|Gold Price, $/oz||1,238.90||10.20||0.83%|
|Silver Price, $/oz||17.01||0.11||0.65%|
|Dow in GOLD $s||299.96||-2.94||-0.97%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||14.51||-0.14||-0.97%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||1,057.17||-8.39||-0.79%|
|US Dollar Index||94.81||-0.28||-0.29%|
Listen up! Go rent & watch the movie, "The Big Short." Don't wait, do it tonight. Naïve folks miss the point who watch it and say, "Why did so few people catch on that real estate and mortgages were in a bubble?" . Looking at that parabolic price graph for real estate, plenty of people caught on. Why didn't Wall Street catch on? Because they were making so much money. They could see, but they willed not to see. Go watch the movie.
First three days of this week will fester under the loathsome toadstool cloud of a Fed meeting and a Bank of Japan meeting in the same week. That will squelch markets, & make their intentions & direction opaque. Yea, Buddy, we need those stabilizing central banks! A country without a central bank is like a cockroach without a tuxedo.
Stocks hiccupped, nose underwater all day long. Dow ended 26.51 (0.15%) lower at 17,977.24. S&P500 coughed up 3.79 (0.18%) to fall to 2,087.79. What can Mrs. Toad, Janet, croak from beneath her toadstool that can fix a brokenstock market? It is laboring, struggling, drying up. She will mumble about maybe raising interest rates & croak out more double talk from both sides of her wide mouth, but the Fed is too scared to do anything drastic, like raising rates..
US dollar index spoke out of both sides of its mouth today, too. Backed off a big 28 basis points (0.28%) to 94.81. Remains above the 20 DMA (94.55) so remains positive, but take-off to a rally is like watching an airplane kids made out of a stuffed camel & cedar boards struggling to lift off the runway.
Interest rates (proxied by the 10 year US treasury note yield) have risen to their highest point since March, and the highest in April. Rose 0.74% to 1.902% today, but that's a long ways from any meaningful hurdle, although it is above the 50 & 20 day moving averages. 200 DMA stands at 2.073 and the downtrend line from 2007 is at 2.25. http://schrts.co/vUJO4G
Gold bounced back today, up $10.20 (0.83%) from Friday's Comex close to $1,238.90. Silver edged up 10.9¢ (0.64%) to 1700.5¢.
None of this scratches y'all's itch or mine. Little old one day bounce within a trading range answers no questions, raises no presumptions, and whoever acts on it does so at his own risk.
Looking at this chart, http://schrts.co/pI1ZgR it is plain that until gold conquers $1,287.80, the March high, you can't say it is rallying again. Likewise, it can fall as low as $1,218 without breaking the lower boundary of its 2-1/2 month range. Proverb says that bull markets try to shake of as many riders as possible. They do that with terror. What would terrorize gold investors? A drop to $1,192, the heel of the trading range, a smidge greater than a 38.2% correction. Gold may be lining up to do just that, since it closed today smack on its intertwined 20 & 50 DMAs.
However, gold won't spend more than one or two weeks in this correction, so that implies it will be shallow. If it offers you any dips, better hop on and buy fast.
Silver's chart, http://schrts.co/CqZ2b5 , is overbought on its indicators, and ripe for a correction. The bunched trading of the last five days, coming atop a strong advance in April with a pause in the middle to tap through that upper range boundary, also looks toppy. But whatever correction silver sees doesn't promise much. Might reach 1660¢, or in a terror 1591¢.
Both silver & gold remain steadfastly, stubbornly strong, adding yet another assurance to the conclusion they bottomed in December 2015.
I find myself in need of asking another favor from y'all. I am going to undergo surgery on 6 May for a hammertoe. Yes, I know, laugh because it sounds ridiculous, but it hurts seriously. I would very much appreciate y'all's prayers for a successful surgery and healing. Thanks in advance.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.