|Gold Price, $/oz||1,167.40||-2.00||-0.17%|
|Silver Price, $/oz||15.93||-0.25||-1.53%|
|Dow in GOLD $s||307.83||0.84||0.27%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||14.89||0.04||0.27%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||1,091.47||17.82||1.66%|
|US Dollar Index||87.16||-0.25||-0.29%|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
Before I launch in to hopeful signs for metals, here's a little explanation.
Bollinger Bands are a technical indicator that measure a market's volatility. The lines are marked usually at one standard deviation on either side of a moving average. (Standard deviation measures variability, leave it at that.) In a normal distribution of readings, 68% of all readings fall within two standard deviations of an average, plus or minus. So if Bollinger Bands cover two standard deviations around a moving average, they should contain about 2/3 of all possible readings (or prices, in this case).
Hence the Bollinger Bands' value as a technical indicator: Whenever a market leaps outside those bounds, it is surpassingly low or surpassingly high.
An article today brought to my attention today GOLD PRICE performance against its Bollinger Bands: day before yesterday it punched out the bottom. Even if you expand the BB to four standard deviations, which covers 95% of what you expect to see, it just about touched that.
First point is, that makes gold way oversold.
Second point is, that when the gold price punches that line, it usually turns around in a few days.
Let's pile up a third point. The RSI is monstrously oversold & the full stochastic is turning up. And volume has dried up on the downside moves.
Don't misunderstand me. There are signs the gold price is about to turn up, but even if it rises, it might merely stage a corrective rally, then drop more. We have to see yet what gold makes out of any rally.
To this picture silver adds dropping downside volume and an oversold RSI. More, that premium on US 90% silver coin keeps rising, a harbinger of higher silver prices.
But whenever the last bottom comes, it draweth nigh, I believe.
Well, I feel better today. After all, ain't none of us getting out of here alive, so we might as well enjoy it while we're here. Also, I got to thinking about that silver & gold & it may not look so hopeless after all.
US dollar index, measure of the ineffable because immaterial value of the US dollar against other immaterial currencies, "fell" today 25 basis point (0.29%) to 87.16. That does nothing to disturb the working technical hypothesis that it's going higher.
Did y'all ever wonder what would happen if we all stopped pretending the US dollar had value?
Euro rose 0.51% to $1.2546, but don't know no more about rallying than a cat knows about integral calculus. Judging from now, euro'll be lucky if it don't fall below $1.00. But the euro ain't near about as sick at the yen. It rose 0.28% today to 88.02 cents/Y100. Since its high on 15 October, the yen has lost 7.4% to its lowest level since January 2008. Nothing to catch it above 80.55.
Stocks slept again today. Dow added 17.6 (0.1%) to 17,383.84 but the S&P500 lost 5.71 (0.28%) to 2,012.10. They will rise further. The Fed by extending this artificial rally has only guaranteed the eventual decline will be more catastrophic.
Dow in Gold skootched down 0.14% to G$307.60 gold dollars (14.88 oz). It's nearly as overbought as it has been at any time in the last five years. The MACD is high, rate of change enormous, and stochastics ready to turn down. It is beginning to appear that its next big move will be down, not up.
Dow in silver rose 0.82% to end the day at S$1,403.87 silver dollars or 1,085.81 troy ounces. Everything I said about the Dow in Gold goes for the Dow in Silver, only more so.
Sounds nuts, but we may look back here and ask, "Why in the world couldn't we see that was a bottom?"
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.