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Wednesday, August 07, 2013

Gold Price Closed at 1,286.10 Silver Price Closed at 19.498

Gold Price Close Today : 1,286.10
Change : 2.90 or 0.23%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.498
Change : -0.017 or -0.09%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.961
Change : 0.206 or 0.31%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01516
Change : -0.000048 or -0.31%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1437.40
Change : 10.50 or 0.74%

Palladium Price Close Today : 722.25
Change : 0.35 or 0.05%

S&P 500 : 1,690.91
Change : -6.46 or -0.38%

Dow In GOLD$ : $248.66
Change : $ (1.34) or -0.53%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.029
Change : -0.065 or -0.53%

Dow in SILVER oz : 793.45
Change : -1.77 or -0.22%

Dow Industrial : 15,470.67
Change : -48.07 or -0.31%

US Dollar Index : 81.292
Change : -0.328 or -0.40%

Silver and GOLD PRICES gainsaid each other today. Silver fell 1.7 cents to 1949.8 while the gold price rose $2.90 to $1,286.10.

Gold's low today at $1,274.35 came a little higher than yesterday's, but this was not a day of great revelations. Gold price traded in a narrow $13.45 range, from $1,274.35 to $1,287.80, and closed near the top of that range. That leaves us with a POSSIBLE rounding bottom from yesterday and today. If so, tomorrow gold will trade all day above today's low, and most likely higher. Any break below that low should take gold lower. It bothers me that gold remains below its 20 day moving average ($1,305.16). However, gold is now stretched the farthest from its 200 and 300 day moving averages that it has seen since 2008. Add to that similar bullishness from commitments of traders. Those things argue against another sharp gold plunge.

The SILVER PRICE traded as low as 1929.2 today, offering a double bottom with last Friday's law at 1918c. More, silver traded into a V-bottom today, and ended the day about where it ended yesterday. Silver has to confirm any V-bottom by trading higher tomorrow.

Here's a small thing, but watch it. Technically both silver and GOLD PRICES made the first half of a key reversal today, trading into new low ground for the move but ending the day higher. (Only the silver end-of-day chart shows that, but there 'tis.) Follow through with higher closes tomorrow would confirm a reversal.

Silver and gold markets are suffering from a massive lack of interest. Dealers and wholesalers around the country report snore-some days. Beware of seemingly dead markets. They can be spring-loaded for big jumps up or down, simply because they are thinly attended.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney (not "carnie," as "one who works in a carnival," but -- well, never mind. That may be accurate after all) who moved from the Bank of Canada to the Bank of England, took his cues from Ben the Beneficent today and announced that the BoE would keep rates at 0.5% until unemployment drops to 7%. Markets didn't believe him as interest rates on UK government bonds rose. Central bankers are the Rodney Dangerfields of the financial world -- they just can't get no respect. After promising so much, printing so much, and delivering so little in economic improvement, the world may be starting to recognize that central bankers are merely wet cardboard cut-outs -- poke your finger at 'em and it pokes right through.

US dollar index stepped into a manhole today. Lost 32.8 basis points (0.42%) and ended well below 81.50 support at 81.292. This probably inaugurates another nosedive for the dollar, down to long term support at 80.75 or so. I remind y'all that Bernanke the Bumbling has set up another bubble, this time in US bonds, by his Zero Interest Rate Policy. Interest rates broke out upside in June, signaling definitively that markets are rejecting the Bumbler's claim to omnipotence in interest rates. As rates move higher and bonds move lower (rates and bonds move opposite each other), plentiful opportunity for panic out of bonds and the dollar aboundeth.

Today, though, US interest rates fell, and the dollar with them.

Y'all ought to know I do not welcome or gloat in any of this. It grieves my soul that greed and corruption -- I do not say "stupidity" because that stretches credulity -- could so devastate this land. Sooner or later, it will all hit the wall.

While the poor US dollar index was scraping bottom and knocking the bottom out of the barrel, the euro and yen were rising. Euro rose 0.27% to $1.3341. Yen impressed more with a gap up, gaining 1.39% to 103.75. Jumping from the dollar to the yen is like winos pitching away their cans of Sterno and going straight for the wood alcohol.

For the last three days stocks have followed the same pattern: drop on open with a flattish recovery through the day ending with a lower close. Look! There, on the anchor rope! The rats are leaving the ship!

Dow Jones Industrial average closed the day at 15,470.67, down 48.07 (0.31%). No laggard, the S&P500 lost 6.46 (0.38%) to 1,690.91.

Look thou at the chart, yea, gaze thereon. Both have broken down through, yea, pierced and penetrated, the bottom boundary of the rising trend channel. Yep, that means they are now headed down instead of up. I still expect a wilder-yet blowoff top, but for the nonce stocks are in correction gear.

One of the most frustrating, wearing formations is the broadening top, especially in stocks. They take a long while to unfold. What we have in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver is not precisely a broadening top, but is unfolding with the same mind-changing frustration. I'd rather shop shop for shoes with my wife. Today, however, they rewarded patience with lower closes, showing they are gaining against stocks. Dow in Gold ended at 12.029 oz (G$248.66 gold dollars), down 0.53%. Dow in Silver lost 0.22% or 1.77 oz to close at 793.45 oz. Still rolling over to the downside.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.