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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

27 June Low was the Gold Price Low

Gold Price Close Today : 1312.40
Change : -11.60 or -0.88%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.617
Change : -0.049 or -0.25%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 66.901
Change : -0.423 or -0.63%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01495
Change : 0.000094 or 0.63%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1428.40
Change : -8.20 or -0.57%

Palladium Price Close Today : 725.45
Change : -2.30 or -0.32%

S&P 500 : 1,685.73
Change : -0.23 or -0.01%

Dow In GOLD$ : $244.14
Change : $ 1.81 or 0.75%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.810
Change : 0.088 or 0.75%

Dow in SILVER oz : 790.11
Change : 0.90 or 0.11%

Dow Industrial : 15,499.54
Change : -21.05 or -0.14%

US Dollar Index : 81.656
Change : -0.186 or -0.23%

The paper markets for SILVER and GOLD, especially Comex, are so bogus. SILVER and GOLD PRICES traded down today before the FOMC, but never with any conviction. Nonetheless the Comex closed with the GOLD PRICE down $11.60 to $1,312.40 and the SILVER PRICE down 4.9 cents to 1961.7 cents.

Why do I say they're bogus? Because now GOLD is trading at $1,326.75, up from close $2.00 and SILVER is trading 1993c, up nearly 30 cents from yesterday.

Both metals have their faces pushed up against the downtrend line, and for all silver's lukewarm performance of the last few days, I suspect the GOLD PRICE may yet climb this week. It oughtn't surprise anybody but a central banker that after the beaten gold has taken since April that it needs more than one try to punch through stout resistance like $1,325. This is the second try. Maybe this time.

Personally, until gainsaid by the price, I am presuming that the 27 June low was THE GOLD PRICE low. May be a lot of frustrating backing and filling before us, but the worst lies behind.

Y'all know what an Amazon Prime subscription ($90 a year) buys you? Free video streaming of over 14,000 films nobody wants to see. Whoops -- you have to RENT the ones you actually WANT to see.

My wife does this stuff behind my back, because I won't use Amazon if I can avoid it. Otherwise one of these days they'll gobble up even Wal-Mart. They'll be the only people on the planet selling anything.

Speaking of movies, the most prophetic movie I have ever seen about where America is headed is Idiocracy. It's crude, it's obscene, it's scatological, it's stupid, and it's right where America is headed. In the world of the future, the American president is a professional wrestler. It's hilarious, but don't watch it with your kids. You may even want to ask your wife to leave the room. Shoot, you may want to leave the room yourself.

And, speaking of Idiocracy, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee issued a statement today. As I expected, in the teeth of all the Wise and Mighty Pundits of the Media, they said nothing about tapering and asserted again their right and intention to keep right on buying bonds till they bust. Markets weren't sure whether to like that or not. Bonds rose a little, stocks fell a little, gold was faked with a cosmetic Comex close but rose in the aftermarket, and pork bellies are still bacon.

It's funny, but the chart for the Dow, the S&P500, and the euro all look the same: sharp uptrend, break in the uptrend by trading sideways through the line, but no downside follow-through. Looks highly unstable, floating there, just waiting to drop. But what do I know? Shoot, I'm crazy as a Betsy bug, even believe that a country can't inflate its way to prosperity and that gravity still works.

Onward to markets. Dow lost 21.05 (0.14%) to 15,499.54. Tried to rise early in the day, plopped down sharply, tried to rise again, but just had no juice or conviction. S&P lost 0.23 (0.1%) to 1,685.73. Other indices rose, so there's confusion in stocks. I reckon those buyers get their feelings hurt when stocks don't make new highs day after day.

Price I report to y'all for the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver is the Dow close divided by the Comex close. On days when the metals aftermarket is much higher or lower, dividing by the aftermarket rather than the Comex close yields different results. So today if you took those end of the day prices, the Dow in metals would be lower. But let's take the usual method.

Dow in Gold rose 0.75% to 11.81 oz (G$244.14 gold dollars) while the Dow in Silver rose a smidgen, 0.11%, to 790.11 oz. Both have broken down out of triangles and turned down, unless they rise above existing trends.

US Dollar index rose early in the day above 82, anticipating good news from the FOMC Idiocrats, but it was disappointed in the outcome. After the announcement it sank to 81.407, but has since managed to climb back over crucial 81.50 support (and the 200 DMA. If the dollar index closes below that, it will drop to 80.75.

Euro dropped sharply earlier in the day then rose 0.29% from yesterday to end at $1.3302. Days of its rally are numbered. Yen rose 0.17% to 102.17 cents/Y100, trending up.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
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© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.