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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

The Gold Price Gained $6.70 to $1,611.30 and Will Continue to Rise Another Rally Has Begun

Gold Price Close Today : 1611.30
Change : 6.70 or 0.42%

Silver Price Close Today : 28.810
Change : -0.031 or -0.11%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.928
Change : 0.292 or 0.53%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01788
Change : -0.000094 or -0.52%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1554.40
Change : -23.80 or -1.51%

Palladium Price Close Today : 733.40
Change : -29.45 or -3.86%

S&P 500 : 1,548.34
Change : -3.76 or -0.24%

Dow In GOLD$ : $185.46
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.21%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.972
Change : 0.363 or 4.21%

Dow in SILVER oz : 501.76
Change : 0.67 or 0.13%

Dow Industrial : 14,455.82
Change : 3.76 or 0.03%

US Dollar Index : 82.95
Change : 0.288 or 0.35%

The GOLD PRICE gained another $6.70 today and ended at $1,611.30, not much below the day's high at $1,614.43. Was never driven lower than $1,600.48, and that happened right after the open around 9:00 a.m. By 10:00 gold was already pushing and elbowing higher.

But I'm bewildered about tomorrow, with a double mind. I can see that gold has built support above $1,608.50, and it wouldn't take much to drive it over $1,625. On the other hand it's risen the last four days running, and is hitting its upper Bollinger Band. Oh, but other indicators are pointed strongly up. 50 DMA lies above at $1,632.90, a reasonable near term target.

As long as the GOLD PRICE remains above $1,600, it will keep climbing.

The SILVER PRICE lost 3.1 cents to 2881c. You can chalk that up to the crisis sending people into gold, or you can chalk it up to more sinister forces. After all, if you wanted to manipulate the REALLY huge gold market, and you knew the much smaller silver market was tied to it, wouldn't it be easier to drive silver down than gold? What if you drove down platinum and palladium, too, even smaller markets, hit 'em really hard selling futures? That's what the Fed did in the stock market panic of 1987, sold platinum futures to keep gold down. I remember watching 'em do it, well, watching the trading.

But lets talk about SILVER on its own terms. Momentum indicators are pointing up, and silver has traded to the upper line of a triangle, bumping and pushing against that overhead resistance. It could always fall further, but around 2850c lurk some buyers with deep, deep pockets, and they stop every decline.

So watch out tomorrow for a little drop in silver and gold, and don't let that demoralize you. On the other hand, if gold climbs above $1,615 and silver above 2935 cents, they will fly.

Not to play coy, I believe the early March lows were the bottom of this move, and another rally has begun. May frustrate us with sideways moves for a little while, but it's established and points upwards.

Y'all ever been around a married couple and thought everything was just hunky-dory between 'em, when all of a SUDDEN the crockery started flying and they commenced flinging skillets at each other? You were surprised, but they weren't. You were surprised because you were judging the situation's tension -- the opposing forces -- from the outside. You didn't realize that all the smiles and nicey-nicey were hiding huge pressure.

I suspect that's what's happening here after this Cyprus bungle -- I say "bungle" because it's evident they are now trying to back away from it as fast as they can, without, of course, really backing away from it. We don't know who the real actors and what their real purposes were, but we can certainly imagine what's presently going on, namely, behind the scenes the Nice Government Men are manipulating heaven and earth and wearing out puppet strings trying to keep stock markets and currencies and bond markets from going wild. I wonder when the skillets are going to start a-flyin'.

Cyprus was a BIG mistake, a bridge too far. It could be Our Rulers pulled a trigger they didn't mean to pull. Then again, maybe not, but we'll know in the next few days.

Stock markets around the world have already evidenced their nervousness by dropping. The Potemkin Dow rose today 3.76 points to 14,455.82, but all the other indices fell with the S&P500, which lost 3.76 (yep, strangely the same number as the Dow gained) to close 1,548.34.

Dow in Gold took another step down today, losing 037% to 8.97 oz (G$185.43) and closing plumb on its 20 day moving average (8.97 oz).

Dow in Silver has rolled over downward but not as dramatically as the Dow in Gold. Closed 500.72 oz, down a third of an ounce. 20 DMA, first confirmation of a top, stands at 493.26.

I hope the Nice Government Men around the world have laid in a big supply of Tums and Alka Selzer, 'cause they're gonna need it keeping the currency markets from going nuclear. US dollar index gained 28.8 basis points (0.37%) to close at 82.95, nearly back to the high last week at 83. And that 83, technically, ought to contain any upward move, but not if spooked money around the world is looking for a hidey-hole.

Euro lost 063% to close at $1.2873. It broke the $1.2900+ level that so far had held it, and now hath opened the way to $1.2600. Yen barely moved, up 0.2% to 105.10 cents/Y100.

I have to run. I have 16 cubic yards of mulch at home, waiting to be spread, and my wife has a shovel with my name on it. We call it a Scotch-Irish front end loader.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.