Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1274.60 up $10.70 or 0.85%

11-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,274.6010.700.85%
Silver Price, $/oz17.300.231.33%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.668-0.353-0.48%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01360.00010.48%
S&P 5002,064.46-19.93-0.96%
Dow in GOLD $s287.24-5.98-2.04%
Dow in GOLD oz13.90-0.29-2.04%
Dow in SILVER oz1,023.65-26.33-2.51%
US Dollar Index93.78-0.48-0.51%

I make it a point never to say, "I told y'all so," but remember what I said about the sudden stock rally yesterday? Well . . . 

All the air went out of stocks today, nearly all that had pumped them up yesterday on rumors of the Chinese government's magical measures to continue the bubble. Dow lost 217.23 (1.21%), leaving it exactly 5.21 points higher than day before yesterday and effectively erasing the 222.44 point gain Tuesday. S&P500 could not stand, either, and lost 19.93 (0.96%) to 2,064.46. 

Memorize: Bear market rallies are sudden, sharp, & short. They quickly give back all their gains. 
Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver have resumed their downward flight, after a small correction. They testify with one voice: Stocks are about to lose value against metals. Charts are at and 

US dollar index fainted at that top range boundary & 20 day moving average. Here's the chart, 

This tells us the dollar index has not yet repudiated its downtrend, because the range has been trending down. Of course, after rising for six days running, today was likely not much more than a normal correction. Dollar lost 48 basis points or 0.51%. Yen climbed 0.81% to 92.26. Euro added 0.46% to $1.1428. 

OIL (WTIC) rose today 4.99% to $46.75, but remains within a lethal rising wedge, and can only negate that danger by closing above & outside the wedge, way around $49. Chart's at, 
Dollar fell, gold & silver rose. Silver added 22.7¢ (1.33%) to 1730.2¢. Gold advanced $10.70 (0.85%) for a $1,274.60 Comex close. 

Today was thrilling, but answered no questions & proved no intents. Silver & gold remain trapped within trading ranges, and short term downtrends. Now closes above $1,306 and 1806¢ are needed to prove a rally dependable. 

Still, both stubbornly refuse to collapse in the face of terrifyingly bad Commitments of Traders reports, and both remain above their 20 day moving averages, first tripwire of a decline. How does that fit together with the bearish sign of gold walking through its uptrend line from January? 

Beats me. Here's a gold chart, and here's silver, 

The gold silver ratio chart speaks plainly, though. March first the ratio peaked at the top of its trading range (green lines) at 84.38. Then it deteriorated, painting an even-sided triangle and plunging out of that with a Thump and a gap. Fell straight down through the 200 DMA. Plunged more, then gapped down through the bottom range boundary to 70.40 as April ended. Since then it has rallied, but only to the lower boundary line, and today has fallen again below its 20 DMA. All this says, "Silver is relatively strong, so a rally should continue." Whole picture shows a change of quality from the last 5 years. and one more witness that the December 2015 lows were THE bottom of the post-2011 correction.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.