|Gold Price, $/oz||1,127.30||-0.60||-0.05%|
|Silver Price, $/oz||14.28||-0.05||-0.37%|
|Dow in GOLD $s||296.21||-5.26||-1.75%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||14.33||-0.25||-1.75%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||1,131.52||-16.45||-1.43%|
|US Dollar Index||98.86||-0.16||-0.16%|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|5 Year Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
|5 Year Silver Price Chart|
No market is infinitely flexible. Can't put off a decision forever. Therefore silver and gold prices must move decisively.
In January 2015 the GOLD PRICE rallied nearly to that downtrend line, even crossed above its 200 DMA, but failed. In May it reached again toward the line, peeked through the 200 DMA, but fell back. In October it pierced both barriers, only to fizzle out and waterfall to new lows.
Understand, when I say gold must fish or cut bait, I'm not just flapping my gums. As in life, if you're not moving forward you're falling back -- soon.
SILVERS story is similar. It has formed a bowl since November, and a bowl usually resolves by breaking upward. Lip of the bowl lies about $14.40 - $14.65. Call it $14.65 to get plumb clear. Silver tried in December, and failed. Tried again in December, and failed, and has failed twice in January. Keep failing, and the bowl turns into the type that flushes.
I think silver and gold are trying to rally, but no breakout, no rally.
Stocks lost big today. Dow tumbled 295.64 (1.8%) to 16,153.54. S&P500 lapsed 36.35 to 1,903.03, down 1.87%. Both closed BELOW their 20 day moving averages, so short term momentum is down although some indicators still point up. Greater volatility points out lower strength. Right now they need lows below 15,450 and 1,812 to turn them down. Probably will work higher so the bear can lure more incautious bovines into his lair, where he can maul them at will.
US dollar index is working hard to appear weak. Today again it tried to break down out of that wedge (or channel) formation earthward. closed below 20 and on the 50 day moving averages, down 16 basis points at 98.86. Where is the strength by which it vaulted on Friday? Vanished. Gone. If the dollar index breaks that 50 DMA (98.85) and that pattern's bottom boundary, there will be nothing to hold it up but Nice Government Men, and I hope they ain't the skinny, wormy ones.
Many thanks for your prayers for Susan's eye surgery last Tuesday. It was successful but more painful in recovery than we anticipated. Today it's improving, but still painful. Please remember her in your prayers.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.