, then fainted like your self-confidence when somebody points out that lettuce stuck between your front teeth. But rather than follow through lower, in the first days of the year it soared, even gapped up to the downtrend line, where it has since bubbled like stew when the propane tank is nearly empty -- lower and lower all the time. And very gappy. Looks very indecisive and timid. If the Dow in Gold closes below 7.99 oz, the 20 DMA, then the plunge will be something to behold.

A similar pattern has painted the Dow in Silver chart, but it hath already broken down below the 20 dma (now 435.14), closing today at 431.53.

One final confirmation by the Dow in Gold will have both these indicators SCREAMING that silver and gold are about to surge against stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.