|Gold Price, $/oz||1,147.20||-29.80||-2.53%|
|Silver Price, $/oz||15.54||-0.74||-4.57%|
|Dow in GOLD $s||319.95||7.68||2.46%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||15.48||0.37||2.46%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||1,142.29||50.72||4.65%|
|US Dollar Index||97.35||-0.52||-0.53%|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
Today's close finally finished erasing the gold price October gains by falling below $1,150 again. If it continues to fall the uptrend line from July is the most obvious target, about $1,120.
Y'all know that when you have been thoroughly whipped, it's hard to catch your breath and turn around and fight. So when a market has disappointed you, you tend to extend the move all the way out into the future forever, world without end. Well, hang on. the gold price low today marks a 50% retracement of the move that began on 1 October. Commitments of Traders reports for silver and gold prices are, it's true, not optimistic. But stocks have now reached overbought on their RSI and the dollar index is only a gnat's whisker from the same. Maybe those moves have reached their upper limit, while metals have reached their lower limit.
SILVER needs to turn around here, or all that trading through October looks like a top. If it catches no traction here, it could fall to $15 again, where the uptrend from August now stands.
Looking at these charts, as I said, leaves me feeling like I've been sortin' wildcats. Unless silver and gold can immediately reverse upward AND exceed recently posted peaks, they will keep falling.
The FOMC blew smoke again, and markets bought it. It's either luck or a pact with the devil, I'll let y'all figure out which, cause I don't believe in luck. They sang the same We're Gonna Raise Rates Someday tune again, and markets bought it. To those whose head is not addled by fumes from a mountain fruit jar, clearly those knotheads fear to raise rates the way a slow snake fears a sharp hoe. But never mind, the party's on again, after only six weeks of bear market worry, and stocks are a-chargin'.
Whether it makes fundamental economic sense or not, stocks have risen high enough to call into question the lethality and permanence of the August break. They have climbed back above the 200 day moving average and risen to challenge the upside-down bowl topping formation.
If they break through that bowl, then the August break was only a correction and not the beginning of a trend change. The Fed will have managed to delay the rout, but not forever.
Upon the FOMC's announcement the US dollar index jumped 87 basis points (0.9%) to 97.86. Since the US dollar is gold's chief competitor, that ain't good for gold. With that jump the dollar pierced the downtrend line from the March high. Today it touched back to that line, but that's normal.
Assuming the dollar confirms this rise by closing above the last high at 98.43, y'all can expect the dollar to continue the rise it began in July 2014, targetting roughly 108.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.