Thursday, May 29, 2014

The Gold Price Closed at $1,256.30 Needs to Close Above $1,280

29-May-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,256.30-3.00-0.24%
Silver Price, $/oz18.98-0.05-0.27%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.1800.0230.04%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0151-0.0000-0.04%
Platinum Price1,462.10-3.30-0.23%
Palladium Price833.80-6.05-0.72%
S&P 5001,920.0310.250.54%
Dow in GOLD $s274.771.730.63%
Dow in GOLD oz13.290.080.63%
Dow in SILVER oz879.675.850.67%
US Dollar Index80.53-0.07-0.09%

The GOLD PRICE fell $3.00 to $1,256.30. Silver shaved off 5.2 cents to 1898.3c.

When you are reduced to saying stuff like, "Well, if silver were really weak it would have fallen more after that break," you're grabbing at straws. That's true, it seems contradictory and might point to underlying strength that the silver and gold price have not followed through lower after Monday's big fall, but that's a backhanded compliment -- like saying a boy is ugly as a bucket of slop but at least don't smell bad, too. Who wants to rank in that league?

Here's something better.

The SILVER PRICE reached a new low for the move today at 1878 cents, but did not finish the day down there. In a sort of Step 1 of a Key Reversal (if you count the day and not the Comex), it traded down to 1878c and was still there about 1:30 central time. Before I could make up my mind to buy a little, it shot up a dime. If it closes higher tomorrow, I'll think about calling that a reversal.

They needn't have bothered to open up gold trading today. High came at $1,260.60 and low at $1,250.90 -- why bother for a $10 trading range? If the last two day's pause marks roughly the halfway point of the decline, it should stop around $1,240 or $1,230. The GOLD PRICE now needs a close above $1,280 to turn around.

For all my bellyaching, I'm not shorting anything here and I find myself buying.

Stocks are hovering. All attention -- and money -- has been poured into the S&P500, and today it rose 10.25 (0.54%) to make another new all-time high. Closed at 1,920.03. Yet no other index, particularly not the Dow, has made a new high, save the Nasdaq 100, which is close. If those other indices fall back, that's sort of like a platoon all taking one step back and leaving one man standing forward when volunteers are called for. Should some of those others start climbing, it might send stocks on another two or three week jaunt upwards into a final high.

Dow gained 65.67 (0.39%) to 16,698.74.

Dow in metals bumped up again. Dow in gold hit 13.29 oz (G$274.43 gold dollars), up 0.57%. Dow in Silver ended up 0.4% at 878.23 oz (S$1,135.49 silver dollars), a new high for the move. Going higher.

US dollar index, although it has pierced its 200 DMA (80.46) and remains above it, has backed off. Today it gave away 7 basis points and ended at 80.53. Technically it ought to head higher, but when? Euro gained the 0.08% today that the dollar index lost, but remains below its 200 DMA. Central banks fear markets as much as markets fear them. They dread to disappoint markets, so with all expecting some "easing" from the ECB, they will likely do so next week. Anyway, decision appears to have been colluded on amongst the central banks to let the euro fall.

What bothers my mind most about the dollar is that its movements overlap, like a corrective and not an advancing wave.

Yen rose 0.5% to 98.26, lost as a golfball in high weeds and baffled as a hog with a sidesaddle. In a nothing-much uptrend, but must clear 200 DMA and 99c/Y100 before it goes anywhere.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.