Thursday, September 26, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices have Established an Uptrend

Gold Price Close Today : 1323.60
Change : -12.30 or -0.92%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.720
Change : -0.118 or -0.54%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.939
Change : -0.234 or -0.38%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01641
Change : 0.000063 or 0.38%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1410.20
Change : -18.10 or -1.27%

Palladium Price Close Today : 722.15
Change : -2.05 or -0.28%

S&P 500 : 1,698.67
Change : 5.90 or 0.35%

Dow In GOLD$ : $239.40
Change : $ 3.06 or 1.29%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.581
Change : 0.148 or 1.29%

Dow in SILVER oz : 705.72
Change : 6.33 or 0.91%

Dow Industrial : 15,328.30
Change : 55.04 or 0.36%

US Dollar Index : 80.548
Change : 0.203 or 0.25%

The GOLD PRICE crawfished $12.30, dropping to $1,323.60. Silver backed off 11.8 cents to 2172c.

Looking at yesterday and today, the gold price may have made an island reversal downward. Yesterday the GOLD PRICE gapped up from about $1,325 to $1,336, traded sideways above $1,332 yesterday and today, then today from $1,332 gapped down to $1,321.60. Clearly it had not yet strength enough to poke through resistance above $1,337, but was strong enough to hold on above $1,320. Gold's as confused as other markets.

So is the SILVER PRICE, yet both silver and gold prices have established a short term uptrend that began with the low on 18 September. Gold's rise has been blocked by $1,340 and silver's by 2200c, but both have been making higher lows. The pattern is a rising flat-topped triangle, a form that usually breaks out upside.

Both silver and gold prices remain in suspense. My assumption continues unbroken that the low for the 2011-2013 correction was posted on 27 June 2013.

Questioning my urgent encouragement yesterday to get out of debt, one reader wrote, "I thought it's good to be a borrower during periods of high inflation. I was thinking of keeping a modest mortgage on this place."

Logic here is that you will repay in dollars cheaper than you borrowed. While that is abstractly true, there's no guarantee that those cheaper dollars will come easier to you than today's dollars. Suppose your wages don't keep pace with inflation, as they never do.

Ignoring also the larceny that dwells in that logic, my get-out-of-debt warning springs from a far deeper motive: you can't break a man that don't borrow. Debt makes you vulnerable because unlike the yankee government, you can't print dollars. You must earn dollars to make payments on the debt, or lose the collateral, maybe even go bankrupt. Problem with a "modest" mortgage is that debt, like whiskey, intoxicates. We take on a little, it makes us feel richer, stronger, braver, better looking, smarter, so we keep adding modest amounts until we're debt-drunk and have sold ourselves into lifetime debt slavery.

Getting out of debt won't deliver you entirely from our lunatic financial and economic system, but it will extricate you from the banks, and put your feet on your own, owned dirt, small and lowly tho it be. You'll be that rarest of creatures today: a debtl-free man.

To me that outweighs the delicious pleasure of cheating a cheater, i.e., paying a bank back with cheaper dollars.

Up one day, down the next, back and forth but without the order or purpose of a pendulum. That's the markets.

Stocks rose because . . .they've been falling for 5 days? Dow hit its 50 day moving average, so we can credit that with the bounce. I suspect buyers are holding off waiting for the government goofs to do something about the debt ceiling.

Dow rose 0.36% (55.04) to 15,328.30. S&P500 rose 5.9 (0.35%) to 1,698.67. May be forming a bullish falling wedge, which would reverse the market upward.

Dow in gold rose slightly, 1.29% to 11.581 oz (G$239.40 gold dollars). Dow in silver gained 0.35% (5.9 oz) to 705.72 oz. Downtrends remain unbroken.

US dollar index rose 20.3 basis points or 0.26%. Unless the dollar can climb above 81.50, it remains in peril of falling through 79.50 and jumping off the Empire State Building.

The timid euro can't pull away from resistance line around $1.3500. Lost 0.27% today to $1.3488. One expects that a punch through resistance as it did about a week ago would carry it higher, but it hasn't. That signals weakness. RSI has rolled over. Surely the euro is set in slippery places.

Yen remains in the downtrend that began in early August. Lost 0.51% today to end at 101.05 cents/Y100 and again below its 50 DMA.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.