|Dow in GOLD $s||277.85||-1.56||-0.56%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||13.44||-0.08||-0.56%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||1,102.71||9.84||0.90%|
|US Dollar Index||97.21||-0.12||-0.12%|
Once again, gold failed to built on yesterday's gains. That's twice now, & I am keeping count. Once again, the bear flag upper boundary defeated gold.
US dollar index tangled its pinkies in its 200 DMA (intertwined with the 50) & tippy toed higher, closing just above the 97.10 200 DMA at 97.21, up a mighty 12 points (0.13%). Not enthusiastic or optimistic. The euro barely moved in closing terms, down 0.2% at $1.1012, but during the day it sought to pierce its 200 DMA at $1.1046 and failed wretchedly.
Hard to see how the euro will survive. 'Twas a rotten, unworkable Frankenstein currency to begin with, made no allowance for states that used inflation for huge swaths of their budget, and now Europe is suffering an immigrant invasion. Since the invasion suits the plans of the Insiders who run the politicians like Ferkel of Germany, the politicians won't oppose it while the people are writhing. I have not even mentioned Europe's rotten banks or sovereign debt problem. All this doth not a recipe for currency success make.
Japanese yen, sorry as it in reality is, has been the gainer from this turmoil. It rallied up to 90.05¢/Y100 (US$1=Y110.05) in February, then fell back to the 20 Day moving average, which caught it and threw it back up into the air. Today it gapped up slightly and closed 0.69% higher at 88.77¢. Count on it, this does NOT fit the plans of the Japanese Nice Government Men. They will act.
Like Superman before Kryptonite, like camellias before hard frost, like orange groves in a freeze, stocks hit those upper resistance levels today & wilted. Dow spilled 109.85 points somewhere (0.64%) to end at 16,964.10, beneath the magic 17,000. Lower, lower, lower slipped the S&P500, 22.5 lower (1.12%) to 1,979.26, waving bye-bye to 2,000. Backwards.
Dow in Gold sank again, to 13.44 oz (-0.17%) but not quite through its 20 DMA (13.41). Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver have diverged because of silver's relative weakness (high gold/silver ratio) so right now the Dow in Gold offers us a more accurate picture of the trend of stocks against metals.
Yield on the US treasury 10 year note fell 3.68% to 1.832%, sending the market's needle into "Risk Off" territory again. Oil backed off today as it tried to get through that 8 month downtrend line about $36.50. Closed just under the mark at $36.33, and that was 4.34% lower than yesterday. However, the uptrend from February remains unbroken.
Speaking of Broken, the market hit the trapdoor handle on junk bonds back when June 2015 began. From then to their low so far in mid-February, they lost 14%. They have rallied, as every broken market does from time to time, all the way back up to their breakdown point resistance. Today they dropped away from that resistance, which no coincidentally is near the 200 DMA. If this were a 1930s Tarzan movie, y'all would be hearing the drums beating out of the junk bond jungle, and you would see the safari bearers throwing down their bundles and hotfooting it home through the jungle. Bad juju in junk bond land.
Y'all do understand that the bond market is VASTLY larger & more important than the stock market, right?
On Comex the GOLD PRICE ebbed $1.10 (0.9%) to $1,262.10. This came after hitting a high at $1,279, higher than yesterday's, and closed near the $1,261 low.
The SILVER PRICE dwindled 23.9¢ (1.53%) to 1538.4¢ Mark also that platinum, which yesterday made a new recovery high close at $1,001.50, dropped back $12.60 (1.3%) to $988.90. Palladium fell $10.70 (1.9%) to $567.20.
Platinum's move up off its January low hit resistance that has stopped every advance since last August, and it stopped this one, too. Should retreat to $900 at least.
The PALLADIUM PRICE had gapped up on 1 March and yesterday gapped up again, which signals the death of the enthusiasm that sparked the move. Worse, it moved into new high territory today, then closed lower -- a lot lower by the end of the day. Back to $530 for palladium, do not pass go.
Gold did nothing to break the sullen bonds of gravity today. Failed to break above the top of that bear flag. Closed near the low. Calling for a correction.
Nor could silver climb higher today. Also closed at the bottom of the day's range. MACD is turning down, along with Rate of Change & RSI. Commitments of Traders are screaming correction, as they are for gold. Could reach 1440¢.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.