|Gold Price, $/oz||1,206.90||-20.90||-1.70%|
|Silver Price, $/oz||17.05||-0.66||-3.74%|
|Dow in GOLD $s||313.65||5.57||1.81%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||15.17||0.27||1.81%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||1,074.04||40.91||3.96%|
|US Dollar Index||95.36||1.10||1.17%|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
Both SILVER and GOLD PRICES sank beneath their 200 DMAs today. Now the gold price stands at all that support around $1,200 - $1,205. The silver price has support at $17.00, but more at $16.80. Gold's strongest support stands around $1,180.
Two ways to look at this. If silver and gold prices suddenly turn back up, it's merely a short correction in a much larger rally. If they stall and fall & trade sideways for a month, they're not ready to rally yet. If gold can hold above $1,195 and silver above $16.80, they'll look strong. Otherwise they can lollygag into seasonal low time in June.
Because previous declines have been stopped at the uptrend line from the December bottom, I expect that to stop them again.
Top triangle boundary for silver is about $16.65 tomorrow.
Now look at that: either way I view those charts, I come up with a silver support at $16.60 - $16.80 and GOLD PRICE at $1,180. Always comforting when you arrive at the same answer figuring two different ways, sort of like "casting out nines."
I'm going to be watching close as a mongoose at a snakehole the next couple of days and if silver or gold draw near $16.80 and $1,180 (maybe $1,190), I'll buy some.
But what do I know? Where I live electricity ain't been invented yet!
For my paid Moneychanger monthly newsletter I interviewed Keith Weiner in April. Keith has a fresh and enlightening view of the outworking of zero interest rates. Article is "The ZIRP Boomerang, Conceptual Blindness, & the Way Out." See http://the-moneychanger.com/articles/keith_weiner_april-2015 I also recommend the Gold Standard Institute, http://goldstandardinstitute.us/
I think I'll blame today's gold & silver performance on the US dollar index. Yeah, that works. Say, I can blame it on stocks, too!
As it happens, I am not that desperate, or quite naïve enough yet to attach silver and gold price movements to a single cause, however much the media likes that approach. It is, as the sophisticated like to say, more "nuanced" than that. (Next thing you know I'll be wearing pointy-toed patent leather shoes.)
Wreaking the vengeance of a falling wedge, the US dollar index today came blowing up out of that wedge's point and rose 110 basis points (1.16%) to close at 95.36, just above its 20 DMA (95.28). Well, come on now. After it fell from 100.27 to 93.15 without much of a rally, it's entitled to a little snapback now.
Since ALL (that's a-l-l) currency exchange rates are manipulated, we can't know whether this was a deal among our friends at the Fed with the ECB and BOJ friends, or just the market still hot to buy dollars because they worked for 10 months. By now, though, after all the pain the high dollar caused, I'd bet the Fed doesn't really want it to keep rallying. Technically it's goose is cooked, and cooked geese don't fly. This is a countertrend rally.
The Frankenkurrency, the euro, lost 1.44% to $1.1149, ignominiously gapping down. Y'all do understand why I emphasize these gaps, up or down? They witness an extraordinarily strong move, usually the foretaste of more moves to come in the same direction. Euro fell plumb to its 20 DMA & closed there. In this case, the euro also pierced its uptrend line, calling its rally into question. Man, that is one sorry currency, even amongst a world of sorry fiat currencies. How do you say "most scrofulous"?
Yen has sunk for 4 days, until now it's back below its 20 & 50 DMAs & headed for the bottom of the range (82.25). Sick as a dog.
Inflation markets don't look too pert today either. WTIC walked through its uptrend line days ago but hasn't followed through with a breakdown. Closed down 3.93% at $57.99/barrel today, just below its 20 DMA. Gravity's catching up with it. Copper took a nasty fall below its 200 dma today, which it had been riding. That party's over for a while.
Yields on the 10 and 30 year US treasuries rose again today. That makes their trip back to the 200 DMA look like a touchback before moving higher. Janet Yellen's going to be wishing she had another job, maybe operating an elevator someplace or changing tires.
Inching to a new high on measly volume, the Dow rose 13.51 (0.07%) to 18,312.39, a new high NOT confirmed by the S&P500. It lost 1.37 (0.06%) to 2,127.83.
Y'all ever involved in waiting for a baby to be born? You know the due date, but you keep thinking, "Well, maybe two more weeks, but maybe we have to go tonight." Same thing with stocks right now. Dow could rise another 200 points and I wouldn't be surprised, or they could fall 500 tomorrow. Either way, they will be lower a month from now, or my name's not Peg Leg Pete.
Wait -- that's not my name.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.