|Gold Price, $/oz.||1,175.20||1,190.10||14.90||1.3|
|Silver Price, $/oz.||15.489||16.196||0.707||4.6|
|Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)||313.60||311.94||-1.66||-0.5|
|Dow in gold ounces||15.17||15.09||-0.08||-0.5|
|Dow in Silver ounces||1,151.03||1,108.84||-42.18||-3.7|
|US dollar index||88.41||89.36||0.95||1.1|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
This looks and sounds rotten till looking closer you observe that neither closed below its 20 day moving average, so momentum remains upward. Yes, today disappointed me and looks rotten, but think back on silver's spectacular performance Monday. It was driven down to $14.15 and rose back as high as $16.81, a 19% range on the low! I don't believe I have ever seen an exhibition of strength quite like that.
Nor did the GOLD PRICE lag far behind. That day it ranged from $1,141.70 to $1,221.00, 7%, crashing resistance at $1,177.50, $1,205, and only skidding to a stop at $1,218.
All this, believe it or not, leaves an uptrend, however uninspiring. Since silver on that wild day exceeded the lowest price I could envision, $14.65, for the time being I am accepting that as the price low for the entire correction -- I mean the LAST one. But that doesn't mean silver and gold prices will take off from here, because after 3-1/2 years' damage, they have a lot of rebuilding to do.
So I think we've seen the lows, but silver and gold prices have to confirm that by throwing a leg over those levels where they broke down this fall, that is, $1,200 and $18.60.
Now that I think about it, metals' performance on Monday was the exact opposite of that crushing attack in April 2013. Mmmm.
Following appeared yesterday on Zero Hedge at http://bit.ly/12sE2L1 and I couldn't resist opening with it today. Kyle Bass said, "Buying gold is just buying a put against the idiocy of the political cycle. It's that simple."
The week ended in much higher silver and gold prices, but a disappointment today. Stocks are inching toward the cliff-edge ("Yeah, I know, Moneychanger, I've heard that before!" Well, just wait.) and the white metals, platinum and palladium lost traction. Big gainer was the US dollar, parasite of nations, vector and carrier of monetary disease.
Stocks are pushing farther and farther into never-never land. I don't think they will be easily weaned off their addiction to Quantitative Easing, since that's the only force that's been driving them the past five years. I'm just a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, but I am a realist. Think about somebody addicted to meth, a housewife, say. Man, when she first gets started on meth, she has the CLEANEST house in town. She's got everything in order, and she's scurrying around with efficiency born of speed. She manages this for a while very well, but then the meth starts taking its toll. She slows down, and now she has to have it. She starts scratching herself and gets scabs all over her face, then her teeth start falling out. The collapse of this addiction is not far off.
That's about where I figure stocks are. The house is still spotless, the meals still cooked, the kids still picked up on time, but the scabs are starting to show. It won't be long now. But it looks bang-up till it crashes.
Dow today made a new high, up 58.69 (0.33%) to 17,958.79, blowing its hot breath on the back of 18,000's neck. S&P500 rose 3.45 (0.17% to a marginal new high at 2,075.37.
Silver and gold disappointed me today, but little of that showed in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. DiG rose 1.46% to G$311.31 (15.06 oz). Worst thing about that? It cut into and through the 20 DMA at G$309.04 (14.95 oz). DiG is working a megaphone or broadening top, and could rise as high as G$314.3 (15.22 oz) without breaking out of that megaphone.
Dow in Silver also punched into its 20 DMA, but less so. Closed up 1.59% to S$1,425.82 silver dollars (1,102.78 troy ounces) against the 20 DMA at S$1,422.02 (1,099.84 oz). DiS could rise over S$1,486.87 (1,150 oz) without breaking out of that megaphone.
I repeat, these are the indicators that tell us when stocks have peaked against silver and gold. And when stocks have peaked, silver and gold will have made their price lows.
That wedge implies the dollar is nearing the end of its upthrust, and should soon correct downward. This doesn't say anything about the dollar's performance next year, which the chart presently forecasts as much higher.
Does a higher dollar seal silver and gold's fate? Not necessarily. They can rise right along with the dollar if stocks are tanking and wallowing.
By the way, looking at a chart for the last three days, I simply would NEVER have expected the Dollar Index to rise. Looked like it was in the middle of an unfinished correction, but the Official Lies from the Labor Department today, the (un-)jobs report, goosed the dollar index higher. Yeah, buddy! That there's rational, ain't it?
The euro yesterday appeared ready to rally, but today gave up all yesterday's game and then some, posting a new low close for the move, $1.2288, down 0.74%. As the dollar hath formed a rising edge, so hath the euro formed a falling wedge, which genrally breaks out upward. So the dollar rising/euro falling game has just about played out.
Anybody still care about the yen? It dropped 1.42% to 82.31, and Abe is in a fight for his political life. He is likely to win on 14 December, which means the yen will sink like an iron anvil pushed overboard in the South China Sea.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.