I'll be away tomorrow, undergoing surgery on my toe, so I'm sending out the weekly wrap-up today.
Silver & gold prices corrected most of the week, no surprise after recent huge gains. Stocks are well and truly fractured, and show it. US dollar index most likely turned up this year, but with politically motivated currency exchange rates, that can turn on a dime, & Janet Yellen will chip in the dime.
US dollar index hit the bottom of the range (92.50) with a low at 91.88, then recovered with a key reversal that has lifted it for three days. Presumption floating in the air is that the dollar will now rush toward the range's top boundary (100). I still suspect the central banks have struck a deal to let the dollar sink a while, and with this dollar rise they are playing the market like you playing a big old bass on the line. But technically, at least, the dollar is forecasting higher prices. Here's the chart of the nasty thing, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT
Dow rose 9.45 (0.05%) to 17,660.71, but who do the Nice Government Men think they are kidding? Mercy, the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, S&P500, and Russell 2000 all fell. Dow's rise today is mere tape-painting for the headlines. Listen to my words: LOWER stock prices are coming soon. Stay in 'em at your own peril.
Dow in gold and Dow in silver both reinforced their downtrends this week. Dow in gold fell through the uptrend from the 2011 low, Dow in silver came close to setting a new low. Look here, http://schrts.co/ohwLZP and here, http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc
On Comex today gold fell $1.90 (0.15%) at the close, $1,271.40. Silver rose 2.5¢ to 1730.2¢, but those figures look a little low, judging by what I saw all day and by the aftermarket. There Gold is $1,277.70 and silver 1736¢.
Only one issue with the precious metals right now: will this be a large or small correction? That is, will it correct the entire rise from January, or has another leg up begun which, after this short, shallow correction, will at once climb higher? Unhappily for the curious, markets didn't tip their hand today. Gold closed barely below the uptrend line, but did the same all through April's latter half without ever breaking down.
Look, http://schrts.co/pI1ZgR Silver has backed off the top of a trading channel whose size was doubled when it broke through the upper boundary of the earlier channel, http://schrts.co/t9IUae
Normally that says, "Expect lower prices." Several factors witness a lot of speculative froth in the metals, thanks to central bank meddling. Now that they're meddling the other way, strengthening the dollar rather than weakening it, we'll see how much sinew that gold & silver demand really has. Personally I expect to see them rising into June, but the market may slap my jaws for a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee.
Of this much I remain sure: silver and gold turned up in December after a nearly 5 year downward correction. Stocks bull market topped in May 2015 and broke in August 2015. For the next 5 - 8 years expect higher, much higher silver & gold prices and lower, much lower stock prices.
Count on it.
Y'all pray for me, having to go under the knife tomorrow. I hope to send my next commentary on Monday, God willing.
Here are Special Offers, based on spot gold at $1,277.50 & spot silver at $17.40.
SPECIAL OFFER No. 1: ASSORTED TWENTY FRANCS
Napoleon Bonaparte, as emperor of France, reformed the French monetary system after the Revolutionary inflation destroyed the currency. He settled on a 90% fine (21.6 karat) 20 franc coin containing 0.1867 troy ounce of gold, and on that founded the Latin Monetary Union. All the nations who joined that union minted their gold coins to the same standard: French 20 francs, Swiss 20 francs, Belgian 20 francs, Italian 20 Lira, Greek 20 drachmai, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, and on and on.
Thanks to the big French empire, 20 franc coins of all the LMU nations rank among the most popular gold coins in the world, & are traded all over the globe.
I have MOSTLY French 20 franc Roosters, with a few Swiss 20 francs, Belgian, and Napoleon III. I will sell mixed types (my choice of types) at $249.25 each, a 4.5% premium over their gold content, based on spot gold at $1,277.50.
One lot contains Ten (10) Twenty franc gold coins at $249.25 each or a total of $2,492.50, plus $35 shipping for a total of $2,527.42. I have only 34 lots, and, YES, you may order multiple lots. Offer good only while supply lasts. If you order multiple lots, we only charge shipping ONCE.
OFFER NO. 2, GOLD BRITISH SOVEREIGN
The British empire's size and longevity made the British sovereign (one pound sterling) the most common and well-recognized gold coin in the world. Minted from 1818 until today, they are 22 karat (91-2/3% pure gold) & contain 0.2354 troy ounce fine gold. These are mildly circulated coins, in my choice of types: Jubilee Head Victoria, Veiled Head Victoria, Edward VII, George V, or even Elizabeth 1. All have the same reverse, Pistrucci's 1818 St. George slaying the dragon, with the reigning sovereign on the obverse.
One lot is Ten (10) British sovereigns at $312.15 each for a total of $3,121.50 plus $35 shipping, a grand total of $3,156.50 for 2.3540 troy ounces fine gold. With spot gold at $1,277.50, that's a 3.9% premium. Offer lasts only as long as supply lasts.
OFFER NO. 3, DIE STRUCK TEN OZ. SILVER BARS
Based on Spot Silver at $17.36, I will sell lots of Twelve (12) ten troy ounce die struck silver bars, my choice of brands, at $183.60 each, or a grand total of $2,203.20 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,238.20. Based on spot silver at $17.36, that's a 5.8% premium. Offer good for four lots only (plus one lot of 18 bars), and expires once those are spoken for. Yes, you may order multiple lots.
First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.
Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.
All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:
1. You may order by e-mail only to firstname.lastname@example.org. No phone orders, please.
Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.
Please mention goldprice.org in your email.
2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.
If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.
3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail, till supply is exhausted.
4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.
5. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.
7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.
Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.