| 25-Apr-14 | 2-May-14 | Change | % Change | |
| Gold Price, $/oz. | 1,300.70 | 1,302.60 | 1.90 | 0.1 |
| Silver Price, $/oz. | 19.69 | 19.49 | -0.20 | -1.0 |
| Gold/silver ratio | 66.056 | 66.827 | 0.772 | 1.2 |
| Silver/gold ratio | 0.0151 | 0.0150 | -0.0002 | -1.2 |
| Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) | 260.03 | 262.05 | 2.02 | 0.8 |
| Dow in gold ounces | 12.58 | 12.68 | 0.10 | 0.8 |
| Dow in Silver ounces | 830.91 | 847.16 | 16.25 | 2.0 |
| Dow Industrials | 16,361.46 | 16,512.89 | 151.43 | 0.9 |
| S&P500 | 1,863.40 | 1,881.14 | 17.74 | 1.0 |
| US dollar index | 79.83 | 79.56 | -0.27 | -0.3 |
| Platinum Price | 1,422.80 | 1,439.70 | 16.90 | 1.2 |
| Palladium Price | 811.45 | 812.55 | 1.10 | 0.1 |
Whoa! Today was an unexpectedly strong day for silver and GOLD PRICES. Stocks rose again today but find their progress mired deeper and deeper in mud. White metals gained, while the US dollar index has joined the ranks of the walking dead.
Copper still hasn't without qualification confirmed it does not intend to become cheaper than gully dirt. From its March $2.877 low it has continued to rally, got as high as $3.14, but dropped off this week. 200 DMA hovers above at $3.21. Falling copper prices suggest trouble for stocks and "deflation," which ain't been seen in these parts (by which I mean the Earth) since 1933, and won't be as long as those rotten central banks keep inflating. Of course, expecting them not to inflate is like expecting a tick not to suck your blood.
The SILVER PRICE ballooned 50.3 cents (2.7%) to end at 1949.2c. The GOLD PRICE leapt $19.50 (1.5%) for a $1,302.60 Comex close.
Y'all remember that on last Thursday silver and gold prices both broke into new lows for the move then surged back dramatically to close higher? Something similar happened today, which after this past week was a welcome surprise.
Sellers began hammering gold from $1,285 about 9:30, and hit it hard, Gold reeled back to $1,272.90, traded back up within 30 minutes, then sellers hit it again just before 11:00. No good, couldn't break it. About 11:30 gold shot skyward like a 4th of July rocket, all the way to a $1,302.90 high and closed Comex up there. Only thing better would have been a close over $1,305 resistance.
But silver was leading the way today. It broke very little against a 9:30 attach, from 1920c down to 1891c. After a pause for breath, sliver took wings and flew to 1970c, then closed at 1949.2.
What meaneth this bragging? Simply that both markets surprised sellers with their strength at those lose, which now seem "sold out." By that I mean there are no more sellers lurking around those lows, only buyers.
But dealing with markets is like being married to a bad jealous woman, you have to keep proving yourself every day. So, too, silver must pull on its 7-league boots and step out over 1950c, then quickly 2000c. 20 DMA is at 1965c, and that's the first milestone. MACD is trying to turn up.
To prove today was not merely a fluke occasioned by shorts covering their positions before the weekend, next week the gold price must better $1,305. Above that gold must pierce the last (April) high at $1,331.40.
For the second time this week, the Feds fired their bully blarney cannon, but instead of a bang, 'twas only a burp. FOMC announcement on Wednesday hardly moved markets. Today the lying yankee government made its lying jobless report. To hear them tell it, the jobless rate fell from 6.7% to 6.3%, but that's all guesses piled on speculation and estimates. Yet the lie gained little. Markets feinted a reaction, then went their own way.
I know not the cause beneath this, but sure as a dead pig gets high in July, it ain't an America-wide outbreak of rationality. Stock markets are tired, and it takes a lot to get tired folks excited. Government needs to up the ante -- speaking of that, Obama's doing a great job of stumbling toward world war. Maybe that's the fall-back distraction.
It's not a sign of wiry strength when during a day markets break to new highs for the move, then close lower. It whispers that resolve and direction are wanting. Dow today high a new high for the move (16,620) but for the second day running closed lower, by 45.98 (0.28%) to 16,512.89. Two days ago the Dow made a new all time high at 16,580.84. So did the S&P500 (1,883.95), but also for the second day closed lower. Both remain, however, broken out over their downtrend lines, so you can expect they will struggle to higher prices in May. That will probably mark the ultimate top.
I spent time gawking and gazing at the Dow in Silver Chart today, and have a better target for the ultimate top. It draweth nigh, and should not exceed 917 oz (S$1,185.62 silver dollars). A little more likely is 890 oz (S$1,150.71). Today the DiS fell 2.73% to 845.73 oz (S$1,093.47). Since June last year the DiS has formed a rising wedge. At the reversal the DiS should break down out of that wedge.
Dow in Gold may have already turned down at end-December, but that's a long shot because it stands above all its moving averages. Momentum is upward, even though MACD and stochastics are not optimistic. Closed down 1.5% at 12.70 oz (G$262.53 gold dollars).
US dollar index reminds me of one of those silent movies where the hero is hanging onto the lip of a cliff by his fingernails, and they start breaking. Since February it has bounced off the narrowing sides of an even-sided triangle. Thrice now hath it touched the bottom boundary, thrice bounced. That increases the odds it won't bounce again. This is my arcane and obscure way of saying that the US dollar index must turn and climb soon or fall off that cliff.
Lo, y'all may observe the Dollar's flakiness in today's chart. On that prevaricating jobs report it shot clean up about 8:30, from 79.60 to 79.85, traded sideways a couple of hours, then fell like Congressman Wilber Mills when he went swimming in that Washington fountain with his girlfriend, stripper Fanne Foxe. Has all the flavor of an island reversal without the gaps.
Meanwhile the euro rallies, but without conviction. UP 0.8% today after a near nasty fall, to close at $1.3879. Yen also reacted in mirror image to the dollar, with an initial fall followed by sudden rise. Closed up 0.11% at 97.85 cents/Y100.
Ten year treasury yield fell today to its lowest level this year, 2.591%. That suggests investors are crowding into bonds, scared by stocks.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.
