Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Gold Price Remained Above it's 20 and 50 Day Moving Averages Ending at $1,321.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1321.20
Change : -13.50 or -1.01%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.336
Change : 0.004 or 0.02%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.924
Change : -0.644 or -1.03%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01615
Change : 0.000166 or 1.04%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1498.80
Change : 1.00 or 0.07%

Palladium Price Close Today : 738.00
Change : 1.30 or 0.18%

S&P 500 : 1,694.16
Change : 4.69 or 0.28%

Dow In GOLD$ : $241.75
Change : $ 2.49 or 1.04%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.695
Change : 0.121 or 1.04%

Dow in SILVER oz : 724.18
Change : 0.01 or 0.00%

Dow Industrial : 15,451.01
Change : 3.13 or 0.02%

US Dollar Index : 81.736
Change : 0.257 or 0.32%

The GOLD PRICE lost $13.50 to end at $1,321.20 while silver lost 4/10 of one cent to end at 2133.6c.

Got to wonder if that didn't mark the limit, not of the rally, but of the first bursting wave of it. Silver hit 2170.2 about 9:00 a.m. but couldn't hold onto those gains. Spent the rest of the day trading sideways. That might have been enough for it to catch its breath for another leg up tomorrow, but I have no conviction about that. That gap the SILVER PRICE left yesterday looks like a breakaway gap to me, which would mean silver will rise further tomorrow. MACD and RSI are just now looking good, not toppy. But the market tells me, I don't tell the market.

The GOLD PRICE did no more than trade back to its breakout point for one last kiss goodbye. Remained above its 50 ($1,310.75) and 20 ($1,313.59) day moving averages. Remains above the May downtrend line. As with silver, today could have been a one day pause in a longer rise.

Nothing today gainsays my standing interpretation, namely, that silver and gold prices posted their bottoms for the 2011-2013 correction on 27 June, and have begun the next rally. If I'm right, when the gold price crosses that $1,350 a lot of shorts will begin meditating on their mortality and run for cover. That will feed the rally in both metals.

Confirming that interpretation is the plunging GOLD/SILVER RATIO, today at 61.924 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. It has fallen 6.1% from 65.961 five days ago. Strong witness a rally is starting, but I reckon folks will wait until silver crosses 5000c to buy, wanting to be "sure."

Blamed if I can figure out why markets fall for the good banker/bad banker the Fed plays on 'em. One day one of those Fed goofs says they ought to "taper" tomorrow, and the market jerks. Next day another Fed gooney says, No, the Fed will keep buying bonds till US attorneys start prosecuting too big to fail banks. Did it occur to anyone that in reality the Fed has no idea what they will do or when?

Confusion danced around the room today, sowing the seeds of bewilderment. US dollar index rose 25.7 basis points to 81.736 and climbed above its 200 DMA. That has folks thinking it will rise more, which it probably will. That also has 'em thinking the gold price will suffer, which it probably won't.

Yen broke badly today, down 1.27% to 101.89 cents/Y100. RSI and MACD have turned down, and yen is about to cross below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Close below 101.50 cents/Y100 opens a manhole below the yen

Euro ain't nothing to brag about, either. It has broken down with an island reversal and today ran into its 20 DMA ($1.3252). Closed $1.3265. Euro and yen are both yelling that the dollar is about to rise.

Ten year treasury not yield gapped up today 4.22% to close at 2.715%. Why, I'm not sure, other than interest rates want to rise, having been kept hugging zero by Bernanke so long. Higher rates would certainly make that ugly-as-five-miles-of-mud-road dollar look prettier.

Stocks dropped off to start the day, but recovered, climbed sharply, then let slip most of the gains. Dow gained 31.33 (0.2%) to 15,451.01 while the S&P500 gained 4.69 (0.28%) to 1,694.16. That doesn't seem like enough correction yet. Expect more downside, to the 50 day moving averages at least, say, 15,275 and 1,650.

Dow in gold rose 1.04% to 11.695 oz (G$241.75 gold dollars), but that hardly helped. Barely put the DiG above its 50 DMA (11.67 oz), but 'twill drop further.

Dow in silver was unchanged at 724.18 oz. Bigger drops coming, whether tomorrow or later. The decisive trend change has taken place, and it turned earthward.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.