|Here's the weekly scorecard:|
|Dow in GOLD $s||290.15||2.48||0.9|
|Dow in GOLD oz||14.04||0.12||0.9|
|Dow in SILVER oz||944.74||8.77||0.9|
|US Dollar Index||97.46||0.41||0.4|
'Twas a laborious, toilsome week for silver & gold. Gold ended the week little damaged, but silver lost 2.3%. Platinum couldn't break higher & ended only a tadge lower while palladium surged 5.6%. Stocks kept eking out gains, but not enthusiastically. US dollar index finally added a bit of fat, but only today.
I won't dwell on it, but y'all had better be paying attention to the banking mess in Europe. The banks are busted, and only because they are banks are they still standing, propped up by government. More: criminal kamikaze-Keynesian central bankers have blown up the greatest bubble in world history in government bonds. Count on it: there will be a default. You don't want to be a creditor in a default. Remember The Moneychanger's Rule For Staying Out of Bar Fights: leave the bar before the fight begins. I don't know when, but soon enough, the bust to end all busts will hit.
And now, a word about Long Spindly Rising Wedges (LSRW. Gaze upon the Dow chart, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0 and the S&P500 chart, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb
Both charts show LSRWs. The chart depicts a goosed market running out of fuel. Daily ranges become tighter and tighter, volume dwindles, upward momentum ceases, & the market plunges out of the wedge, or trades sideways & THEN plunges out of the wedge.
S&P500 today rose 53.62 (0.29%) to 18,570.85. SI&P500 inched out a new high at 2,175.03, up 9.86 (0.46%) from yesterday. LSRW.
Precious metals' weakness this week in the face of continuing stock strength has raised the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Dow in gold ended today at 14.03 oz, above the 50 day moving average, an argument for the end of the move. Dow in silver closed at 943.21 oz, just above the 20 DMA and a propitious place to turn 'round.
US dollar index displays a rising flat topped triangle with an upside breakout. Chart's at http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT
The breakout targets 98.3, but the dollar continues sluggish. I imagine the rest of the globe harbors abounding reasons to sell wherever their local fiat chips are and buy dollars, given the sorry state of their economies. That applies particularly to Europe and the developing world. Thus it continues to baffle me why the dollar isn't rising faster. Stocks seem to have profited well from the same motive in the last four weeks. Why not the dollar?
If it weren't for the Nice Government Men slowing the avalanche, the euro would have no future at all Look at this chart, http://schrts.co/HcRUv0
Euro broke down Tuesday from an even-sided triangle, languishes below its 200 DMA, and today spent the entire day below the triangle. Has not near-about stopped falling. Couldn't rouse that thing to life with a heavy duty set of jumper cables & a marine battery.
Japanese yen is foot-stepping & tripping over its 50 day moving average, well & truly broken down since the high early this month. Bank of Japan head talking it down as hard as he can, & more Abenomics coming, i.e., lots more yen printing, depreciation, & economic & market interference. A toxic cocktail.
Silver & gold "sort of" gainsaid yesterday's rise by falling back today. Comex gold lost $4.70 (0.6%) to $1,323.10. Silver backed up 12.7¢ (0.6%) to 1965.7¢.
Keep in the back of your mind that today is Friday, & traders like to close out positions before the weekend. Also keep in mind that today's lows in both metals were generously higher than yesterday's (1962¢ against 1927¢ & $1,319.40 against $1,310.70.
Actually, I DON'T think I am grasping at straws. Look at gold's chart, http://schrts.co/Eyyuq1 What was required of gold? Do NOT break down through the short term uptrend line from the $1,201.50 June low. So far, gold has nicely fielded that ball. Next, gold needs to rise above the top boundary of that bullish flag, if that's what it really is. Well, did that today, and even closed right on the line. As long as gold doesn't crack that uptrend, at $1,314 on Monday, it will survive jes' fine. Remember, gold is in an uptrend.
Expect strength, expect surprises, expect surprising strength.
What about silver? Well, look, http://schrts.co/2mPkwE
First thing I notice is that volume shrank today, on a down day, gainsaying that direction. Next I notice silver is above its 20 DMA (1958¢) & spent the whole day there. And it punched into the overhead downtrend line, if it failed to close up there.
So while metals might not take off running out of Monday's gate, they aren't about to collapse. To prove they have resumed their rally, silver still needs to close above 2010¢ and gold must conquer $1,335.
Here's a little favour I ask of y'all. If you have bought or sold gold & silver with us and were pleased with our services, would you please recommend us to your friends? If we didn't please you, call me on Monday & I'll straighten it out.
Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.