Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Silver and Gold Prices Have Found their Feet, the Gold Price Must Hold $1,145

11-Nov-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,162.803.200.28%
Silver Price, $/oz15.66-0.01-0.04%
Gold/Silver Ratio74.2340.2370.32%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0135-0.0000-0.32%
Platinum Price1,207.20-0.20-0.02%
Palladium Price772.356.450.84%
S&P 5002,039.681.420.07%
Dow in GOLD $s313.15-0.84-0.27%
Dow in GOLD oz15.15-0.04-0.27%
Dow in SILVER oz1,124.550.580.05%
US Dollar Index87.61-0.29-0.33%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart

The GOLD PRICE added $3.20 to close at $1,162.80 Silver lost 7/10 of a cent today to shutter the Comex at $15.664.

Both silver and GOLD PRICES have flashed reliable buy signals by closing above and inside their Bollinger Bands. This shouts that some kind of rally will follow, but doesn't offer many details.

Five day charts for silver and gold prices both show upward reversals.

As recently as mid-September you could have bought US 90% coin at a wholesale premium of 30 cents an ounce over its melt value. Last Friday it cost $1.75 an ounce over spot, and that jumped yesterday to $2.25. These are stark gains that point to demand outstripping supply of physical silver, pushing up the price.

The US Mint announced in the last week that it was temporarily suspending sales of 2014 silver American Eagles because it was out of stock. Silver Maple Leaves are delayed three weeks. Premiums on silver rounds are have crept up 5 cents.

A "premium" over the melt value implies that people are willing to pay ABOVE THE PAPER MARKET PRICE to secure the silver in hand. In the panic of 2008 we saw premiums on silver items climb above 50%. The paper price became a joke, because you couldn't buy silver anywhere at that price, and if you could convince anybody to sell you silver, you had to wait eight weeks.

Clearly, we aren't there now, but that leaping premium on US 90% says there is plenty of physical demand under the silver market.

I want more confirmation, especially a gold price above $1,180, but it's beginning to look like silver and gold prices have found their feet. The SILVER PRICE must hold today's low at $15.44 and the gold price must hold $1,145.

If all this holds, then tomorrow ought to see silver and gold at higher prices.

When a market tops it will often reach back toward that top several times, only to be slapped back again. That leaves behind a series of lower highs and higher lows.

So appeareth now the US dollar index, which today lost 29 basis points or 0.32% to end at 87.61. Oh, three days don't make a trend, but the indicators look tired. Next big move should be down.

Euro rose today 0.42% to $1.2474, no big shakes but better that the low three days ago at $1.2359. Trying to turn up, but without energy or conviction. I reckon you ought to expect that when the people who manage the yen announce they are printing quadrillions more, it ought to establish a downtrend, and it has. Lost another 0.77% today to 86.42, a new low and new low close for the move.

I note in passing that US and British regulators are preparing to settle with giant banks suspected of manipulating currency markets. The US CFTC is expected to fin Barclays, JPMORGAN Chase, Citigroup, UBS, Royal bank of Scotland, UBS, and HSBC some $300 million each. The Briitsh regulators are talkking a settlement, but no figures have been mentioned. Other inquiries are going forward agianst Bank of America.

Res ipsa loquitur. Would you pay a $300 million fine if you hadn't done anything wrong? I wouldn't pay a $20 fine if I hadn't done anything wrong, but I'm from Tennessee. Makes you wonder just how "free" markets under government "oversight" really are.

Stocks have dazzled with a five day run of new highs on lower and lower volume, which witnesses they are running out of gas. Dow today rose 1.16 or 0.1% to 17,614.90. SUP rose a little more 07% (1.42) to 2,039.68. Both are bumping hard against overhead resistance. Warning flags are piling up, but that's only the view of a natural born fool from Tennessee.

Just to bring y'all up to date, the Dow in Gold hit a high 6 November at 15.381 oz or G$317.95 gold dollars and today dropped 1% to end at 15.15 oz or G$313.18. It's left a kind of vibrating zig-zag since then and begun stepping back from an extremely overbought state. This is the key indicator for the entire market party. Until it turns down, decisively down, silver and gold will suffer like a blood bank facing withdrawals from Dracula -- stocks will pull into themselves all the money in the world.

Dow in silver saw its high on 5 November at 1,143.15 ounces or S$1,478.01 silver dollars. Since it has zigzagged down, and today lost 0.55% to 1,123.54 oz S$1,452.66. Both the DIG and DIS are rattling on uptrend lines which so far have held as support. Breaking those promises to send them plummeting as fast as they soared in October.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.