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Wednesday, March 20, 2013

The Gold Price Remains in a Rally Today's Drop Doesn't Change That

Gold Price Close Today : 1607.80
Change : -3.80 or -0.24%

Silver Price Close Today : 28.783
Change : -0.027 or -0.09%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.859
Change : -0.080 or -0.14%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01790
Change : 0.000025 or 0.14%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1581.50
Change : 27.10 or 1.74%

Palladium Price Close Today : 756.40
Change : 23.00 or 3.14%

S&P 500 : 1,558.71
Change : 10.37 or 0.67%

Dow In GOLD$ : $186.58
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.19%

Dow in GOLD oz : 9.026
Change : 0.363 or 4.19%

Dow in SILVER oz : 504.18
Change : 2.41 or 0.48%

Dow Industrial : 14,511.73
Change : 55.91 or 0.39%

US Dollar Index : 82.84
Change : -0.195 or -0.23%

The GOLD PRICE lost $3.80 today, ending Comex at $1,607.50. The SILVER PRICE lost 2.7 cents to 2878.3c.

The big old fat blue bottle fly in the metals room, flying and buzzing around and messing up everything is silver's refusal to break out of its range. Platinum and Palladium are plumb schizo. Yesterday they lost 28.80 and 29.45, today they gained 27.1 and 23. But silver can't bust out of its 2850c - 2900c range. Hence gold is like a pretty dove trying to fly with an axe-head tied to its foot.

Don't get me wrong: the GOLD PRICE remains in an established small rally still, and today's little drop doesn't change that. I expect to see a move one day soon where gold SHOOTS up through a couple of resistance levels in a single day.

On the other hand, I am philosophical as a dead pig in the sunshine. If it breaks $1,600, it will make a trip back to $1,570, but I don't expect that.

Whoops! Cypriot parliament rejected the austerity plan, i.e., bailing out the banks at the depositors' expense. Here's a move that ought to make all Cypriots happy: on alternative being discussed is nationalizing the pension funds of all nationalized industries like the phone and electric companies. Response out of the EU is the usual, throwing it back to the parliament until they finally crack and accept the terms.

Message remains unchanged: the EU, IMF, and ECB are willing to confiscate bank deposits to bail out the banks. Rule of law is dead. What's the banks' is theirs, and what's yours is theirs, too.

Some maneuvering we can't see is going on behind the scenes, but clearly the dopes who are running things are silly enough to risk a system-wide bank run by these moves in Cyprus.

Here's what Bogus Ben Bernanke said after the FOMC meeting: Yap. Yap, yap, yap. Yap-yap, yappa yappa yap yap. Yup. Yap.

Oh, and he said they wouldn't raise interest rates, and that Cyprus wasn't a threat to the US financial system, that there would be pie in the sky by and by, and that if frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their little butts when they jump.

Ben, you are running on fumes way past empty.

Stocks rose again today, but I wouldn't count on that extending. Dow gained 55.91 (0.39%) to 14,511.73 and the S&P500 gained 10.37 (0.67%). It seems to me stocks are due a little correction, even if they intend to move much higher, but I have no dog in that fight, and don't intend to.

Dow in gold rose a hair today up 0.6%, to 9.03 oz (G$186.67), probably bouncing off the 20 day moving average beneath (8.97 oz or G$185.43). Still looks broken to me, although it might rise one more little tad to fill a gap above.

Dow in silver has (1) broken down out of a rising wedge, (2) fallen three days, (3) risen back up today to touch the top boundary of that wedge's peak. Closed up 0.72% to 504.32 oz (just for interest's sake, that's $652.08 silver dollars). RSI and MACD both point down. Looks to have broken down, but must confirm by moving lower.

Five day chart leaves me expecting lower dollar rates. US dollar index closed 82,.843, down 19.5 basis points or 0.25%. If it falls through 82.6, well, 82.4, it will skid a ways. However, with half the world scared it death, dollar could skitter up sharply at any time. Yesterday it made a slightly higher high above 83. If it clears 83 and closes up there, it could easily run for 84 or 85.

Euro rose 0.49% to $1.2936. Chart has that same old gappy, jumpy look it would have if NGM intervention were catching the shorts and scaring them out for a day. Don't believe I'd want to own euros.

Yen dropped 0.75% to 104.16, about the same bottom it's been bouncing along. No change.

Sorry, I won't publish a commentary tomorrow or Friday. I'll be travelling to Union, South Carolina for a literary festival and to show off At Home In Dogwood Mudhole, my new book. Check it out at www.dogwoodmudhole.com. Back Monday.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.