Friday, February 05, 2016

Gold Price Rose Strongly This Week Up 3.7 Percent Closing at $1,157.80

29-Jan-165-Feb-16Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,116.401,157.8041.403.7
Silver Price, $/oz.14.22914.7640.5353.8
Gold/Silver Ratio78.45978.420-0.039-0.0
Silver/gold ratio0.01270.01280.00000.0
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)304.90289.33-15.57-5.1
Dow in gold ounces14.7514.00-0.75-5.1
Dow in Silver ounces1,157.241,097.60-59.63-5.2
Dow Industrials16,466.3016,204.97-261.33-1.6
US dollar index99.6497.01-2.63-2.6
Platinum Price872.30902.0029.703.4
Palladium Price497.50499.652.150.4

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Lo, the week speaketh, nor can be gainsaid! The SILVER and GOLD PRICE rose strongly, while stocks and the dollar took bullets from every side. Note also gains in platinum and palladium, reinforcing and confirming silver and gold prices. Dow in gold and Dow in silver both sank more than 5%. Dow/metals trend has turned decisively down.

On Comex today where mercy is neither shown nor asked, silver dropped 7.2¢ to close at $14.764. The GOLD PRICE added twenty cents (20, count 'em) to $1,157.80.

HOGWASH! Hogwash! In the aftermarket the gold price popped up $15.50 (1.3%) to $1,173.30. Silver popped 26.6¢ (1.8%) to -- LOOOKY HERE! -- $15.03.

There more, even better, but I'm saving it for later.

Daily chart makes me say HOGWASH. Right at 9:00 a.m. the price of gold gapped from $1,160 to $1,151. That's on a ONE minute chart. It eased down to $1,145, made a rounding bottom, and then right about when Comex closed, jumped, leapt from $1,150 to $1,157.50, traded sideways a while, then shot up.

The old slap-her-down-with-massive-selling aren't working anymore.

SILVER behaved much the same. Gapped down at 9:00 a.m. from $14.90 to $14.80, made a rounding bottom, then started climbing after Comex closed.

Gold Price
On the right the weekly gold price chart since 2013. Carefully mark that this week gold broke upwards through the downtrend line from the October 2012 high and poked its head way above the 50 week MA ($1,142.35). Weekly chart breakout confirms the daily chart breakout. Monthly does not yet show it, but that comes next.
Gold Price Daily

On silver's weekly chart there's a big bullish falling wedge, and silver barely peeked through the downtrend line this week. Didn't make it through the 50 Week MA. Chart on the left.

Silver Price Daily
Okay, silver and gold prices have turned up against stocks (Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver have turned down) and they have broken through the downtrend line from the Oct 2012 high on the daily chart, and gold has broken through on the daily. Here's gold's daily chart on the right, and silver's on the left, reaching for that 200 DMA,

Gold Price Possibility
What's next? Here is one possibility, and only a possibility. First look at the chart on the right, Between July and October gold traced what looks like a left shoulder of an upside-down head and shoulder pattern. Then it fell back to sketch out a big head with the bottom in December. Now it is outlining the right side of that head up to some Neckline, maybe about $1,175. From there it might back off and paint a right shoulder, backing up to $1,140, $1,125, or even $1,090. After terrorizing and shaking off as many gold buyers as possible, the bull would then turn up and rally through that neckline, never to return.

OR, when it reaches $1,190, it might just punch clean through and never look back.

I can't make up my mind which, but either way the silver and gold price bottomed back in December.

Stocks continue to spring bad surprises and unexpected disappointments. So far their way has been blocked at 16,600 and 1,950, as some fool guessed. Dow fell from the opening, down, down, down, then down some more. Ended 211.61 (1.29%) lower at 16,204.97. S&P500 ended 35.4 (1.85%) cheaper at 1,880.05. It begins to appear that stocks lack sufficient gumption even to mount a convincing countertrend rally. Y'all ought to be selling stocks and buying silver and gold with the proceeds.

Dow in Gold
More instructive still are the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver, for there we discern the great Wheels of the Universe creaking as they turn the primary trend, down for stocks and up for metals. Dow in Gold ended today (NOT based on Comex close) at 13.80 oz (G$285.27 gold dollars) which punches through support from February 2015 for the lowest close since August. More, it lodged a scant 3/10 ounce from 13.50 oz, which marks the uptrend line from the September 2011 low. Read that again, y'all, so you don't miss it or its significance. It's the last barrier for the Dow in Gold to prove it really did turn down in December. Behold the chart:

Dow in Silver
Dow in silver dropped 25.83 ounces today to end at 1,078.17. If it drops 24 more ounces, it will smash at 1,054 oz the uptrend line from the 2011 low. Do y'all understand this means the END of the bear market in silver and gold, and the end of the bull market in stocks?

US dollar index dead-cat-bounced 52 basis points (0.54%) to 97.01, just above the 200 DMA at 96.89. Looks broke as a stopped government clock to me. Closes below 96 confirm brokenness, below 95.5 plumb-brokenness, below 92.50 slap-out-brokenness.

Euro shot up Wednesday, gapped up yesterday, and backed off today 0.38% to $1.116.0 Above the 200 DMA and all others, so rallying. Might reach $1.1500. Yen must be chafing the Japanese Nice Government Men something fierce. They thought they'd fixed it good, driving it down with the surprise Negative interest rate announcement, but the dollar's dive this week sent it shooting up to HIGHER prices than before their manipulation. Today lost 0.03% to 85.58.

Please accept my heartfelt thanks for your continuing prayers for Susan's eye. It is healing slowly but she is still suffering much pain.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.