Wednesday, June 25, 2014

The Gold Price Inched Up Closing at $1,322.20

25-Jun-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,322.201.300.10%
Silver Price, $/oz21.110.070.35%
Gold/Silver Ratio62.631-0.156-0.25%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01600.00000.25%
Platinum Price1,475.201.300.09%
Palladium Price834.252.450.29%
S&P 5001,959.539.550.49%
Dow in GOLD $s263.710.510.20%
Dow in GOLD oz12.760.020.20%
Dow in SILVER oz798.99-0.43-0.05%
US Dollar Index80.28-0.12-0.15%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE inched up another $1.30 (0.1%) to $1,322.20 but stalled still at the $1,226.50 point, as it did yesterday. Silver made good its escape from 2100c by adding 7.3 cents (0.35%) to close Comex at 2111.1c.

I won't be at peace with the SILVER PRICE chart until it resolves that flag formation by a higher close. Otherwise it might be a bearish flag, because it slants up. Another long-legged rise tomorrow removes that cavil. With gold's chart I raise the same quibble.

Ideally the GOLD PRICE would race tomorrow and pierce $1,331.40 resistance, while silver punches through 2150c, better yet, 2180c.

About 12:00 a.m. eastern time, which I calculate about 6:00 a.m. London, while not a lot of folks are trading, some mad dog seller forced silver down instantaneously to 2081c and gold to $1,311. Considering both came roaring back from that body-blow, silver and gold prices performed quite strongly today.

There's another leg up before this rally-ette corrects, I expect.

Rotten day for the US dollar index. It lost 12 basis points to close 80.28, then in aftermarket trading has lost another 7 basis points. The Commerce Department said US gross domestic product fell at an annualized 2.9% in 1Q14, instead of 1% as reported last month. Worst performance in five years. That leaves investors expecting more money printing from the Fed, and hence a lower dollar.

Dollar has broken twice-verified support at 80.20, and traded back up to it, with a low today at 80.09. Messy, messy. Fell below internal resistance line about 80.25, and tried to plunge through the 50 DMA (80.17). All systems set to crash, so somebody better call for the Nice Government men to bail out the dollar.

Euro rose again by 0.17% to $1.3630, but remains beneath its 200 DMA ($1.3630). Crossing above that would confirm it means to rally a while.

Big action came in the yen today, up 0.07% to 98.17, enough to fracture the downtrend line and stretch a hand toward the 200 DMA (98.52). Since February yen has ranged from 99.24 to 96.05, sliding slightly down. A close above 99.24 brings the yen to escape velocity.

The 10 year Treasury Note Yield (a proxy for US interest rates) fell 1.04% to 2.559%. It had traded plumb up to its downtrend line, poked its head through last Friday, but has fallen back below the 20 DMA. Not yet. Interest rates aren't ready -- or able -- to rise just yet.

Stocks stopped at old resistance boundaries they threw over in June, and right near 20 day moving averages. Doesn't say much. Dow bounced up 49.38 (0.29%) to 16,867.51 and the S&P500 scratched up 9.55 (0.49%) to 1,959.53. See S&P500 chart here,, and Dow here,

Both markets have been forming a bearish rising wedge since March, and both threw over the top line of that wedge in June. Now they have traded back to the apex of the wedge, so if they close much below today's low, they will break down and plunge.

Dow in silver kept on falling today while the Dow in Gold went flat. DiS scraped off 0.66% (5.32 oz) to end at 798.80 oz (S$1,032.79 silver dollars). 200 day moving average lies a bare eight ounces lower at 790.87 (S$1,022.54). Dow in Silver is becoming right overbought, a warning sign it might turn and correct.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.