|Silver Price, cents/oz.||1,568.10||1,560.70||-7.40||-0.5|
|Gold Price, dollars/oz.||1,269.90||1,258.70||-11.20||-0.9|
|Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)||276.84||282.70||5.86||2.1|
|Dow in gold ounces||13.39||13.68||0.28||2.1|
|Dow in Silver ounces||1,084.55||1,102.92||18.38||1.7|
|US dollar index||97.34||96.23||-1.11||-1.1|
First, a small meditation. Almost all of the US dollar index's rise from July 2014 was furnished by HOT AIR. That is, without doing anything substantial to improve the currency or economy, by continually hinting they would raise interest rates, Fed apparatchiki built the market's expectation the dollar must rise. They sent out their mouthpieces to jawbone, & of course other mouthpieces to counter-jawbone to make the scam more believable.
Central banks' credibility is vanishing. Yesterday Draghi announced ECB moves that should weaken the euro. Instead, they sent it shooting up and the dollar down. Reality is flying home to roost on the central banks. That's going to make a big, big mess.
TO MARKETS: The week's ending closes didn't answer the questions buzzing around my skull. SILVER and GOLD PRICES backed off for the week, but only today. Stocks would have been in negative territory had they not rallied today. Dollar index remains as weak & puking sick as an 11 year old learning to smoke cheap cigars -- puff & puke, puff & puke.
Today that US dollar index bounced the way a road-killed possum bounces when you pick him up with a shovel and throw him in the ditch. No life in it. It rose 11 basis points (0.11%) to close at 96.23. Dollar index has gotten down to serious stuff now, sunk down way below its 200 DMA (97.09) and hovering a bald 75 bips from that 92.50 live-or-die support. Next week won't be filled with gardenias for the dollar index.
Euro gave back some of its central-bank-ill-gotten gains from yesterday. Lost 0.3% to close at $1.1146. Mirror-imaging the dollar's plunge yesterday, today it eased off. However, technically it has broken out toward the sun. Yen gave back 0.54% today, ending at 87.86. Underneath its 20 DMA (88.28) but still hovering up high.
My land, stocks jes' showed out today! Dow pushed up 218.18 (1.28%) to a new high for 2015 at 17,213.31. S&P500 outdid the Dow, climbing 32.62 (1.64%) to 2,022.19. Makes you wonder what sort of lunatic enthusiasm could induce folk to bid that Dow up over the 200 DMA (17,153.24). Lawsy, the Wall Street media pimps will be crowing over that! I, on the other hand (and this might not surprise y'all much) see stocks reaching the outer limit of their upward correction. It's the bear luring more victims into his cave.
Even with gold down and the Dow up, the Dow in Gold couldn't climb above the uptrend line from the 2011 low. Pee-yuny. Ended at 13.76 oz.
Dow in silver is a little more complicated, but it, too, is retreating, dropping away from the 200 DMA (1,148.71 oz) & tapping on that post-2011 uptrend line. Ended today at 1,109.82 oz.
Both these charts are hinting stocks have not much further to climb.
The GOLD PRICE fell back $13.30 (1.05%) for a Comex close at $1,258.70. In the aftermarket it was trading at $1,250.60, $21.40 below yesterday's Comex close. The SILVER PRICE gained 6.1¢ (0.4%) to 1,560.7¢.
I hate to make a decision on one of those hysterical "Central bank threw a surprise party" days. That's why I was holding back yesterday. The CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports is negative for both silver and gold prices. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned down for both. RSI is heading down.
Now add to all that gold's retreat today, failing to build on yesterday's gain. Like Beauregard at First Manassas. And silver has gotten nowhere near its 1599¢ high. All this adds to the likelihood of a correction. Whip me if you want, that's what the charts say. I will clap my hand over my mouth and stand tear-drippin' and chastened if silver closes above 1599¢ AND gold closes over $1,280, because that will mean I am dead wrong about any correction.
But jes' because I'm a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee, even if the market whomps me this time, I'll go right back at it. Fools never learn. Shucks, that's what makes 'em fools!
Before I leave, I observe that silver and gold prices have broken out on their weekly charts and gold has broken out upside on its monthly chart, too. So what I am watching for is a correction, not a reversal of the trend. Trend turned up in December.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.