Gold Price Close Today : 1,308.40
Gold Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 1,373.10
Change : -64.70 or -4.7%
Silver Price Close Today : 21.67
Silver Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 23.206
Change : -1.536 or -6.6%
Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.378
Gold Silver Ratio 5-Sep-13 : 59.170
Change : 1.21 or 2.0%
Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01656
Silver Gold Ratio 5-Sep-13 : 0.01690
Change : -0.00034 or -2.0%
Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 242.93
Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Sep-13 : $ 224.88
Change : $18.05 or 8.0%
Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.752
Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Sep-13 : 10.879
Change : 0.87 or 8.0%
Dow in Silver Ounces : 709.56
Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Sep-13 : 643.69
Change : 65.86 or 10.2%
Dow Industrial : 15,376.06
Dow Industrial 5-Sep-13 : 14,937.48
Change : 438.58 or 2.9%
S&P 500 : 1,687.99
S&P 500 5-Sep-13 : 1,655.08
Change : 32.91 or 2.0%
US Dollar Index : 81.470
US Dollar Index 5-Sep-13 : 82.640
Change : -1.170 or -1.4%
Platinum Price Close Today : 1,443.60
Platinum Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 1,481.20
Change : -37.60 or -2.5%
Palladium Price Close Today : 697.50
Palladium Price Close 5-Sep-13 : 685.50
Change : 12.00 or 1.8%
What might make me interrupt my vacation to send you a commentary? Well, the silver and GOLD PRICES falling to or past critical support levels.
Two interpretations present themselves, and they gainsay each other. Both can't be right.
Both silver and GOLD PRICES have been rallying and have formed an upside-down head and shoulders formation, which presages a rise at least the height of the head from the neckline, for silver 2650 cents and for gold $1,550. But what ho! They broke this week. What now?
Either the upside down HandS will vindicate itself and silver and gold prices will grab here and reverse, OR metals face another plunge down to validate or exceed the 27 June lows.
If we're watching an upside-down HandS, silver and gold prices have sunk as far as they are allowed. The gold price broke its 50 DMA (1333.31) and hit the neckline Silver hit the neckline, too, and touched its 50 DMA (2139c).
Gold price lost $22 today to close Comex at $1,308.40. SILVER PRICE lost 42.9 cents to end Comex at 2167c.
If this really is the correct interpretation, then silver and gold will both turn up next week. No time or room to tarry here.
The other interpretation says that the rally from the June lows has only been a countertrend rally, and the long correction from 2011 through 2013 needs one more leg down, perhaps to $1,280, perhaps lower than $1,180. If this is correct, silver and gold will suffer a weak September and an October low,.
Don't bother throwing any rocks at me, I don't know which the final outcome will be. I can only look at possibilities and humbly advance an opinion.
Now of this changes the dangerous world we live in, where all "authorities" sing that everything has been fixed and that we can print our way to prosperity, world without end, Amen. I may be no more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, but I ain't that big a dad burned fool, not by a long shot.
Dow in gold today closed at 11.752 oz, up today 2.2% (G$242.93 in gold dollars) Dow in silver closed up 2.5% or 17,19 oz at 707,56 oz. Dow in Gold has retraced its fall from the June 27 high back up to the downtrend line. That argues one of two things: either it's going lots higher, or the correction has exhausted itself and will very soon reverse.
Dow in silver isn't nearly as clear. Unlike the Dow in Gold, it has not climbed through its 20 and 50 DMAs, but only the 20 DMA. 50 lies above at 720.24 oz. Comparable downtrend line to gold's hits today about 780 oz., so it must climb considerably higher before it equals gold.
Both these indicators argue that the metals' decline is nearing an end. On the other hand, "a trend in force remains in force until proven otherwise." Neither gold nor silver have disproven the long correction's downtrend by closing above their April breakdowns ($1,550 and $27.00). Right now that seems the more powerful argument to me.
Another little fact is the strong rebound in the metals' aftermarket. Gold jumped up from $1,308.40 to $1,323.50 and silver from 2167c to 2219c. Of course, nothing more than traders covering their shorts after a profitable week might account for that.
US dollar index remains strangely weak, and has backed down to its major uptrend line again. Closed today 81.47, down 5.4 basis points but down 1.4% on the week. Euro and yen went nowhere big. Euro climbed to $1.3303 today (up 0.18%) and yen lost 0.37% to 99.21 cents/Y100.
Stocks proved a rally this week, or reacted positively to news that Syria would not immediately blow up the world. Dow closed up 75.42 today at 15,376.06 and S&P500 at 1687.99, up 4.57%. Heading up for a final top, I reckon.
I'm going back to the beach.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday
© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.